iscbrooks, on Aug 21 2004, 05:24 PM, said:
While I don't think all suits must be stopped for a 1NT opening, I generally draw the line at one unstopped suit. With two unstopped, it becomes extremely likely that defenders will run a suit. Add that 15 HCP is minimal for a 1NT opening (many even play 16-18), and I open 1C.
Is that just gut feel or have you run some computer sims? I have not done any computer sims but my gut feel is that this fear is groundless. Yes it can happen, and you can get a bad result as a result, but it is a numbers game and the alternatives are less palatable. I am not sure how likely you mean by "extremely likely" but I think it more likely that partner's length is opposite your shortage, and partner's values are opposite your weakness.
If partner has no values then by definition they must have running suits where yours are unguarded (unless partner has considerable length in those suits). However in that event you are no better off by having a guard in their suit. They will knock it out at trick 1, and they are certain to get in to cash the long cards before you establish your 7 tricks. The dangers are greater if responder has some values and you have gone to 3NT without identifying the weakness, but you will presumably have by then investigated a major suit fit or, failing that, extreme shortage, and if you have game values in total, no major suit fit and responder has no shortage then your best chance of making game is by being in 3NT and hoping that they don't find the killing lead. There has to be a chance of this succeeding, because if you have not exposed the weakness to your partner then neither have you exposed it to your opponents, and the one on lead may not have the length.
If they have a running suit that breaks evenly then they cannot cash more than 4 or 5 of them, on which you discard the losers that you expected to lose or you would have been higher than 1NT.
If they have a running suit that breaks unevenly then there is a good chance of their bidding it and rescuing you from 1NT. The person on opening lead having a solid suit may be an exception.
If they have a running suit and they do not bid it there is a good chance that they can make a partscore in that suit, and defeating your 1NT may be a poorer score. Even a strong 1NT opener has some preemptive effect.
There is a considerable population who find that it pays in the long run to play a mini 1NT (10-12/13 or even 9-11/12), at least at certain positions/vul/scoring, and even more who play 11/12-14. These players have no qualms about opening 1NT with two unguarded suits (else they would hardly ever open 1NT).
I doubt that this is an exhaustive list of examples of why it need not be a disaster to have an exposed suit or two when opening 1NT.
Psych (pron. saik): A gross and deliberate misstatement of honour strength and/or suit length. Expressly permitted under Law 73E but forbidden contrary to that law by Acol club tourneys.
Psyche (pron. sahy-kee): The human soul, spirit or mind (derived, personification thereof, beloved of Eros, Greek myth).
Masterminding (pron. m

s

t

r-m

nd

ing) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees.
"Gentlemen, when the barrage lifts." 9th battalion, King's own Yorkshire light infantry,
2000 years earlier: "morituri te salutant"
"I will be with you, whatever". Blair to Bush, precursor to invasion of Iraq