[ashdown4]

Scoring: IMP

PASS PASS 1♦ 1♥
1NT ... 3♥** ??
** preemptive

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Match 1 of a regional swiss was full of swings. With one hand to go you are not sure who is ahead. Another potentially swingy board arrives from the other table.

[MarkDean]

I am going to be really greedy and bid 3NT. A good pd will produce Jxx Axx Kxx Jxxx.

[jdonn]

Whaaaat? Please pass, not close.

[Jlall]

jdonn, on Apr 26 2010, 10:55 PM, said:

Whaaaat? Please pass, not close.

You're a towel!

[aguahombre]

MarkDean, on Apr 26 2010, 08:46 PM, said:

I am going to be really greedy and bid 3NT.  A good pd will produce Jxx Axx Kxx Jxxx.

There is one big problem with that hand opposite. Partner will double their 4H "SAC".

[MarkDean]

aguahombre, on Apr 26 2010, 09:07 PM, said:

MarkDean, on Apr 26 2010, 08:46 PM, said:

I am going to be really greedy and bid 3NT.  A good pd will produce Jxx Axx Kxx Jxxx.

There is one big problem with that hand opposite. Partner will double their 4H "SAC".

Why do you think I gave him the jack of spades?

[whereagles]

Super-easy 4♦. No way I'm sellin' out to 3♥.

[ArtK78]

Pass. Unless you are playing adjective bridge and can bid "4 final diamonds."

[MarkDean]

I seem to be the only person who likes 3NT. I had a talk with Alex about the hand, and I think perhaps the passers have some more to consider.

First off, let me ask, what do you think the odds are that partner has the king of diamonds?

Regardless of your answer to that question, I think of the possibilities in two categories:

1) LHO is going to bid 4♥ if we pass
2) He is going to pass.

In case 1), LHO is likely to bid 4♥ anyways, and we are not really any worse off. Partner already showed a likely heart trick with 1NT, so if he doubles, I think we are odds on to beat it.

In case 2), there is a decent chance that we are slated for -140. That makes the odds of bidding a vul game quite different (although there is certainly the possibility of -200, 300, or even 400 in 3NT, or -200 in 4Dx, which pushes it in the other direction). It also has the chance of them taking a phantom (+50/100 is a lot better than -140).

[bid_em_up]

Maybe I'm just brain-dead. Can somebody please format the auction properly?

[ArtK78]

MarkDean, on Apr 29 2010, 10:54 PM, said:

I seem to be the only person who likes 3NT.  I had a talk with Alex about the hand, and I think perhaps the passers have some more to consider.

Let's see.

I opened 1♦ in third seat holding two aces and a queen. Now you want me to bid 3NT?

You could be right - partner could have a heart winner and Kxx of diamonds. Of course, the opponents, knowing that this is a possibility, might do something that is in their best interest - lead clubs. They could have five clubs and one or two heart winners or some other combination that adds up to 6 tricks. Or they could lead a club and get a heart through partner's Kxx of hearts, and wind up taking some astronomical number of tricks.

And then there are the 9000 hands where partner does not have the magic diamond holdings - Kx or better. In that case, you might go down 3, 4 maybe even 5 tricks. How does -500 look opposite the opponents' (hypothetical) heart game?

3NT is a top or bottom bid, and I am guessing that there is about a 15%/85% split between top and bottom. Given that this is IMPs, I suspect that you are likely to lose IMPs far more often than you win them by bidding 3NT. And this doesn't even take into account hands where partner has good hearts (like QJTx) but short diamonds for his 1NT bid. Suppose partner holds:

KTx QJTx x JTxxx

What is he supposed to bid over P - (P) - 1♦ - (1♥)? Now, if one of the opponents has good diamonds (say, KQx or better) you could get doubled in 3NT and in 4♦ if you choose to run.

3NT is a very dangerous bid. It has an upside, but the downside is very large.

[Jlall]

MarkDean, on Apr 29 2010, 10:54 PM, said:

I seem to be the only person who likes 3NT.  I had a talk with Alex about the hand, and I think perhaps the passers have some more to consider.

First off, let me ask, what do you think the odds are that partner has the king of diamonds?

Regardless of your answer to that question, I think of the possibilities in two categories:

1)  LHO is going to bid 4♥ if we pass
2)  He is going to pass.

In case 1), LHO is likely to bid 4♥ anyways, and we are not really any worse off.  Partner already showed a likely heart trick with 1NT, so if he doubles, I think we are odds on to beat it.   

In case 2), there is a decent chance that we are slated for -140.  That makes the odds of bidding a vul game quite different (although there is certainly the possibility of -200, 300, or even 400 in 3NT, or -200 in 4Dx, which pushes it in the other direction).  It also has the chance of them taking a phantom (+50/100 is a lot better than -140).

The fact that it's a save is good, but as you alluded to 3N is usually going to be down multiple (vul) if it's down imo.

Also, I would expect to beat 3H most of the time, we have a good defensive hand (ace empty in our long suit, and an ace and a queen).

If you changed this hand a little I would like 3N more, it's still a funny bid and I think anyone who actually tries it has [a lot of courage].

Still -200 or -300 into +50 really worries me.

[jdonn]

Does partner know to pull with a stiff diamond? We may not even be the side that can make 3NT on this hand!

[Jlall]

jdonn, on Apr 30 2010, 12:32 PM, said:

Does partner know to pull with a stiff diamond? We may not even be the side that can make 3NT on this hand!

A stiff diamond? Seriously? Maybe he should learn not to bid 1N with a stiff lol*

*In before 3415 with stiff honor and bad clubs example hand. KJx KTxx K xxxxx?

Anyways I think he has a stiff diamond to bid 1N like less than 1 % of the time.

[jdonn]

My second point was quite valid, let's focus on that. And I bet it's more like 4% of the time so up yours partner.

[ashdown4]

Scoring: IMP

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At the table 3H made 3, as defense scored 3 aces and a spade ruff. We lost 7 imps to 130 at the other table (don't know the auction). 3NT our way was on. Not very surprising now that I think about it.

One hand proves nothing, of course.

[MarkDean]

Well at least 3NT got some more votes after the hand was posted.

[olliebol]

Can i change my vote?