hanp, on Feb 5 2010, 04:00 AM, said:
inquiry, on Feb 4 2010, 05:39 PM, said:
This was an odd hand I witnessed. OF course, most people tried the club Queen at trick one, which was headed by the KING. When that failed, they eventually took the spade finessee that failed. I see nothing wrong with that line. However, from the table at which I took the bidding/play from declarer took the position at trick one that WEST would not lead from the club king, so played low. Then at this point, he violated (at least in some ways) his initial position and took the spade hook -- which lost.
I have no real feel for which line is best, and as such this was not a great problem hand, but it seems to me if you play low at trick one, you are going to have to at least consider the club throw-in. I was just wonder who would back the trick one judgement at trick 11. OF course at this point it is still pretty much a guess.
I don't understand your argument. You duck at trick 1 because you judge that it is extremely unlikely that the club king is onside and you want to keep your options open. At trick 11, when you surely have a much better picture of the hand, you decide which line to take. Seems right to me.
You maybe right. It looks like WEST began life with 4
♠ to east's three. If that presumptive count is correct, West will have the Qieen on 20 holding to East's 15 holding (57% or so for play west for queen). Perhaps this is what you meant, and perhaps that is reasonable logic to favor the hook after not playing the queen at trick one.
Howver, for this to be correct math, West has come down to one heart, the club JACK and two spades. If that is the case, cash spade King and throw East in with a club can never lose... no matter who has the
♠Q. However, West may have only had 3
♣ all along, in which case East is holding
♣KJ and two spades. In this case, the only chance is to hook spade (71% success rate). The full hand was....
2N-4N
6N - ALL PASS
Opening lead ♣5
Six ♦ would be easy. I would like to say that this was a matchpoint decision to play in NT, but North thought 4NT was blackwood, south thought it was quantitative.