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Lead vs. 3NT Own long suit or safety?

#1 User is offline   paulhar 

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Posted 2004-July-29, 14:51

You are on lead with:

S-842
H-KJ82
D-972
C-983

RHO bids 1NT (15-17). LHO bids 3NT.

(1) your lead at matchpoints?
(2) your lead at IMPs?
I tend to lead fourth best - as opposed to the best suit, the second best suit, or the third best suit for our side
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#2 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2004-July-29, 16:41

8 at both
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#3 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2004-July-29, 16:47

2 of H at both. The auction screams for a major suit lead and H loks like the best bet.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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#4 User is offline   twcho 

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Posted 2004-July-30, 01:18

H2 for both scoring
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#5 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2004-July-30, 03:33

2 in MP, like the field I guess
8 in imps
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#6 User is offline   luis 

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Posted 2004-July-30, 07:03

I can't remember the thread (Ben surely knows)...
Some time ago I conducted a simulation and study about the lead against the auction 1N-3N when the leader has from 0 to 7 HCP. The results were surprising, one common rule was that with 4333 hands you should lead your 3 card major not the 4 card suit. Even when you have values in the 4 card suit and nothing in the 3 card suit.
3 card majors were better than 3 card minors since the 1N-3N auction tends to make your pd have more major suit cards than responder usually.
The logic behind this is that the best approach to defeat 3N when holding a bad hand is to find pd's good suit and after 1N-3N when you have 3 in a major there are chances that pd has 5.

So no matter the result a spade is the correct theorical lead on this hand.

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#7 User is offline   Trpltrbl 

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Posted 2004-July-30, 13:21

Since I am an old man, I keep leading 4th from my longest and strongest.

Mike :D
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#8 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2004-July-30, 16:39

my reasoning was simple... if i lead a heart i throw away 2, possibly 3, tricks (potentially)... the spade has a chance to hit partner big time, and the 8 shows that i want him to continue spades only if he thinks it's right

true, leading the low heart can work out... i'd bet against it tho.. with 5 cards it's a little easier, tho i still have no entries
"Paul Krugman is a stupid person's idea of what a smart person sounds like." Newt Gingrich (paraphrased)
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