Help
Defence:
♣A-♣4-♣7-♣6
♣K-♣5-♣2-♣8
♣T-♣Q-♣J-♠6
What is your plan?
Page 1 of 1
Play 4H
#1
- Group: Full Members
- Posts: 323
- Joined: 2008-May-26
- Location:London
- Interests:Genetic Engineering, Squash, Languages, Travelling, Table Tennis, Movies, Judo, Swimming, Scuba Diving, Climbing...
Posted 2010-April-12, 09:02
Defence:
♣A-♣4-♣7-♣6
♣K-♣5-♣2-♣8
♣T-♣Q-♣J-♠6
What is your plan?
♣ Veni, vidi, proficisci ♣
#2
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 1,459
- Joined: 2007-June-03
- Gender:Male
Posted 2010-April-12, 09:39
If hearts are 2-2, the 8 can be an entry to dummy in case the spades are 3-3. Since I need to cash the AK of spades before drawing a second round of trumps (using the King as entry to ruff a spade), I may risk a spade ruff (~16%), but the upside is good.
If hearts/spades don't work out for me, I'll fall back on the King of diamonds.
Actually, if hearts ARE 2-2, but spades are 2-4 with east, I can endplay east into leading diamonds up to my king.
If hearts/spades don't work out for me, I'll fall back on the King of diamonds.
Actually, if hearts ARE 2-2, but spades are 2-4 with east, I can endplay east into leading diamonds up to my king.
Still decidedly intermediate - don't take my guesses as authoritative.
"gwnn" said:
rule number 1 in efficient forum reading:
hanp does not always mean literally what he writes.
hanp does not always mean literally what he writes.
#3
- Group: Full Members
- Posts: 357
- Joined: 2008-May-19
- Gender:Male
- Location:India
Posted 2010-April-12, 09:48
Quote
If hearts are 2-2, the 8 can be an entry to dummy in case the spades are 3-3.
Also, works if spade is 4-2 and QJ falls.
Quote
Actually, if hearts ARE 2-2, but spades are 2-4 with east, I can endplay east into leading diamonds up to my king.
Yes, but then wouldn't you be down already?
All your ace are belong to us!
#4
- Group: Full Members
- Posts: 323
- Joined: 2008-May-26
- Location:London
- Interests:Genetic Engineering, Squash, Languages, Travelling, Table Tennis, Movies, Judo, Swimming, Scuba Diving, Climbing...
Posted 2010-April-12, 09:50
How do you get to 16% for a ♠ ruff by the opponents?
♣ Veni, vidi, proficisci ♣
#5
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 1,459
- Joined: 2007-June-03
- Gender:Male
Posted 2010-April-12, 10:10
Spades are 5-1 or 6-0 around 16%, right? Admittedly, chances of a ruff are a bit less, since I'm cashing the A♥ straight away - there's always a chance that the short spade hand is also short in hearts.
True, though I wouldn't give it much thought at the table. If it happens, I'll certainly notice it.
Quote
Also, works if spade is 4-2 and QJ falls.
True, though I wouldn't give it much thought at the table. If it happens, I'll certainly notice it.
Still decidedly intermediate - don't take my guesses as authoritative.
"gwnn" said:
rule number 1 in efficient forum reading:
hanp does not always mean literally what he writes.
hanp does not always mean literally what he writes.
#6
- Group: Full Members
- Posts: 323
- Joined: 2008-May-26
- Location:London
- Interests:Genetic Engineering, Squash, Languages, Travelling, Table Tennis, Movies, Judo, Swimming, Scuba Diving, Climbing...
Posted 2010-April-12, 10:19
LHO is unlikely to be short in ♥s and ♠s I think, it would place him with too many ♦s for his 2♣ bid. RHO short in ♥ and ♠ would give LHO too many ♠s for 2♣.
If you take into account the bidding and play so far, I do think that the odds of a ♠ ruff are lower than 16%. For example with QJ9852 RHO would quite likely have opened 2♠ at this vul. LHO with 6♠ and 5♣s seems strange too given his 2♣ overcall. With 5♠+5♣ LHO most likely would not have overcalled 2♣ either. LHO has shown 5♣s so far and is limited to 4♦s for his 2♣ bid. So the only possible layout for a ♠ ruff is 1=3=4=5 with LHO. That layout seems unlikely given the fact he has not played a ♠ so far.
Admittedly most of these are guesses but I would expect them to hold true against most players who are intermediate or better.
If you take into account the bidding and play so far, I do think that the odds of a ♠ ruff are lower than 16%. For example with QJ9852 RHO would quite likely have opened 2♠ at this vul. LHO with 6♠ and 5♣s seems strange too given his 2♣ overcall. With 5♠+5♣ LHO most likely would not have overcalled 2♣ either. LHO has shown 5♣s so far and is limited to 4♦s for his 2♣ bid. So the only possible layout for a ♠ ruff is 1=3=4=5 with LHO. That layout seems unlikely given the fact he has not played a ♠ so far.
Admittedly most of these are guesses but I would expect them to hold true against most players who are intermediate or better.
♣ Veni, vidi, proficisci ♣
Page 1 of 1
(Pass)-1♥-(2♣)-2♥
(Pass)-4♥