[inquiry]

Scoring: IMP

1♦-1♠
3♥-3NT*
4♣-4♦
4nt-5♦
5♥-6♠
Pass

* slam try

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Opening lead ♥K

T1. ♥K-8-9-2
T2. ♥2-♠4-4-5

Your play.

[Hanoi5]

I'll try to ruff out the diamond King. I win if it is at most 4th in ANY hand. I hope this is a little more than 50%.

[Mbodell]

The diamond ruffing finesse is just 50%+chance of stiff K. Ruffing diamonds should be better than that. Once the K is ruffed good I'll be good I think.

I think my plan is ruff a diamond, ♠A (assuming they both follow or the LHO is out this will make my last diamond ruff easier and if the T drops it eliminates earlier overruffs), ruff a heart, ruff a diamond, ruff a heart (high with the K), ruff a diamond (high if both followed), pull trump (noticing if the KQ of ♣ drop in which case we'll pitch the ♦Q instead of the 2nd ♣ picking up ♦K 5th and KQ♣ with LHO), ♣A, run ♦. I think this is going to be like ~60%.

[gnasher]

If ruffing the diamonds good was going to work and the ruffing finesse wasn't, wouldn't my advanced/expert LHO have switched to a club? With something like xx KQxx Kxxx Kxx, a club switch would beat it by force. (If we could expect this situation to come up lots of times, it might be right for him to follow a mixed strategy, occasionally misdefending with ♦Kxxx so that I'll go wrong when he has ♦xxx. However, we're not going to live for long enough to justify that strategy.)

Also, ♥KQ + ♦K + a club honour + spade shortage is starting to look like a takeout double of 1♠.

I'd go for the ruffing finesse.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2010-February-01, 04:59

[inquiry]

At the time of posting this "solution" this poll had 19 votes averaging 2.4%. I thought this was a straight percentage play hand (gnasher might have changed my opinion). As such, i would think intemediate, which the average vote suggest it is a high intermediate.

First, one has to consider the straight up diamond ruffing finesse verus play for the "drop" of the king (from either side). The ruffing finesse we can agree is 50%. Playing to drop the king only "loses" if EAST has five or more to the king (nothing works if West has five or more to the king). My ruff (pun intended) estimates are ruffing three diamonds has 65% chance of success.

Scoring: IMP

Mbodell did well predicting, calling for singleton Spade Ten, it was there...

gnasher was correct, a club shift would have defeated the contract by force so against world class opposition, his concern is certainly something well worth considering. Perhaps this should be used as a defensive hand and see what West leads at trick two

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