[Chamaco]

Scoring: IMP

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West North East South

 Pass  1♥    Pass  1NT!
 Pass  2♣    Pass  4♥
 Pass  Pass  Pass  


After ending up playing 4H, you receive a trump lead and dummy's J holds.
What is the best percentage play to guarantee the contract if club K is offside?

[Free]

You have 4 losers, so you only need to work one away. I suspect ♥K is offside, and trumps are 3-2 (no singletons in our hands). This also means ♦ will be 5-4, since nobody bid them (unless they are poor players).

I think the best line is to cash ♥A, and run the ♠s to discard a ♦, and ruff one ♦ afterwards in dummy. If they fail, you'll still get a chance to finesse ♣. This line works with ♥ 3-2, ♠ 3-3 or 4-2 with the 4 card together with the 3 card ♥, or ♣K onside, which are VERY probably hands imo.

[Cascade]

You cannot ruff the second diamond if when you lose the lead in diamonds they play a trump at you.

[whereagles]

If the club king is offside, small club to the jack at trick 2 should do it

[Chamaco]

Cascade, on Jul 27 2004, 08:48 AM, said:

You cannot ruff the second diamond if when you lose the lead in diamonds they play a trump at you.

After trump lead wo by the J and cashing trump ace at second round, if trumps are 3-2 , no trump can be led after ruffing a spade.
If trumps are 4-1, then another story

[Chamaco]

whereagles, on Jul 27 2004, 09:17 AM, said:

If the club king is offside, small club to the jack at trick 2 should do it

This way you risk losing 1 club, 2 diamonds and possibly a trump.
You are not sure yet you will be able to pick trump K.

[Free]

whereagles, on Jul 27 2004, 10:17 AM, said:

If the club king is offside, small club to the jack at trick 2 should do it

Then you better play ♣A first, followed by small ♣. They won't dare to play ♣K, they're afraid of the Queen

[luke warm]

i'd almost play free's line... 4 rounds of spades throwing a diamond, then lead a diamond (in case a trump comes back i still have the A)

[twcho]

I will choose the simplest line. Finesse in H again and if it fails then finesse C, give me 75% anyway. :-)

[whereagles]

Chamaco, on Jul 27 2004, 10:37 AM, said:

whereagles, on Jul 27 2004, 09:17 AM, said:

If the club king is offside, small club to the jack at trick 2 should do it 

This way you risk losing 1 club, 2 diamonds and possibly a trump.
You are not sure yet you will be able to pick trump K.

Ah yes, you're right. Guess the four rounds of spades starting at trick 2 is an ok line then. If I don't know of the club king, prolly I'd take the two finesses.

[Chamaco]

My first thought was to follow the line described by Fre:

- trump A then 4 round of spades discarding a diamond.
I thought that this was safe if:

1) Kx of trumps anywhere (odds should be around O1 =40%)


2.1) spades 3-3 (O2.1 =36%) OR
2.2) spades 4-2 and Kxx of trumps held by the "right" opp (O2.2 = about 24% e.g. half the time of any 4-2 split)

the combined possibility of 2.1 and 2.2 is
O2 =(100 - [(100-36)x (100-24)]/100 ) = around 52% or so

The combined odds of O1 and O2 is
OC(o1,o2) = (100 - [(100-40)x (100-52)])/100 = about 71 % of all the times the club finesse fails, which brings the total percentage of the play to about 85% (= (100- [(100-71)*(100-50)]) / 100).

So I thought that this chance was ubstantially better than finessing trumps (50%).

However, I did not realize at first that finesing trumps gains in an additional case:
when trumps split 4-1 with the king fourth onside.
In that case, the finesse picks up the K and saves a trump trick.
This layout of trumps would occur roughly 14% of the times.

This aditional constraint is making me confused about the odd calculation . Any help ?

[Free]

There's one thing I forgot in my line. Opps might not ruff your ♠ trick, and get in the right hand to play ♥, disabling your ♦ ruff. Then however, you can still take the ♣ finesse. Perhaps a falsecarding ♦ at trick 2 can help before playing ♥A, to set up the ruff for sure. If they however continue ♦, you're back at your ♣ finesse again

[Flame]

Chamaco, on Jul 27 2004, 04:36 AM, said:

Cascade, on Jul 27 2004, 08:48 AM, said:

You cannot ruff the second diamond if when you lose the lead in diamonds they play a trump at you.

After trump lead wo by the J and cashing trump ace at second round, if trumps are 3-2 , no trump can be led after ruffing a spade.
If trumps are 4-1, then another story

He didnt say that spade is going to be ruffed, but when u play diamond the player who takes it will play a trump.

I must say i see here many lines that i suspect you will never try at the table.
Lines that assume bad things (because its the forum) like K of heart offside and K of club offside (even when he told us at the question, its still wrong to assume that)

I think the best line is spade to the A and J of club, this line might work if hearts are 4-1, when K of club is onside. (not sure about this, maybe just play simple to the Q of heart like 99% of us would do at the table)

[Chamaco]

Flame, on Jul 27 2004, 12:18 PM, said:

I must say i see here many lines that i suspect you will never try at the table.
Lines that assume bad things (because its the forum) like K of heart offside and K of club offside (even when he told us at the question, its still wrong to assume that)

Ok, ready to listen here

[Flame]

Chamaco, on Jul 27 2004, 07:23 AM, said:

Flame, on Jul 27 2004, 12:18 PM, said:

I must say i see here many lines that i suspect you will never try at the table.
Lines that assume bad things (because its the forum) like K of heart offside and K of club offside (even when he told us at the question, its still wrong to assume that)

Ok, ready to listen here

Let me tell you something from my long bridge expirence, bridge is a simple game, one of the simplest there is, the winner is usually the one who make less mistakes.

[Chamaco]

Flame, on Jul 27 2004, 12:31 PM, said:

Let me tell you something from my long bridge expirence, bridge is a simple game, one of the simplest there is, the winner is usually the one who make less mistakes.

LOL, everytime I handle it that way, my play becomes superficial...
Another case of Murphy's Law ?
More seriously, most "trivial" expert plays (safety plays, throw ins , correct handing of card combinations) are not quite easy as you say

Therefore it is easy for a learning player to "mastermind himself", sometimes looking for the "non trivial" even when the play is straightforward.

I have a long experience too, but in chess, and I have seen many of my chess students do the same.
I guess it is normal... sigh...

[the hog]

"If the club king is offside, small club to the jack at trick 2 should do it "

Great line! Lose a C, 2D and a H.
Free's line is sensible.

[inquiry]

A couple of quick issues.

1) Free's line of Club Ace and low club where "they will not dare play the king because they are afriad of the queen" is wrong. West, with three clubs to the king willl pop up with the knig and try to give his partenr a club ruff...since south bid 2♣ presumably a three card suit.. 5+3+3 means partner has doubleton.

2) Playing a second round of hearts and then playing on spades will not work, as the will win and plug away at trumps, before you can ruff a diamond.. even if you get to throw a diamond off dummy. Surely leader does not have AKQ of diamonds, so his partner will have diamnd entry to lead through you. They don't even have to ruff the fourth spade... just when they get in, manage to cash the heart king by using diamonds as correct transportation.

That leaves just two lines of play. The first is the straight foward, try one finessee (hearts) and if that loses, try the other (as correctly suggested by twcho (actually, I think the odds strangly enough might only be only 74% but he is correct in principal).

This line could be improved slighly. After wiinnig the heart JACK, you could play a diamond to the TEN (or JACK). If East wins, his best play is to take a second diamond. But he might do two things good for us. He might plug away at trumps (real good for us), he might lead a spade (ok for us),

If he leads a trump, no problem If he cashes second diamnd, we are back to the two hook lines as if we didn't play on diamonds. If he leads a spade, win in dummy and lead teh HEART TEN. West with four to he K98x will "obviously" cover, so if he doesn't cover, go up with ace and now play on spades for the diamond discard and diamond ruff. By playing on diamond before running spades, you cut their communication to get a third round of trumps played.

All in all, I would go with this line.. If when in with diamond, they lead club through dummy, I revert to the double hook line so the diamond play has not prevented me from trying what is the best line (IMHO). Same is true if they cash their second diamond before leading anything else.

Ben

[Free]

This is what I suggested in my last post... I think opps can make the mistake of not cashing their ♦s (and then I suggest playing ♥A and ♠s), and if they don't we still have the ♣ finesse and ♥ finesse.

I didn't say you should play ♣A and small to ♣ just like that, I said IF ♣K is offside, this is a better play than just a small ♣ to the J.

[whereagles]

The_Hog, on Jul 27 2004, 01:35 PM, said:

"If the club king is offside, small club to the jack at trick 2 should do it "

Great line! Lose a C, 2D and a H.
Free's line is sensible.

What's this? Didn't you read my 2nd post?