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maybe next time wrong choice

#1 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2010-February-15, 06:29

At the table I made the wrong choice. As I thought it over, I think next tiem I would choose differently, perhaps again wrongly. So I ask your views:

Scoring: IMP

1 1 Pass 1
2 Pass 3 Pass
?


Of course if you don't care for my 2 bid feel free to say so but I have not been rethinking that one, I'm happy enough with it.
Ken
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#2 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2010-February-15, 07:01

I don't care for your 2H bid, I would double.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#3 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2010-February-15, 10:48

I also double 1.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#4 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2010-February-15, 11:26

OK, maybe I need to rethink the 2 bid. Here was my thinking: I would like to get to 3NT if it is right. With my AK of hearts and the heart bid on my left, NT will never occur to partner unless I announce my heart stop. Although undiscussed, I assumed that with opps bidding two suits I bid the stop I have, not the one I haven't.

A penalty pass of X, with a partner who could neither bid 1 nor double over 1 seemed unlikely to me. You are looking for penalties here?
Ken
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#5 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2010-February-15, 11:41

Ken: Maybe, you should not rethink 2H. Reversing your majors and keeping your thoughts, would you double 1S or bid 2S?

In other words, your logic seems reasonable. And if partner can picture a mountain with about this shape, It is workable.
"Bidding Spades to show spades can work well." (Kenberg)
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#6 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2010-February-15, 11:51

Double shows a good hand. Even though your hand is really good I don't think you have enough offense for 2, it sounds like a lot more playing strength. Nothing will prevent you from bidding 2 on the next round, or 3 if the auction is higher but partner acts in competition. Besides 3 was the most likely thing for partner to bid so you knowingly gave yourself a bidding problem.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#7 User is offline   Bbradley62 

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Posted 2010-February-15, 12:01

When you're choosing your 2 call, what might partner have to make 3N right and biddable?
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#8 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2010-February-15, 14:44

I'm not looking for a penalty, I'm just describing my hand.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#9 User is offline   cherdanno 

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Posted 2010-February-15, 15:29

kenberg, on Feb 15 2010, 12:26 PM, said:

OK, maybe I need to rethink the 2 bid. Here was my thinking: I would like to get to 3NT if it is right. With my AK of hearts and the heart bid on my left, NT will never occur to partner unless I announce my heart stop. Although undiscussed, I assumed that with opps bidding two suits I bid the stop I have, not the one I haven't.

A penalty pass of X, with a partner who could neither bid 1 nor double over 1 seemed unlikely to me. You are looking for penalties here?

For 2 I would assume a strong one-suited hand, probably with running diamonds and a stop in hearts. For double, I would assume a strong hand with takeout shape. Clearly double describes your shape better, and also allows for an easier stop if partner has truly nothing (I assume 2 is GF).
On your auction, after 3 I find it obvious to raise, as we have much better clubs than promised, and play for 5 opposite xxx xxx xx Jxxxx.
"Are you saying that LTC merits a more respectful dismissal?"
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#10 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2010-February-15, 15:39

Cher: Can 2H really be a game force after opening 1m and getting no response yet from partner?
"Bidding Spades to show spades can work well." (Kenberg)
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#11 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2010-February-15, 15:47

Having a double stop in hearts and a stiff spot in spades I thought that 2H was more descriptive than double. But I am treating the idea that I lack the values with seriousness. It's a pretty good hand, but a spade stop alone will not bring in 3NT. So maybe it is an overbid. Still, partner could have a little over there and just not have a convenient bid over 1H.


I don't think of 2 as a game force but rahter as a very srong bid showing a heart stop, presunmably not a spade stop, and good values. The opps asked for an explanation and this is pretty much what I told the, Actually I think I said heart stop and values. But I would like to hear more opinions about this also.

A little resulting now:


3NT was bid and made at the other table, played from my side with bidding that started with 2. And you folks think 2 is an overbid! The opening lead (a small heart from QJ9xx) made it easy for declarer but I was thinking it could be made, with luck, even with the opening lead of the Q if hearts. Upon reflection I still believe this to be true but it requires so much luck in spot cards and shape that I no longer claim I wish I had guided us to it. And 5 is down on decent defense also: Ace of clubs and another, and when I lead the spade W hops up and plays another club. I can make this tougher by winning the second club in hand (N in clubs) and leading the Queen. If E plays his ace, I believe the contract comes in.

The cards lie vary favorably for our side and 1 doubled goes for 300, maybe 500.

So double seems to be right.

Here are the hands:





Playing 3NT the first break is that the club ace has only one spot card with it. Still, that means 8 tricks not 9. With a little bit of luck you might bring in 9. With double dummy play I think you can always bring in 9. The most obvious approach (seeing all the hands) is to try for an endplay.On some defenses this should be fairly easy to bring off but on others it gets tricky. There are many lines and I think I have looked over most of the main ones. I absolutely do not claim some of these lines would be taken at the table. Here is a sampler (it's snowing again here so I have nothing else to do. I can see why others might use their time more productively.)



The toughest defense appears (to me) to be Q of hearts ducked (or if played by N then heart to the Q), J of hearts taken, K of clubs ducked, Q taken, diamond through. However declarer can then run the clubs. This seems to bring in the contract no matter what the opponents do. It's complicated, but I believe I am right. After 8 tricks, S comes down to KJT of diamonds and A8 of hearts. W has to totally abandon spades or else he establishes one of the red suits. There is no entry to the red suits but if, say, W holds the bare king then declarer can play a small spade. Either W is in and has to lead a red, or E goes up and after the crash there are enough spade tricks. If W sheds both spades then E cannot succeed by saving all spades as he is just barely outspotted. But if he saves a diamond for an exit, takes the first spade, planning to exit with a diamond, S throws the ten of diamonds and hops up with the king on the diamond play. if the Q drops, fine, he cashes the J. If not, he plays the J and W is endplayed in hearts. There are other variations. I suppose this squeeze/throw-in ending has a name but I don't know it.


As you can see, this all seems to depend firstly on the ace of clubs being singly guarded. Then for the hearts, the 8 plays a key role after the Q duck and J continuation. North's spade spots have to be strong, and W must hold something akin to the AT. And then declarer must choose this line.

If E doesn't find the entry killing diamond play when in with the club, I think it gets easier.

Doubling is looking seriously like a better call.

Oh. over 3 I bid 3, making.
Ken
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#12 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2010-February-15, 16:35

Didn't think 2H was an overbid, I thought it was a misbid.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#13 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2010-February-15, 17:03

I think that partner should bid 1, and I'd prefer to be in 5 than 3NT.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#14 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2010-February-15, 18:29

gnasher, on Feb 15 2010, 06:03 PM, said:

I think that partner should bid 1, and I'd prefer to be in 5 than 3NT.

If the contract is 5C played N and the opening lead is a heart, which on the auction is probable, the contract can be made and probably will be, or so I think. Edit. On reflection, I am not so sure of that. Dn1, it appears. Oh well.
Ken
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#15 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2010-February-15, 19:31

hanp, on Feb 15 2010, 05:35 PM, said:

Didn't think 2H was an overbid, I thought it was a misbid.

Right I thought I said that too.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#16 User is offline   Dirk Kuijt 

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Posted 2010-February-15, 20:53

FWIW

I investigated this hand with Deep Finesse. South can always make 3NT; however, on the lead of a top heart, South must win and force out the A of clubs. If South ducks the opening lead, then the defense can prevail (double dummy) with the spectacular lead of the King of Spades next! When that holds, West must shift back to the other top Heart!

Obvious

codo said:

It is a fact that most people here write as if their opinion is a dogmatic fact.

eugene hung said:

My opinion is that this ought to win the award for best self-referential quote of the new year.
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#17 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2010-February-15, 22:29

Dirk Kuijt, on Feb 15 2010, 09:53 PM, said:

FWIW

I investigated this hand with Deep Finesse. South can always make 3NT; however, on the lead of a top heart, South must win and force out the A of clubs. If South ducks the opening lead, then the defense can prevail (double dummy) with the spectacular lead of the King of Spades next! When that holds, West must shift back to the other top Heart!

Obvious

Well, guess I wouldn't have made 3N. I haven't worked it through but I suppose DF is right, it pretty much always is. After the duck, theking of spades, a switch back to hearts that has to be taken, the clubs with a diamond through to mess up entries. Huh!

I had thought that an immediate take of the heart would cause problems as well. I think I can see my error but I haven't checked ot out completely.


Thanks, I really appreciate this.

I guess I will double next time. Maybe.
Ken
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#18 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2010-February-16, 03:54

I was N and didn't find any of my three calls particularly easy. First pass, I thought with no prime cards and a stiff in p's suit my hand could be absolutely worthless. But having made that decision I should probably try to show some life later.

I though 2 showed long diamonds and considered bidding 3 over 2. I think the reason I bid 3 was that I wasn't 100% confident that Ken had long diamonds. Also I thought that if I made a positive bid (like 2NT, this is not a Lebensohl situation) at this turn I would be showing a trap pass on hearts. Maybe I am wrong about this.

3rd turn I was afraid that diamonds wouldn't run opposite my singleton, but that is probably too pessimistic. I think I should have bid 3NT at this point.
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#19 User is offline   mich-b 

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Posted 2010-February-16, 05:12

About the sequence :

1X - (1Y)- P - (1Z or 2Z)
Dbl

I think it makes sense to play it as takeout of Y , showing some length in Z, obviously with extra values.
This leaves us better placed to extract a penalty, when pd has a "weakish" trap pass of Y. If Double here is takeout of either/both Y/Z , pd will never be in a position to pass for penalties.
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#20 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2010-February-16, 06:07

kenberg, on Feb 16 2010, 01:29 AM, said:

gnasher, on Feb 15 2010, 06:03 PM, said:

I think that partner should bid 1, and I'd prefer to be in 5 than 3NT.

If the contract is 5C played N and the opening lead is a heart, which on the auction is probable, the contract can be made and probably will be, or so I think. Edit. On reflection, I am not so sure of that. Dn1, it appears. Oh well.

I meant that looking at the two hands 5 is a better contract.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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