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Whoops!

#1 User is offline   kayin801 

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Posted 2010-January-30, 18:30

Scoring: IMP

Contract: 6NT
Lead: ♥5


How are you best combining your chances? As declarer you've shown 5 spades, 4-5 diamonds, and 3 aces in the bidding.

I've put the full hand here (above hand was rotated): http://tinyurl.com/ylq8uk7 I thought declarer did a nice job bringing about pressure on the defense even if the contract could have been beaten, but I'm wondering how everyone could have done better. (ignore the bidding :))
I once yelled at my partner for discarding the 'wrong' card when he was subjected to a squeeze that I allowed by giving the wrong count with too high a card. Now he's allowed to pitch aces when the opponents have the king in the dummy. At trick 2. When he could have followed suit. And blame me.

East4Evil ♥ sohcahtoa 4ever!!!!!1
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#2 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2010-January-31, 04:55

Just on instinct I think it is better to win the heart in dummy and lead the diamond jack. If the finesse is onside you are done. Say lefty wins the king and a club is returned. Win in hand, cash the heart jack and the top diamonds and (assuming the 10 doesn't drop) go to dummy with the spqade king and cash all the hearts. Guess the endposition.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#3 User is offline   Jlall 

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Posted 2010-January-31, 12:16

Well assuming hearts are 4-2 or better, going after spades first automatically wins when:

1) The SQ is on
2) The spades are 3-3

So that's ~ 68 %.

You have extra chances if those fail, but note that you cannot play for the double diamond finesse anymore as you won't have entries (say you win the heart, spade spade, they win and play a heart, you win in hand and cash a spade getting the bad news, you now have only 1 entry to dummy). So your main extra chance will be a spade diamond squeeze, or a double squeeze.

Playing the DJ first automatically wins when:

1) The DK is on
2) The DT drops in 3 rounds
3) The SQ is on


So that's ~84 %

You have some extra squeeze chances also obviously.

Anyways, the 2nd line must be much better.
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#4 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2010-January-31, 12:34

hanp said:

win the heart in dummy


I think you should play low on the first heart, planning to cross back to dummy in hearts at trick 2. That way, you'll find out about a 5-1 heart break in time to do something about it. Also, ♥7 may hold, providing an extra entry which may be useful in some lines.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#5 User is offline   Pict 

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Posted 2010-January-31, 14:16

I'd win in South and play a diamond to the Jack.
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#6 User is offline   Jlall 

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Posted 2010-January-31, 14:17

Pict, on Jan 31 2010, 03:16 PM, said:

I'd win in South and play a diamond to the Jack.

Why?
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#7 User is offline   Pict 

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Posted 2010-January-31, 14:23

Just because it is flexible, might win immediately and will certainly allow a large variety of end positions. At the table that would be enough for me.
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#8 User is offline   Pict 

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Posted 2010-January-31, 14:26

By the way (kust noticed the hand ref) I haven't looked at the hand and my line may not work at all.
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#9 User is offline   Pict 

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Posted 2010-February-01, 09:14

Jlall, on Jan 31 2010, 03:17 PM, said:

Pict, on Jan 31 2010, 03:16 PM, said:

I'd win in South and play a diamond to the Jack.

Why?

Looking at it again in the light of day I take the point. A lot of effort reading discards to never quite match the success of running the Jack of diamonds.
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