[mikeh]

WellSpyder, on Jul 21 2010, 10:16 AM, said:

I wish I had read this post yesterday.  Last night I faced this decision:

Dealer: West Vul: N/S Scoring: IMP

♠ 107542 ♥ AJ952 ♦ A98 ♣

3♦ P P ?

Are the considerations much the same as in the OP? Certainly my worries over eg bidding 4♦ over a 4♣ response from partner if I doubled were similar to those expressed by Gnasher. In the end I decided that I didn't want to miss a Vul game and that it was worth getting to the right suit even if at the wrong level, so I risked 4♦, but without much conviction...

I wouldn't bid on this hand at all. One very important difference, in terms of the urgency behind bidding now, is that on the OP, there was a strong likelihood that partner, even with the strength we hope him to have, will have a hand on which he has no safe action. We are, there, short in diamonds and relatively strong in both majors. This means that he may be relatively weak in one or both majors and relatively strong/long in diamonds....thus causing him to pass.

Here, we have unexpected length in diamonds, and weak majors, both of which will increase the chances that he can bid...admittedly, we may not be out of the woods if he doubles, but I think we can safely bid 4♦ and then take another call... we will almost always have 5 level safety in one of our majors if he has a balancing double, and we can't afford to give up on slam.

Another problem with an immediate bid here is that partner should never play us for suits as weak as these....he is far too likely to drive us overboard. At least on the OP hand, we had enough strength in our suits that if he went nuts with 3 major suit honours, we'd have some hope of surviving...not here....Even AK/K leaves us with major suit losers whereas on the OP Q/AK solidified our suits.

[WellSpyder]

mikeh, on Jul 21 2010, 11:47 AM, said:

Another problem with an immediate bid here is that partner should never play us for suits as weak as these....he is far too likely to drive us overboard.

I agree this is a danger. Maybe, as aguahombre says, having passed once partner isn't going to the moon, but we could certainly end up uncomfortably high in the stratosphere.

I don't think hoping partner may be able to double if he has a suitable hand is the answer, though - maybe it's not that clear from the diagram that we are in the pass-out seat?

[JLOGIC]

Extremely surprised by all the people saying clear pass with that hand... if partner has a 4 card major we don't need much at all to make a game.

Edit: Mike, I assume you didn't see that we were in passout seat.

[ArtK78]

WellSpyder, on Jul 21 2010, 10:16 AM, said:

I wish I had read this post yesterday.  Last night I faced this decision:

Dealer: West Vul: N/S Scoring: IMP

♠ 107542 ♥ AJ952 ♦ A98 ♣

3♦ P P ?

Are the considerations much the same as in the OP? Certainly my worries over eg bidding 4♦ over a 4♣ response from partner if I doubled were similar to those expressed by Gnasher. In the end I decided that I didn't want to miss a Vul game and that it was worth getting to the right suit even if at the wrong level, so I risked 4♦, but without much conviction...

Anyone for 3♥ in passout? Surely it cannot be right to pass, but do you really want to commit this hand to game by bidding 4♦ or to a potentially very weak 5-3 spade fit?

[hanp]

I also didn't see we were in the passout seat. Isn't that alertable?

[whereagles]

JLOGIC, on Jul 21 2010, 05:08 PM, said:

Extremely surprised by all the people saying clear pass with that hand... if partner has a 4 card major we don't need much at all to make a game.

Edit: Mike, I assume you didn't see that we were in passout seat.

Pass out or no pass out, our diamond length means pard can't have much hcp. And even if he has like 3 diamonds, then RHO has none and breaks won't be kind.

I think there's a decent chance RHO is lurking in the bushes, so I pass too. Won't be surprised if dbl wins big, though.

[mikeh]

hanp, on Jul 21 2010, 12:56 PM, said:

I also didn't see we were in the passout seat. Isn't that alertable?

It should be...since I didn't see it!

Having seen it, I go back and bid 4♦

[WellSpyder]

JLOGIC, on Jul 21 2010, 12:08 PM, said:

Extremely surprised by all the people saying clear pass with that hand... if partner has a 4 card major we don't need much at all to make a game.

The good news is that partner did indeed have a 4-card major (♠QJ63♥8♦Q107♣QJ762). The bad news is that there was just a bit too much to do to make 4♠ opposite our ♠107542♥AJ952♦A98♣-, especially when trumps were 4-0! At least responder forgot to double with ♠AK98♥Q1074♦-♣AK1053!

I'm not sure what this proves, but whereagles was certainly right to worry about RHO lurking in the bushes even if she decided not to come out when the opportunity arose.