[kayin801]

Scoring: MP

(P)-1NT*-(P)-3NT-AP

*: 10-12 (no, you don't respect the field)

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♦ four (4th best), three, KING, two
♦ eight, jack, queen, ACE
♥ jack, six, ACE, three
♥ ten, queen, KING, two
♣ five, eight, two, NINE
♦ seven, TEN, six, five
♣ ACE, four, three, jack
♣ KING, six, seven, queen
♥ four, spade three, NINE, five
♥ seven, diamond nine, EIGHT, spade 4
?

Short story: You've taken 8 tricks, and the spade Q is still outstanding

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Opponents are unknown quantities, standard leads and carding.

[MFA]

I think west is ♠Qxx and east ♠xxxx. But obv I can't be sure. I would not have put myself in this position where it costs an extra trick to guess wrongly. Just cash hearts and play west for ♠Qxx since so many players would prefer to lead from xxx rather than Q empty fourth in diamonds (but not from ♠Qxx).

[awm]

Kind of wish I'd taken the spade finesse earlier instead of this club ducking play. While cashing all the winners can help to get a count, it also creates the risk of making only nine tricks if the spade finesse loses and they can cash a winning minor suit card. Some of the field will be in a heart game on the auction Pass-1♣-1♥-3♥-4♥ or the like, and there is a good chance we beat them even if we make only ten tricks... but nine tricks is not so hot.

Anyway, having cashed all these winners as if I'm in 5NT and need to make it for a good board, I guess I should back my judgment and decide who to hook. LHO pitched his established diamond so I'll play him for guarding the spade queen and finesse that way. Obviously a really good LHO would pitch a diamond with three little spades just to confuse me, but most weak players won't ditch a winner to protect three small cards in another suit.

[jdonn]

Agree with the others that I would have taken my spade play earlier. Anyway when it comes down to it I'm not going to risk going down when I have 10 tricks in notrump since I expect a ton of people to be in 4♥ making 9 or 10 tricks.

[xcurt]

agree the board is most likely already won. as such we must cash out 430 now. this implies the club ducking play was silly since even if we got a count making it 5:2 to play someone for the sq we would still probably be laying enough mp odds that its not worth the risk

making 11 tricks in hearts needs all of

h guess
opps break diamonds prob at t1
s guess

thats a big parlay

[Bbradley62]

East holds the ♣10 because West would have led from ♣QJT9 instead of a low ♦, so West holds three ♠ and East holds only two. For reasons everyone else stated, I have no intention of finessing, but I'll cash the K first then lead the 10 to make it look like I guessed right if East has the Q.

[hanp]

Instead of ducking the clubs, I would have played all my hearts instead. Even if you are planning to give up a club, I prefer to play the hearts first because the defenders might have a harder time pitching when they don't know the club situation.

Also, if LHO pitches a diamond on the hearts you can cash the third diamond and if you then have a good idea of the count and the opponents discarded a few clubs, you can play three rounds of clubs forcing the opponents to break spades.

[petterb]

West has 4243. Wouldn't he prefer a spade lead over a diamond lead if he had Qxxx/Qx/Qxxx/QJx?

[Bbradley62]

petterb, on May 29 2010, 09:32 AM, said:

West has 4243. Wouldn't he prefer a spade lead over a diamond lead if he had Qxxx/Qx/Qxxx/QJx?

"Fourth from longest and strongest" would mean low from ♦Q974 instead of ♠Q972

[phil_20686]

Bbradley62, on May 29 2010, 08:50 AM, said:

petterb, on May 29 2010, 09:32 AM, said:

West has 4243. Wouldn't he prefer a spade lead over a diamond lead if he had Qxxx/Qx/Qxxx/QJx?

"Fourth from longest and strongest" would mean low from ♦Q974 instead of ♠Q972

Even moderate players know that no stayman favours a major suit lead over a minor suit lead. I suspect that east has it for this reason. And i expect it will drop.

[gnasher]

xcurt, on May 29 2010, 02:15 AM, said:

making 11 tricks in hearts needs all of

h guess
opps break diamonds prob at t1

If you've got this far, there is no need for

Quote

s guess

because you have an elimination. Of course, you might already have used the elimination to get them to break the diamond suit.