awm, on Jul 26 2010, 12:11 AM, said:
I'm not sure why 4♥X scores any points at all here, as it seems like a sure bottom board (-200 if you're lucky).
I'd also note that 3♣X is a top any time the contract fails, which I'd rate as rather more than the 20% odds which the current scoring seems to rate it at.
Not entirely sure what to make of suggested scoring changes here.
For awn's comment that 4
♥ should get a zero, 4
♥x scores better than both 4
♥xx and 4
♠x, both of which were played in this competition, in addition to 9 pairs playing in 4
♥x tying each other. Maybe I didn't score it high enough!!! I was thinking along the lines that -200 is a zero-ish. Furthermore 4
♥x will outscore 3
♣x making, so I could see a counter arguement that it needs to be bumped up just a little.
I agree 3
♣x is a top or bottom. I thought 3
♣x was making somewhere between 30 and 37% of the time. If it was a percentage points lower than 30%, it would be a 3, if it was higher than 37% it would be a 5 or higher. I thought this was a fair placement for that contract.
As for why a 10 for a reasonably normal 3
♥, I have two answers to that. I tried to make maximum on each hand at least a 10. See the hand where everyone bid 4
♠. That is probably not the best thing to do, but I confused myself initially by picking out hands based on specific NS hands, but that isn't fair way to do this. Round 2 will avoid this flaw in hand selection. Still on the given results. Having said that, if we matchpoint the 26 boards here, giving a top to the 3
♥, we find it earns 21.5 out of 26 possible matchpoints. As a percentage that is 82.7, and on a 12 point scale that works out to be 9.9. I don't calculate the matchpoints this way, however, I just used it to check teh arguement that heart part-score should be average on this hand.
So for the moment, the scores are staying were they are, but open questions are:
Should 4
♥x get a higher score?
Should 3
♣x get a higher score? Should it get a lower score? I will try some simulations.
Help
Board 4. Bidding Script: North will open or overcall in ♣'s as cheaply as possible, but not above 3♣. He will keep bidding ♣'s until 3♣ is reached. If north bids 2♣ it will be south who carries on to 3♣ if necessary. If west or east end up in 4♥'s or higher (in any denomination) south will double.
Notes: When played in real world, most seemed to think east is a little heavy for 1NT, no doubt due to the increased lighter and lighter nature of the 1NT overcall. The auction should be fairly straight foward with a 1NT overcall. West will try transfer to 2♥, and East will probably pass over 3♣ by north, so that west will be in position to take the push to 3♥.