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IRL LHO played the ace on the way up anyway, I was just wondering what I should do if he played low since I hadn't decided yet. So most people here were right but perhaps only by coincidence since LHO had xxx AJx Jxx AKQx (AKQ of clubs!)
Perhaps much ado about nothing?
#21
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Posted 2010-February-19, 19:39
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#22
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Posted 2010-February-19, 19:39
jdonn, on Feb 19 2010, 08:39 PM, said:
IRL LHO played the ace on the way up anyway, I was just wondering what I should do if he played low since I hadn't decided yet. So most people here were right but perhaps only by coincidence since LHO had xxx AJx Jxx AKQx (AKQ of clubs!)
haha, did RHO have exactly T842?
#23
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Posted 2010-February-19, 19:41
Yes I think so, definitely the 10 and I think the 8.
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#24
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Posted 2010-February-19, 21:14
Humorously, then, 3♠ makes 11 tricks by attacking diamonds after all.
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Posted 2010-February-21, 02:20
Well, ♥K I guess. Why didn't I ruff some diamonds before??
#26
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Posted 2010-February-21, 13:02
Good point everyone I should have started ruffing diamonds, after all I would have made 11 tricks then. Why didn't I think of that?
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#27
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Posted 2010-February-21, 14:08
gnasher, on Feb 19 2010, 04:10 PM, said:
And if spades are 4-1 and LHO is any shape other than 4=2=3=4, you will have gone down even though you got the hearts right.
Making 3♠x is worth 11 IMPs against 140 in the other room. Making two overtricks is worth 14. Going down is worth -6. Hence you're risking 17 to gain 3.
LHO is limited to 15 HCPs but he doubled 3♠ facing a one-level response. Regardless of what the double means, do you really think it's less than a 15% chance that spades are 4-1?
Making 3♠x is worth 11 IMPs against 140 in the other room. Making two overtricks is worth 14. Going down is worth -6. Hence you're risking 17 to gain 3.
LHO is limited to 15 HCPs but he doubled 3♠ facing a one-level response. Regardless of what the double means, do you really think it's less than a 15% chance that spades are 4-1?
On reflection, the question in my final paragraph understates the disadvantages of ruffing two diamonds in hand. With spades 3-2, most of the time this line will just break even.
Even without any bidding, the chance of finding trumps 3-2 and diamonds 3-3 is 36% x 68% ~= 24%. So, 24% of the time you gain 3; 28% of the time you lose 17. Not much of a bargain, that.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn