1eyedjack, on Feb 25 2010, 08:46 AM, said:
hanp, on Feb 25 2010, 02:01 PM, said:
So clearly it is right to bid with 0 HCP and pass with 1 HCP.
The way I read it is simply that masterminding is not so heinous a crime, despite that it appears to create no measurable gain. The qualifier preceding the statement
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Sadly, Masterminds have not gone anywhere.....and I suspect they never will....
does not seem to be justified by this example, although of course it might by other examples.
There were thousands of hands that passed a 2@C opener where opener had 20+ hcp. Some with flat distribution, some with very few clubs. Han asked a very specific question, limiting responder to EXACTLY six clubs (he asked for 0 hcp, but I included 1 hcp as well).
One could easily guess that anytime opener had something like 20 to 25 hcp and balanced hand, passing would be a "winner". Of course, catch opener with a monster and that is no longer the case.
As for the observation that passing with 0 was wrong and with 1 hcp is right, there was no statistics given with the current numbers. With only 4 example hands at MP, nothing can be made of those numbers, and in fact, it really is OPENER's hand that determines if pass works or not. When openers hand was balanced, regardless of the hcp. there was little difference between the results of passing with 0 or 1 hcp. For the comparison, only final contracts of 2
♣ are included (and opener was 4333, 4432, 5332, 5422, or 6322 distribution, any pc.
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With 0 hcp
34 hand Tricks Score IMP HCP Trumps HP+Dist
Avge 9.79 111 0.22 23.61 8.88 27.5
Std Err 0.34 16 0.75 0.33 0.14 0.32
With 1 HCP
69 hands Tricks Score IMP HCP Trumps HP+Dist
Avge 9.81 117 0.85 23.59 8.68 27.43
Std Err 0.14 6 0.38 0.18 0.09 0.19
As you can see, there is no difference in tricks won, hcp + distribution, hcp, number of trumps, average score (just slightly more than +110), and the statisticians can tell us if there is a statistical difference in IMPS with 0 hcp having such a high standard error.
Another factor is responder's distribution. We fixed his club legnth at 6, turns out pass worked less well with 6322 than with other distributions, the more wild responder's distribution, the better pass appeared to work out. I would not have thought that, but i forced the final contract to be 2@C so it might has to do with opponents not bidding their fit when reponder was 65 or 64 (this observation constrained opposite a balanced opener).
There simply is not enough 6 card suit opposite the 2@C opener to start drawing too many more conclusions on 1 hcp versus 0 hcp.
Help
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ing) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees.
Posted 2010-February-27, 18:19
