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Lead on 3NT! After Stayman auction.

Poll: You lead is... (30 member(s) have cast votes)

You lead is...

  1. c9 (7 votes [23.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 23.33%

  2. small c (4 votes [13.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 13.33%

  3. dJ (9 votes [30.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 30.00%

  4. hJ (9 votes [30.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 30.00%

  5. sQ (1 votes [3.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 3.33%

  6. sT (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

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#1 User is offline   Poky 

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  Posted 2004-July-22, 04:42

IMP. All vul.

♠QT
♥J
♦JT93
♣J98742

................1NT - pass
2♣ - pass - 2♠ - pass
3NT - all pass
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#2 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2004-July-22, 04:50

If J9T3 means JT93, then I lead ♦J...
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#3 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2004-July-22, 07:08

partner is strong and is at elast 45 in the majors, I think I´ll lead ♥J.
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#4 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2004-July-22, 16:51

Not that keen on the H lead, Fluffy as this may well blow a trick eg
KTxx opp A9x
D knave for me.
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#5 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2004-July-22, 17:29

♦J ... i want to help partner if i can, and i want to do no harm if i can't... it's by far the safest lead, whether or not it helps partner will be found out
"Paul Krugman is a stupid person's idea of what a smart person sounds like." Newt Gingrich (paraphrased)
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#6 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2004-July-23, 02:15

I expect bad breaks all around. Not gonna help declarer, so I lead diam jack.
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#7 User is offline   joker_gib 

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Posted 2004-July-23, 02:30

Partner is strong and has at least 5♥. It's imps and I have to take certain risk to beat it.

As Fluffy, let's go for the ♥J ;)
Alain
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#8 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2004-July-24, 06:48

The_Hog, on Jul 22 2004, 10:51 PM, said:

Not that keen on the H lead, Fluffy as this may well blow a trick eg
KTxx opp A9x
D knave for me.

Passive lead is the correct thing to do when they are in a limit contract, but here dummy is 'unlimited', meaning he can have 9-15 HCP, a passive lead isn´t likelly to work IMO unless dummy has his lowest strenght range.

Partner can hardly have 4♦, if you wanaa make a passive/agressive lead make it ♣, on a good day partner will have 3 and they will split 2-2.

I also remember leading a 'passive' ♦J on a similar situation against 6NT, finding dummy with ♦AK8xxx..., I claimed they didn´t alert me 3♣ transfer bid, but director would not care, she said it was everyone´s lead anyway.
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#9 User is offline   Flame 

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Posted 2004-July-24, 09:14

I think a heart lead is bad, and way too optimistic,
between diamond and club i think ill go with the club, if i had J1098 six time club and only J1098 four time diamond i think most will agree on the club lead, but how bad is not having the 10 of club ? i dont think the 10 matter that much when i have a 6 card suit.
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#10 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2004-July-24, 10:09

whereagles, on Jul 23 2004, 08:15 PM, said:

I expect bad breaks all around. Not gonna help declarer, so I lead diam jack.

♦ J may blow a trick if partner has a stiff honour.

Put me down for a club lead. I think I read about 4th highest from your longest and strongest in a book somewhere once.

It might cost but even if partner has a small singleton it might not - clubs could be 3-3. And on a good day partner will have three clubs - I did a quick simulation and the last hand that turned up partner even had four clubs in a 4504 hand.
Wayne Burrows

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True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
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#11 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2004-July-24, 10:47

Lead J from JT9x: maybe it blows a trick yeah, but I don't think pard having a singleton honor in this auction is more likely than the jack cornering an honor in dummy.

Lead a club: true, pard might have 3 cards. Still, I'm putting my money on that they aren't going to scramble 9 tricks, so I might as well stay passive. And diam seems safer than a club.

But that's just my opinion :D
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#12 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2004-July-24, 10:50

Pard is marked with some strength, yet couldn't overcall 2♥. ♣ may be leading into a frozen suit; further our entries are almost non-existent. J♦ is a great passive / agressive lead. I'm sure we all recognize that anything can work here.
"Phil" on BBO
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#13 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2004-July-25, 04:44

I would say that nothing is gonna work more than anything may work :blink:
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#14 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2004-July-25, 05:15

Poky, could you post the entire hand plz? I'm interested in the history of this hand :blink:
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#15 User is offline   Cave_Draco 

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Posted 2004-July-25, 08:49

♥J

I "know" partner has a 5-card ♥ suit! On this hand I will get one chance to lead; I need to find partner's suit.
IMPs scoring, I'm not bothered about the overtrick. However, it is difficult to construct a hand that partner can have where we can defeat the contract without taking ♥ tricks.

A priori: :lol:
Declarer - 4-3-3-3 - s/he declined 4♠
Dummy - 4-4-3-2 or 4-4-2-3
Partner - 3-5-3-2 or 3-5-4-1

A ♣ lead is futile; ♠s are behaving well - for declarer; a ♦ may well kill partner's entry!
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#16 User is offline   paulhar 

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Posted 2004-July-25, 13:18

Yes, partner has a good hand (if we are to beat this.) And partner needs information about our hand to help him defend. If I don't lead a club from this six-card suit, partner might place declarer with a lot of club tricks that he doesn't have, never playing me for all these clubs. If you think that declarer is getting bad splits and we should beat the hand anyway, let partner in on this fact so he doesn't defend agressively, because he thinks that declarer has a lot of club tricks. If dummy comes down with enough extra, a lucky club find might be the only way to beat 3NT.

Of course, my signature will tell you the usual success with my opening leads... :lol:
I tend to lead fourth best - as opposed to the best suit, the second best suit, or the third best suit for our side
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#17 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2004-July-25, 18:35

Cave_Draco, on Jul 26 2004, 02:49 AM, said:

A priori: :D
Declarer - 4-3-3-3 - s/he declined 4♠
Dummy - 4-4-3-2 or 4-4-2-3
Partner - 3-5-3-2 or 3-5-4-1

Dummy is not likely to have four spades since she did not raise opener's 2♠.
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Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon

#18 User is offline   Poky 

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Posted 2004-July-26, 10:59

Free, on Jul 25 2004, 12:15 PM, said:

Poky, could you post the entire hand plz? I'm interested in the history of this hand :)



I lead ♥J. Declarer misguessed ♣, played badly and went for -4.
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#19 User is offline   Trpltrbl 

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Posted 2004-July-26, 13:14

♣ lead.
4th From my longest and strongest. It will not go down on ♦ lead I think.

Mike :D
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