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two mp balancing decisons

#21 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2010-February-03, 18:37

fred, on Feb 3 2010, 06:56 PM, said:

gnasher, on Jan 31 2010, 05:52 PM, said:

karlson, on Jan 31 2010, 06:40 PM, said:

1. partner had QJxxx QJT Jx QTx. Bidding was a disaster of -500. I don't know why righty bid only 2h on ATx xxx Kxx Kxx.

Why didn't partner bid 2 over 2? That's much harder for them to double.

In case the strong opinions in favor of 2S cause some to think that this style is universal among experts...

I have to admit that it would not occur to me to bid 2S with this hand.

That should not be seen as a claim that I know which style is "best".

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

Phew I was starting to think I was crazy, or terrible at mps, or both.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#22 User is offline   PhantomSac 

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Posted 2010-February-03, 18:46

fred, on Feb 3 2010, 06:56 PM, said:

gnasher, on Jan 31 2010, 05:52 PM, said:

karlson, on Jan 31 2010, 06:40 PM, said:

1. partner had QJxxx QJT Jx QTx. Bidding was a disaster of -500. I don't know why righty bid only 2h on ATx xxx Kxx Kxx.

Why didn't partner bid 2 over 2? That's much harder for them to double.

In case the strong opinions in favor of 2S cause some to think that this style is universal among experts...

I have to admit that it would not occur to me to bid 2S with this hand.

That should not be seen as a claim that I know which style is "best".

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

Really? You know this hand was a PH right (just asking in case you didn't notice, because as an UPH I would totally see where you're coming from).

Do you really think 2H and 2S are both down 1 that often, or do you think even as a passed hand you will get overboard by bidding 2S with this hand? Or do you think you get Xed too often, or do you think that partner will almost always reopen for you anyways when it's right? Just trying to gauge why you wouldn't bid 2S on this hand.

IMO 2H is making really often and if it's not 2S will often make. Despite my very defensive oriented holdings/negative LOTT adjustments, we are still only talking about 15 total tricks being necessary (and maybe even 14 if it's 8 and 6 either way as opposed to 7 and 7). If either of these contracts is making, I really want to bid 2S. I feel protected by PH status that we won't get overboard, and I don't think they double 2S very often at all. Even though a lot of the times it's right to bid 2S here partner will balance, I still feel like the times he passes it out, or reopens with 2N or 3m instead of X so we can't play 2S, we will be doing very poorly in general.

I'm not really worried about getting partner off to a bad lead if we end up defending, or worried about telling them how to play the hand if we end up defending (given my hand), so neither of those is a concern to me.

If they have a game, even if they can get us for 500, I expect them to just bid their game most of the time. Ofc -500 or more into their game is possible, or -300 into their partial, but that just doesn't seem to happen that often. As gnasher says, people are very hungry doubling the 3 level, but I think much less so at the 2 level.

It seems like if you won't bid 2S here as a PH, you aren't bidding it very often, and that feels like a mistake at MP w/w in my experience.
The artist formerly known as jlall
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#23 User is offline   PhantomSac 

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Posted 2010-February-03, 18:51

jdonn, on Feb 3 2010, 07:37 PM, said:

fred, on Feb 3 2010, 06:56 PM, said:

gnasher, on Jan 31 2010, 05:52 PM, said:

karlson, on Jan 31 2010, 06:40 PM, said:

1. partner had QJxxx QJT Jx QTx. Bidding was a disaster of -500. I don't know why righty bid only 2h on ATx xxx Kxx Kxx.

Why didn't partner bid 2 over 2? That's much harder for them to double.

In case the strong opinions in favor of 2S cause some to think that this style is universal among experts...

I have to admit that it would not occur to me to bid 2S with this hand.

That should not be seen as a claim that I know which style is "best".

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

Phew I was starting to think I was crazy, or terrible at mps, or both.

We all know you're terrible at MP jdonn :D Haha jk, obv Fred is a very successful player at MP as well as imps (much much moreso than me) so I'm definitely surprised to see him say he wouldn't consider bidding 2S with that because in my mind it was automatic.
The artist formerly known as jlall
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#24 User is offline   fred 

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Posted 2010-February-03, 19:20

PhantomSac, on Feb 4 2010, 12:46 AM, said:

fred, on Feb 3 2010, 06:56 PM, said:

gnasher, on Jan 31 2010, 05:52 PM, said:

karlson, on Jan 31 2010, 06:40 PM, said:

1. partner had QJxxx QJT Jx QTx. Bidding was a disaster of -500. I don't know why righty bid only 2h on ATx xxx Kxx Kxx.

Why didn't partner bid 2 over 2? That's much harder for them to double.

In case the strong opinions in favor of 2S cause some to think that this style is universal among experts...

I have to admit that it would not occur to me to bid 2S with this hand.

That should not be seen as a claim that I know which style is "best".

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

Really? You know this hand was a PH right (just asking in case you didn't notice, because as an UPH I would totally see where you're coming from).

Do you really think 2H and 2S are both down 1 that often, or do you think even as a passed hand you will get overboard by bidding 2S with this hand? Or do you think you get Xed too often, or do you think that partner will almost always reopen for you anyways when it's right? Just trying to gauge why you wouldn't bid 2S on this hand.

IMO 2H is making really often and if it's not 2S will often make. Despite my very defensive oriented holdings/negative LOTT adjustments, we are still only talking about 15 total tricks being necessary (and maybe even 14 if it's 8 and 6 either way as opposed to 7 and 7). If either of these contracts is making, I really want to bid 2S. I feel protected by PH status that we won't get overboard, and I don't think they double 2S very often at all. Even though a lot of the times it's right to bid 2S here partner will balance, I still feel like the times he passes it out, or reopens with 2N or 3m instead of X so we can't play 2S, we will be doing very poorly in general.

I'm not really worried about getting partner off to a bad lead if we end up defending, or worried about telling them how to play the hand if we end up defending (given my hand), so neither of those is a concern to me.

If they have a game, even if they can get us for 500, I expect them to just bid their game most of the time. Ofc -500 or more into their game is possible, or -300 into their partial, but that just doesn't seem to happen that often. As gnasher says, people are very hungry doubling the 3 level, but I think much less so at the 2 level.

It seems like if you won't bid 2S here as a PH, you aren't bidding it very often, and that feels like a mistake at MP w/w in my experience.

The way I see it...

One problem with bidding 2S is that you have no particular reason to expect that, if you Pass instead, your RHO will Pass too. Granted this will happen a sizable chunk of the time, but sometimes when it does your partner (who can also see that it is matchpoints with none vul) will balance with DBL. My partners will be more inclinced to balance with DBL than your partners since they know that a hand like the one in question is still possible. Granted sometimes 2H will get passed out and that it is usually bad at MPs to defend 2H undoubled, but that doesn't mean you will always get a zero. With this particular hand, if 2H was passed out, I would have some hope that we had judged correctly (because partner, marked with some values and few hearts, will strive to balance especially with some spade length, and because my heart holding is extremely defensive).

Suppose you overcall 2S and there is more bidding. It feels like partner, if he is familiar with your style, is essentially barred from ever raising you. That means that, when you actually have some offense for your 2S bid (yes I did know that you are a passed hand), partner has a fit, and it is right to play in 3S or 4S(doubled or not), you can't ever do so.

Even if you assume that partner will always do the right thing (ie Pass) if you bid 2S with this hand, maybe your RHO is always going to make a game try or bid 4H no matter what you do. In that case it is possible that the knowledge you have spade length will help declarer play the hand. Of course it is also possible in this case that 2S could be an effective lead direct, but 2S could also backfire in this regard.

[Edit: I see now that you already mentioned the points I just made in my previous paragraph and I agree these factors are not that big a deal]

Of course there are plenty of other ways that each style might win or lose. Like I said in my last post, I can't state with any confidence that when you add it all up (if that is even possible) that Pass would be a clear winner. This is partly a style/philosophy issue and I could easily be biased by having played this way forever or by my general dislike for bidding with nothing (unless you are psyching of course).

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com
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#25 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2010-February-03, 19:54

PhantomSac, on Feb 3 2010, 07:51 PM, said:

jdonn, on Feb 3 2010, 07:37 PM, said:

fred, on Feb 3 2010, 06:56 PM, said:

gnasher, on Jan 31 2010, 05:52 PM, said:

karlson, on Jan 31 2010, 06:40 PM, said:

1. partner had QJxxx QJT Jx QTx. Bidding was a disaster of -500. I don't know why righty bid only 2h on ATx xxx Kxx Kxx.

Why didn't partner bid 2 over 2? That's much harder for them to double.

In case the strong opinions in favor of 2S cause some to think that this style is universal among experts...

I have to admit that it would not occur to me to bid 2S with this hand.

That should not be seen as a claim that I know which style is "best".

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

Phew I was starting to think I was crazy, or terrible at mps, or both.

We all know you're terrible at MP jdonn :D Haha jk, obv Fred is a very successful player at MP as well as imps (much much moreso than me) so I'm definitely surprised to see him say he wouldn't consider bidding 2S with that because in my mind it was automatic.

In fairness I'm somewhat in between you two. I wouldn't have bid it, but the thought would have definitely occurred to me.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#26 User is offline   fred 

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Posted 2010-February-03, 20:21

PhantomSac, on Feb 4 2010, 12:51 AM, said:

We all know you're terrible at MP jdonn ;) Haha jk, obv Fred is a very successful player at MP as well as imps (much much moreso than me) so I'm definitely surprised to see him say he wouldn't consider bidding 2S with that because in my mind it was automatic.

Actually my record at MPs, at least as far as wins go, is not good. I do have a good record at BAM and a lot of nearish wins in big MP events.

Unlike many of the players who I consider my peers, I like matchpoints and I have made some effort to take that form of the game seriously.

About my record compared to yours - I have 20 years on you. I expect it will take less time than that for you to leave me in your dust :)

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
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#27 User is offline   fred 

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Posted 2010-February-03, 20:34

My proudest matchpoint result spans two tournaments - 12th (2002) and 7th (2006) in the last two runnings of the World Open Pairs. In both events my partner and I were leading or close to leading at a fairly late point. That was fun.

12th and 7th is not in same league as the incredible 1st and 3rd that Fantoni-Nunes produced in these events, but it is not so bad either ;)

Looking forward to the 2010 edition in Philadelphia...

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com
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#28 User is offline   PhantomSac 

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Posted 2010-February-04, 01:00

Thanks for your post Fred, I see where you're coming from.
The artist formerly known as jlall
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