[Codo]

I do not belive that X will reach a 3-3 spade fit more then once a year. But despite this possiblility running to 2 NT is quite a big lol...

[gnasher]

1eyedjack, on Jul 12 2010, 09:55 PM, said:

(although one wonders if those voting pass recognise the hand, apart from jdonn wo recognised it and still protects).

Why would somebody voting in an anonymous poll use UI?

[gnasher]

The result at the table was unfortunate, but it's the sort of thing that will occasionally happen if you make these shapeless takeout doubles.

That isn't my main reason for rejecting a double, though: a much more common result is that it takes us from a small plus against 2♥ to a small minus in 2♠ or 3m. We have a good hand for defence, and a poor one for offense. There's a significant risk that the contract that we end up in will not be our best fit.

Double also lacks much of the normal upside of a takeout double. In general, a balancing takeout double may gain because:
- We can make a game
- Both sides can make a partscore
- Opponents misjudge and overcompete
- Partner leaves it in for penalty.

Taking them in reverse order:
- On this hand, partner will almost never be leaving the double in.
- It's not likely that they'll misjudge and compete to 3♥ when they shouldn't - LHO's hand is fairly well defined, and if RHO thought 3♥ was making he would probably already have raised.
- The chance that both sides can make a partscore is not enormous. For example, if you swap ♠A and ♠2 on the actual hand, 2♥ is probably making but 2♠ probably isn't. To get to a layout where both partscores make, you have to swap ♠A and ♠2 and make spades 3-2.
- Yes, we may make game, but only 3NT is at all probable. For game to be a reasonable prospect, we'll need to find partner with about 12-15, the wrong shape for a takeout double, and unsuitable for an overcall.

The more I think about it, the less I like double.

[JLOGIC]

gnasher, on Jul 13 2010, 03:43 AM, said:

For game to be a reasonable prospect, we'll need to find partner with about 12-15, the wrong shape for a takeout double, and unsuitable for an overcall.

Huh? Again this is where we disagree the most, we have 14 and a weak 2 bidder on our left and a great heart holding (for 3N). Generally after a weak 2 we can often make a game with less HCP than usual (obv you know this), especially without RHO having a fit (and even if he does, maybe LHO has no entry). A suit like Axx opp xx is no longer a huge liability, and Axx opp Jxx or Qx is awesome.

We can not only play it really well and guess stuff but play against 1 hand and endplay them etc needing 12 seems like an enormous overbid, opposite 10 and certainly 11 I'll take my chances in a vul 3N!

Also these 10-11 counts become way more likely than your 12-15 as he probably wouldn't have bid with any shape (except a stiff heart or maybe a 6 card spade suit) with that strength.

Opposite some 9 counts I might make 3N if they have a long minor. All of this becomes especially true if they need to lead a spade and won't find it.

Quote

- The chance that both sides can make a partscore is not enormous. For example, if you swap ♠A and ♠2 on the actual hand, 2♥ is probably making but 2♠ probably isn't. To get to a layout where both partscores make, you have to swap ♠A and ♠2 and make spades 3-2.

We are probably pretty similar in this area but maybe I'm more optimistic than you. Sometimes we catch partner with a long suit since he would need a pretty decent hand to overcall directly.

Quote

if RHO thought 3♥ was making he would probably already have raised.

This is a minor point because I basically agree with you, but just on a side rant I think it is often right to pass a weak 2 bid by partner with 3 hearts and a hand that will compete to 3H. Typically I would do this on a hand with a fair amount of HCP because I would not be worried about them making game, and also because if we have enough points it's possible that the 2H bid has shut them out if the hand with short hearts has the least HCP of the partnership, or if hearts are 2-2 and HCP are pretty evenly split.

EG RHO with up to 9 or 10 and a stiff heart will pass, and then LHO will have a normal pass with some heart length.

The only caveat being I'm not worried about them competing effectively to 3S either.

Also, there are definitely hands with a doubleton heart that I would compete to 3H with but not bid it directly.

But most people share your view so it doesn't matter much what I think in theory, in practice I agree with you that pushing them to 3H is a very very unlikely upside.

At the end of the day if you feel like there is not much chance of bidding and making a game then obviously your choice of pass is right since our hand is defensive if it's a partial hand. I am just surprised you're so pessimistic about it.

[MarkDean]

Justin - I think what gnasher meant was that we need partner to have 12-15 for him to bid 3NT, if he has 10-11, we will probably be in a partial (and possibly in a 43 fit).

[gnasher]

MarkDean, on Jul 13 2010, 04:57 PM, said:

Justin - I think what gnasher meant was that we need partner to have 12-15 for him to bid 3NT, if he has 10-11, we will probably be in a partial (and possibly in a 43 fit).

Actually, I'd just forgotten how many points I had

If partner has 10-11, presumably he'll bid a "good" 3m opposite our double, and we'll bid 3NT.