[hotShot]

eyhung, on Jan 29 2010, 06:48 PM, said:

Once you realize that opener must hold at least 4 diamonds because of the failure to raise hearts, and most hands with 4 diamonds do not rebid 1♠ thanks to notrump being a higher priority, you will understand that 25% is a far better estimate than 60%. This makes more sense to me as well -- I tend NOT to rebid 1♠ even with weak notrumps that qualify, so it's nice to see that my style only "costs" me a low percentage of the time (less than 25%, since I'd also rebid 1♠ with 4144.)

You are comparing 2 numbers that are almost unrelated.

Of cause about 25% off all openings are ♦.

Twcho and I have been looking at deals that have the ♦ and ♠ length shown by the auction that are restricted by responders known shape. Of these deals 60% have only 4♦ the remaining 40% have more than 4♦.

[eyhung]

hotShot, on Jan 29 2010, 11:20 AM, said:

eyhung, on Jan 29 2010, 06:48 PM, said:

Once you realize that opener must hold at least 4 diamonds because of the failure to raise hearts, and most hands with 4 diamonds do not rebid 1♠ thanks to notrump being a higher priority, you will understand that 25% is a far better estimate than 60%.  This makes more sense to me as well -- I tend NOT to rebid 1♠ even with weak notrumps that qualify, so it's nice to see that my style only "costs" me a low percentage of the time (less than 25%, since I'd also rebid 1♠ with 4144.)

You are comparing 2 numbers that are almost unrelated.

Of cause about 25% off all openings are ♦.

Twcho and I have been looking at deals that have the ♦ and ♠ length shown by the auction that are restricted by responders known shape. Of these deals 60% have only 4♦ the remaining 40% have more than 4♦.

I think it has been quite clear that I am NOT saying that 25% of all possible bridge hands contain exactly 4 diamonds. I do not see why anyone would perceive that unless they had an emotional attachment to erroneous results. Instead, I am saying that ~25% of hands that

1) qualify for a 1♦ opening bid under 2/1 and
2) would rebid 1♠ over a 1♥ response

contain exactly 4 diamonds.

If you would open 1♦ with 4342 and 16 HCP, or you would rebid 1♠ with 4342 and 19 HCP, then you will obviously get different results.

[PhantomSac]

cherdanno, on Jan 29 2010, 12:34 AM, said:

PhantomSac, on Jan 28 2010, 10:55 PM, said:

4342 being 3 times as likely as 4351 seems weird.

But it is correct (assuming we ignore the hcp restrictions).

Yeah but as has been said now, those hands would open 1N or rebid 2N a lot so I'm glad to see my inclination to think that was the problem was correct heh.

[aguahombre]

Being less of a wizard at probabilities and percentages, etc., I agree with Roland's last post and stick with the 3NT rebid rather that the 4SF. To paraphrase:

I have denied 5+ hearts, denied 4 spades, denied 4 diamonds, shown a balanced hand, and shown around 14 HCP. Why should I be the one trying to figure out what opener has?

If I have been able to somewhat describe my size and shape early in the auction, that doesn't mean I am necessarily "in a big hurry", it just means I like to be able to described my size and shape when I can.

Opener will know whether he has 4-3-4-2, 5-X-6-y, 4-3-6-0, etc. without my guessing the probability of it, and act accordingly.

[PhantomSac]

Your shape is not nearly as important as your honor location when deciding whether to jump to 3N. For the same reason you would not jump to 3N over a 1D opener with Axx Axx Axx Qxxx even if you played it showing 13-15 balanced, but you would with KJx KJx Qxx KJxx.

If you bid 3N partner is going to assume a stiff somewhere and a little extra shape is not enough reason to bid, and he's going to pass. Since there are some hands like that where you will be in the wrong game, it is worth it to investigate that possibility at a low level.

[mike777]

I am not sure how much better off I would be if for me:


1d=1h
1s=2d(art. gf)
2h(3)=2nt
3d=?

rather than:
1d=1h
1s=3nt(14-15 bal.)


I know pard has 4s, 3h and 5 or 6d and 9/10-17/18 pts.

[jdonn]

mike777, on Jan 29 2010, 01:59 PM, said:

I know pard has 4s, 3h and 5 or 6d and 9/10-17/18 pts.

You know a lot more than that.
- Partner doesn't have 9.
- He probably just has 10 if 4360.
- If he has 17-18 he won't pass 3NT anyway.

As for his 11-16, you still know a lot more.
- He didn't bid 3♥ or 3♠, showing similar shape but a very strong holding in the suit.
- It's actually an interesting question what 3♣ should mean but in any case he didn't bid it.
- He doesn't have a 4351 with slow values and bad diamonds that would just bid 3NT over 2NT, like Axxx Qxx KJxxx A.

Also he knows a lot more about your hand in this case. You will rebid 3♠ over 3♦ (not 3NT!) He can infer that you have spade strength and a single club stopper, and also not lots of heart strength. He is so much better placed to make a decision than he would be over a second round jump to 3NT that it's not even funny.

[mike777]

jdonn, on Jan 29 2010, 02:25 PM, said:

mike777, on Jan 29 2010, 01:59 PM, said:

I know pard has 4s, 3h and 5 or 6d and 9/10-17/18 pts.

You know a lot more than that.
- Partner doesn't have 9.
- He probably just has 10 if 4360.
- If he has 17-18 he won't pass 3NT anyway.

As for his 11-16, you still know a lot more.
- He didn't bid 3♥ or 3♠, showing similar shape but a very strong holding in the suit.
- It's actually an interesting question what 3♣ should mean but in any case he didn't bid it.
- He doesn't have a 4351 with slow values and bad diamonds that would just bid 3NT over 2NT, like Axxx Qxx KJxxx A.

Also he knows a lot more about your hand in this case. You will rebid 3♠ over 3♦ (not 3NT!) He can infer that you have spade strength and a single club stopper, and also not lots of heart strength. He is so much better placed to make a decision than he would be over a second round jump to 3NT that it's not even funny.

thank you for taking time to respond, very helpful and insightful ,ty.