[the hog]

bluecalm, on May 26 2010, 06:55 PM, said:

I think I have huge hand opposite ♦ splinter. I have no idea how to explore though.

No you don't. You just lost a 5 catd suit and 4 points. Sad, but I am bidding 4H.

[bluecalm]

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No you don't. You just lost a 5 catd suit and 4 points. Sad, but I am bidding 4H.

Yeah that's first instinct of many people it seems.
I guess if this hand was presented with xxxxx of ♦ instead of KJTxx people would be willing to go to slam.
This is one of those judgement things. If you have 6th trump and stiff/void opposite splinter bid your hand is huge almost regardless of the rest and here rest is pretty encouraging.
I am quite convinced 4♥ is just judgement blunder here.

[655321]

Add me to the 5♥ club.

We have a great hand without another clear bid.

[the hog]

bluecalm, on May 27 2010, 08:28 AM, said:

Quote

No you don't. You just lost a 5 catd suit and 4 points. Sad, but I am bidding 4H.

Yeah that's first instinct of many people it seems.
I guess if this hand was presented with xxxxx of ♦ instead of KJTxx people would be willing to go to slam.
This is one of those judgement things. If you have 6th trump and stiff/void opposite splinter bid your hand is huge almost regardless of the rest and here rest is pretty encouraging.
I am quite convinced 4♥ is just judgement blunder here.

Ah, but if you removed the KJ of Ds you would not have responded 2H in the first place. I am convinced that trying for slam is just a judgement blunder. Now, if responder can kick again....

[Winstonm]

That's a whole lot of losing diamonds on a trump lead. Side-suit misfit slams tend to be dicey, anyway. 4H. I hate myself for being chicken.

[mikeh]

Winstonm, on May 26 2010, 09:49 PM, said:

That's a whole lot of losing diamonds on a trump lead.  Side-suit misfit slams tend to be dicey, anyway.  4H.  I hate myself for being chicken.

You're not being kind to us chickens! I'm board-certified as a chicken....you can ask almost any of my partners over the past 30 years, and even I bid beyond 4♥!

As it is, I think you miss the significance of the diamond 10, after a trump lead. Win in dummy and lead a diamond. You will get this right way more than 50% of the time even against some good opps....after all, ducking with Ax or Axx rarely helps the defence. And if you misguess, or both honours are offside, you can ruff one and then try a ruffing finesse.

Finally, why take an action that makes you hate yourself? This game should be fun!

[Phil]

Winstonm, on May 26 2010, 09:49 PM, said:

That's a whole lot of losing diamonds on a trump lead. Side-suit misfit slams tend to be dicey, anyway. 4H. I hate myself for being chicken.

Easy to see how we only might need 3 diamond ruffs to set up the suit. Or RHO flies ace or RHO shows out allowing a ruffing finesse.
Maybe we ruff out Axx and sometimes we guess this combo right ATT.

I like my chances.

[fromageGB]

Those who go higher than game may be non-2/1 players. As I play 2/1 I have already shown most of my hand by the 2♥ GF. Being void in partner's suit is not good for setting it up ; if partner is void in diamonds I can't set that up. So not a good prospect if he does not have AK in clubs.

Another factor too is that if 2♥ is GF, an opener with a fit who thinks that there are slam prospects if responder does not have decent extra values, has the option to bid 3♥ to set the suit and start a cue bidding sequence. He failed to do this. Ergo he is minimum and a misfit minimum at that.

I'll stick with the 4♥.

[bluecalm]

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Ah, but if you removed the KJ of Ds you would not have responded 2H in the first place. I am convinced that trying for slam is just a judgement blunder. Now, if responder can kick again....

Haha, it would be nice if there was a way to settle this. Then we could bet
The only things left for us as it is endless polling among better players (some of them posted in this thread) and living with sense of being right

[pooltuna]

bluecalm, on May 27 2010, 11:56 AM, said:

Quote

Ah, but if you removed the KJ of Ds you would not have responded 2H in the first place. I am convinced that trying for slam is just a judgement blunder. Now, if responder can kick again....

Haha, it would be nice if there was a way to settle this. Then we could bet
The only things left for us as it is endless polling among better players (some of them posted in this thread) and living with sense of being right

That is why we run simuls...so we can get a sense of the associated probabilities. I would suspect one hand should be a minimal opener with 5+ ♠ and 4+♥ and exactly one ♦ and the other hand the one the OP presented and then let the hand generators and DD players fly.

[ggwhiz]

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I agree that the choice is between 4H and 5H.

Glass half full 5♥ for me.

I suspect the safety play 4♥ bidders are rarely seen without an umbrella.

[bluecalm]

Quote

That is why we run simuls...so we can get a sense of the associated probabilities. I would suspect one hand should be a minimal opener with 5+ ♠ and 4+♥ and exactly one ♦ and the other hand the one the OP presented and then let the hand generators and DD players fly.

Are hands with stiff A♦ possible ?
Kxxxx Axxx A Kxxx ? If not I will run a simul with opener being 11-14 5-6♠-4♥;
Unfortunately it's not the whole story because the preffered bid here is 5♥ (I didn't think of it but now I am 5♥ bidder after seeing Mikeh's explanation) and we would need to run 2 simuls:
a)how often is 5♥ safe
b)how often 6♥ is making opposite hand which accepts invite;

b)is kinda difficult to set good constraints to; I am the last person to say that but I also think that when in slam zone dd simuls give too much to declarer;

Other way would be to generate say 50 hands and see what would happen. I am afraid this is work a person may only do at home alone as I can't imagine posting 50 generated hands here and having anything resembling good debate on "what would happen".