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Vugraph 6S play

#1 User is offline   kgr 

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Posted 2010-June-05, 06:38

Scoring: MP

EW always pass:
1S-2C
2NT-3S
4C-4D
4NT-5S
6S-AP

LHO leads ♥6.
What is %-play to make this?
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#2 User is offline   Hanoi5 

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Posted 2010-June-05, 06:58

♥A and ♠Q? Around 50% I guess.

View Postwyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:

Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the ♥3.


View Postrbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:

Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win


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#3 User is offline   Jlall 

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Posted 2010-June-05, 11:21

Definitely take the finesse, it's not close.
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#4 User is offline   kgr 

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Posted 2010-June-05, 18:31

I was mislead by commentators, who said that declarer was gonna make +1. LHO had ♠K singleton and declarer did go -2.
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#5 User is offline   lmilne 

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Posted 2010-June-05, 23:02

lol, commentators were GIBing it up, as per normal
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#6 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2010-June-06, 07:18

kgr, on Jun 5 2010, 07:31 PM, said:

I was mislead by commentators, who said that declarer was gonna make +1. LHO had ♠K singleton and declarer did go -2.

perhaps they were of the opinion that playing for the stiff K♠ combined with playing ♣ for ♦ pitches was better than the straight finesse
"Tell me of your home world, Usul"
the Freman, Chani from the move "Dune"

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#7 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2010-June-06, 07:22

yes they were but they were wrong.
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
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#8 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2010-June-06, 07:48

gwnn, on Jun 6 2010, 08:22 AM, said:

yes they were but they were wrong.

you mean they were "demonstrating their humanity" :)
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#9 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2010-June-06, 07:49

they were providing an unfortunate counterargument to my suggestion that commentators should not be discouraged from using GIB
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
      George Carlin
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#10 User is offline   ceeb 

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Posted 2010-June-06, 11:40

Combining chances is a great principle, but there is also a principle that a lot of small chances may not add up to much.

Playing ♠A then ♣s is at most 30% total chance:
Singleton king either side -- about 12%
Long ♣ and long ♠ with RHO -- if lead shows ♥ length, about 10%
♣ 3-3 and RHO has ♠Kxx -- 7%
Long ♣ and long ♠ with LHO (along with the long ♥s) -- 1%.
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#11 User is offline   OleBerg 

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Posted 2010-June-06, 12:01

Much would be achieved, if some commentators could only see two hands.

If Roland asks me to comment again I'll try it. (Duct tape.)
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Do not underestimate the power of the dark side. Or the ninth trumph.

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We should always assume 2/1 unless otherwise stated, because:

- If the original poster didn't bother to state his system, that means that he thinks it's obvious what he's playing. The only people who think this are 2/1 players.

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