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The auction is not mentionable but the final contract is fair. You reach 6♠ by east without intervention and opponent leds ♥2 (third or lowest lead). What is your plan?
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What is the best line?
#1
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Posted 2010-November-05, 21:37
The auction is not mentionable but the final contract is fair. You reach 6♠ by east without intervention and opponent leds ♥2 (third or lowest lead). What is your plan?
#2
- World International Master without a clue
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Posted 2010-November-06, 04:34
need spades 2-2 or diamonds 3-3 (or jack falling) and barring that I need a 12th trick somewhere... why no tin hearts?
I put ♥Q, then ruff a diamond on hand whenever it wins or loses.
I put ♥Q, then ruff a diamond on hand whenever it wins or loses.
#3
- mmm Duvel
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Posted 2010-November-08, 06:37
♥Q. We still have plenty of chances if it loses, but if it wins we have a very easy ride home.
"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe
#4
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Posted 2010-November-08, 10:15
I'll give it a shot.
Say you play the A♥. You need to discard 4 clubs playing for one loser. Cash 2 top spades and play diamonds from the top, throwing clubs. If either spades are 2-2 or the jack falls, you have twelve tricks. When opponents ruff in or win their J♦, they've taken their first and last trick. Ruff a club to board and the other three are thrown on diamonds. 2-2 spades are 48%, and dropping the J is 61%, giving an 80% chance to make.
Say you try the Q♥. If this wins, you're home free, but if it fails... you've lost your one loser so you absolutely need spades to be 2-2. Assuming the finesse is 50%, you have strictly less than a 74% chance to make, no matter your chances of setting up diamonds.
Unless I'm wrong, there's no reason to risk losing a heart. You have 12 tricks on 80% of layouts.
Say you play the A♥. You need to discard 4 clubs playing for one loser. Cash 2 top spades and play diamonds from the top, throwing clubs. If either spades are 2-2 or the jack falls, you have twelve tricks. When opponents ruff in or win their J♦, they've taken their first and last trick. Ruff a club to board and the other three are thrown on diamonds. 2-2 spades are 48%, and dropping the J is 61%, giving an 80% chance to make.
Say you try the Q♥. If this wins, you're home free, but if it fails... you've lost your one loser so you absolutely need spades to be 2-2. Assuming the finesse is 50%, you have strictly less than a 74% chance to make, no matter your chances of setting up diamonds.
Unless I'm wrong, there's no reason to risk losing a heart. You have 12 tricks on 80% of layouts.
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