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Lead against 7S

Poll: The right lead is... (16 member(s) have cast votes)

The right lead is...

  1. Spade (2 votes [12.50%])

    Percentage of vote: 12.50%

  2. hA (8 votes [50.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 50.00%

  3. dA (5 votes [31.25%])

    Percentage of vote: 31.25%

  4. Club (1 votes [6.25%])

    Percentage of vote: 6.25%

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#1 User is offline   Poky 

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  Posted 2010-March-12, 06:21

1♣ 2NT 5♦ any
Pa pa 7♠ Pa
Pa pa

2NT = ♥♦
5♦ = ♦ERKCB
Pass = DOPI/ROPI

♠xxx
♥ATxx
♦AJxx
♣Qx
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#2 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2010-March-12, 07:40

only 3 players in the bidding?
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#3 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2010-March-12, 07:45

looks to me like unless you bid 7S or 7NT, LHO will bid 7S :) so yes, just 3 people
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#4 User is offline   Poky 

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Posted 2010-March-12, 08:19

Fluffy, on Mar 12 2010, 02:40 PM, said:

only 3 players in the bidding?

No. 4 players. "Any" was a bid (Double, 5♥, 6♦, whatever...).
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#5 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2010-March-12, 08:22

RHO has enough with 1 keycard to bid 7♠. You'd expect opener to have at least 1 keycard, so why voidwood? Yes, to avoid that lead. Try ♦A.
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#6 User is offline   effervesce 

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Posted 2010-March-12, 08:23

Agree with Free - RHO is trying to avoid a diamond lead. Mind you, this is a whole game of bluff and double-bluff...
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#7 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2010-March-12, 08:44

edit: argh, deleted nonsense
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#8 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2010-March-12, 09:07

I am leading a spade. I don't believe that there is any reason to believe that any red trick is going away if it is not cashed at trick one. Yes, they have a massive club fit and a massive spade fit. But that does not add up to 13 tricks. Leading the wrong red ace, however, is likely to give up the 13th trick (possibly the 12th and 13th tricks).

Many years ago in the LM pairs the opponents bid up to 7♠ in an uncontested auction, and I held the Qx of spades. My partner led one from 3 small. I gave my partner's hand to a friend who was not playing in the LMs and asked him for a lead on the opponents' auction. He led a spade.

On this hand the issue is not pickling partner's possible trump trick. It is whether you try to guess which red ace to cash at trick one or go passive and assume that whichever one is cashing is not going away. I choose to go passive.
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#9 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2010-March-14, 05:18

I have no idea what I'd lead but I would like to know the answer now.. <_< ?
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
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#10 User is offline   rogerclee 

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Posted 2010-March-14, 05:22

I lead a diamond. RHO probably isn't void in two suits, so if the diamond void is real he wouldn't bid the grand. The fact that he did anyway means he has a heart void and not a diamond void.
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#11 User is offline   wank 

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Posted 2010-March-14, 09:10

rogerclee, on Mar 14 2010, 06:22 AM, said:

I lead a diamond. RHO probably isn't void in two suits, so if the diamond void is real he wouldn't bid the grand. The fact that he did anyway means he has a heart void and not a diamond void.

QFE. these secret heart leaders are absurdly naive.
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