[ashdown4]

Scoring: MP

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The following opening lead problem came up in a recent matchpoint tournament.

My RHO opened 1♠ in the second chair, a suit that he would name 4 times in their uncontested sequence:

1♠ 2♦
2♠ 3♥
3♠ 4♥
4♠ PASS

Opponents clarified that 2♦ was natural Game Forcing, and all of their subsequent bids were natural.

Lead = ????

[aguahombre]

thinking is over rated. I lead a club. Thinking my heart ace went away.

[rogerclee]

I led the ♥A on a different auction. I'd do it on this one too.

[Jlall]

This is the best lead problem ive seen on here.

If dummy is 1561 a trump might be best to stop ruffs, but the HA might be good to cash out. A diamond might be good to kill dummy.

With that shape he MIGHT bid 4S though, so if we place him with 0562 then a club might be good to get our clubs going while we have the HA, or the HA might be good to cash our winners before they get pitched, but I think that is pessimistic. A diamond might be right to kill the dummy also, if RHO is say 7114.

I really dont know, every suit is pretty viable here, but I'm ruling out a trump. The heart ace might retain our options pretty well (to cash our hearts, or to shift to a minor or a trump), but losing that tempo seems like it'll be fatal. It really feels like a club is the best possibility, but that might be a disaster if declarer is 1561.

I thought about this hand at the bar tonight for like an hour and I dunno, I'd probably club but a diamond seems quite sexy and maybe the HA is right after all...

[Jlall]

Man this hand is so hard i just have no idea

[xcurt]

I'll bite. HA.

You have too many small diamonds and spades are breaking onside.

[aguahombre]

Jlall, on Mar 27 2010, 11:40 PM, said:

This is the best lead problem ive seen on here.

If dummy is 1561 a trump might be best to stop ruffs, but the HA might be good to cash out. A diamond might be good to kill dummy.

With that shape he MIGHT bid 4S though, so if we place him with 0562 then a club might be good to get our clubs going while we have the HA, or the HA might be good to cash our winners before they get pitched, but I think that is pessimistic. A diamond might be right to kill the dummy also, if RHO is say 7114.

I really dont know, every suit is pretty viable here, but I'm ruling out a trump. The heart ace might retain our options pretty well (to cash our hearts, or to shift to a minor or a trump), but losing that tempo seems like it'll be fatal. It really feels like a club is the best possibility, but that might be a disaster if declarer is 1561.

I thought about this hand at the bar tonight for like an hour and I dunno, I'd probably club but a diamond seems quite sexy and maybe the HA is right after all...

That is why I said thinking is over rated. Great analysis, but painful. All the right issues examined, and you still have to lead --but have wasted that much of your life

[Pict]

I suppose declarer could be 7-2-0-4 opposite an ace-less dummy. Maybe a club lead helps him. Maybe Ace of hearts helps him.

Club is the only non-problem lead I'd play.

[655321]

I would just lead the ♥A.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

Systemic club, i.e. a low one.

# heart and diamond is out
# if we go passive, possible clubs tricks will vanish
on the hearts or diamonds, try to establish them
as fast as possible, hence a trump is out as well

With kind regards
Marlowe

[ashdown4]

Scoring: MP

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This was the full hand (from the first qualifying session of Open Pairs in Reno). My club lead caused a disaster. Declarer captured partner's jack with the ace, ruffed a club, and pitched a heart and two other clubs on the run of diamonds. Making 5, -450. 5 matchpoints on 38 top.

One hand proves nothing, so I am still not sure what the best lead is....

[rogerclee]

ashdown4, on Mar 31 2010, 07:49 PM, said:

Dealer: South Vul: None Scoring: MP

♠ J9 ♥ A32 ♦ 8543 ♣ Q543 ♠ KQ87642 ♥ Q ♦   ♣ AKT97 ♠ 5 ♥ K8765 ♦ AKQJT6 ♣ 2 ♠ AT3 ♥ JT94 ♦ 972 ♣ J86

This was the full hand (from the first qualifying session of Open Pairs in Reno). My club lead caused a disaster. Declarer captured partner's jack with the ace, ruffed a club, and pitched a heart and two other clubs on the run of diamonds. Making 5, -450. 5 matchpoints on 38 top.

One hand proves nothing, so I am still not sure what the best lead is....

I led the HA and shifted to a diamond on the auction 1S-2D; 3C-3N, 4S-P. Thoughts on the trick two play?

[ashdown4]

In Roger's scenario (nice ha lead) a trump shift at trick 2 looks anti percentage. It is quite possible that the rest of the hand for declarer is just a spade guess. E.g. he may have KQTxxxx Q x AKxx and is about to finesse ST in hopes of an overtrick. Spade continuation would be pretty suboptimal then.

On the auction given my best guess would be that declarer is 7=1=1=4 with less than solid spades and at least one high honors in clubs. On most such layouts club and diamond shift seem to work about the same.

[Jlall]

Meh I dunno Alex, I think it's pretty normal to rebid spades with 7-4. It will be tough for partner to let you out in spades sometimes if you start with 3C, and the plan of 3C followed by a jump in spades (hopefully partner doesn't bid 4C) would indicate really good spades but you've used a lot of room.

With 6-5 opener may well have rebid 4C at his third turn expecting a preference to 4S on a doubleton, so maybe that suggests 7-5... on the other hand with 6 good spades playable opposite a stiff 4S would be normal.

Against that it's still not clear what is right if declarer is 6115, a diamond or club or trump could all work best, whereas when he's 7-5 a trump is always right, so that argues pretty strongly for a trump.

Pretty hard hand overall but I think a trump shift after the HA lead on roger's auction is a pretty plausible play.

[ashdown4]

Fair enough. I was only two tough decisions away from getting an average plus

[barryallen]

ashdown4, on Apr 1 2010, 09:42 PM, said:

In Roger's scenario (nice ha lead) a trump shift at trick 2 looks anti percentage. It is quite possible that the rest of the hand for declarer is just a spade guess. E.g. he may have KQTxxxx Q x AKxx and is about to finesse ST in hopes of an overtrick.  Spade continuation would be pretty suboptimal then.

On the auction given my best guess would be that declarer is 7=1=1=4 with less than solid spades and at least one high honors in clubs. On most such layouts club and diamond shift seem to work about the same.

After the ♥A, I can't see any other card but a ♠. The reason being holding the ♣Qxxx and ♠J9. If declarer has any entry to dummy, his ♣ losers are going to vanish along with the contract by the looks of things. The one possible entry we can deny him is by playing a ♠ with the possibility it may cost a trick. If declarer has access to dummy it is doubtful the ♣Q will pick up a trick and the ♠J9 looks only to be helping declarer by falling under higher honours.

Where the ♠ return will cost, is if you reduce your ♠ tricks from 2 to 1 and declarer does not have the ♣A but does have access to dummy. In that case the only lead to get the contract down is a ♣? If it comes down to a choice between a ♠ and a ♣ from that holding, I would strongly favour the ♠.

I await the grand canyon being pointed out amongst this, but at present can see nothing else.