[Codo]

I luv hearts, so I bid 7 ♥- 4 in the first part, 3 in the second.

[mcphee]

To all those who ever consider 3NT, may the gods be with you. 4H and I hope it makes. I am not passing this dble although it might work, and so might 4H.

I show all of my H support at this point, ugh. I think to advance 4C shows a better hand than this one. We have a 4-3 S fit and might have a 6-2 H fit and the nice thing is I might be able to ask a caddy to play the dummy.

[gnasher]

gwnn, on Jan 26 2010, 10:34 AM, said:

4♥ and pass, the second doesn't look close at all to me, but that's because I still blindly follow the law as gnasher exposed me earlier this month

I don't particularly want to bid 4♣; I'm just too scared to pass 3♥. I'm not exactly rich in defensive values.

I even accept the premise of the "Law" that when 3♥ is making 4♣ is likely to go more off, but I'm hoping that when that's the situation they won't double us.

[pooltuna]

Jlall, on Jan 25 2010, 03:49 PM, said:

r/w imps:

Q9x Q98x QTx Axx

P P 3S P
P X P ?

hand 2:

r/w imps

Q986 xx Txx xxxx

1H 2D p p
X p 2S 3D
X p ?

Feel free to comment on 2S vs 2H, but 2S is what you did.

I would pass in both cases.

[Jlall]

gnasher, on Jan 26 2010, 08:18 AM, said:

gwnn, on Jan 26 2010, 10:34 AM, said:

4♥ and pass, the second doesn't look close at all to me, but that's because I still blindly follow the law as gnasher exposed me earlier this month

I don't particularly want to bid 4♣; I'm just too scared to pass 3♥. I'm not exactly rich in defensive values.

I even accept the premise of the "Law" that when 3♥ is making 4♣ is likely to go more off, but I'm hoping that when that's the situation they won't double us.

Even if we don't get doubled, surely we rate to go down 2 in 3H or 4C. If our expectation is -200, then -470 is not such a huge disaster in hopes of getting +100 (we risk 270 points to gain 300). Red/white is a weird game imo.

I disagree with you that partner cannot be 3613 and is more likely 3505. For 3613 he could obviously bid 3H now, but if he had a hand with bad hearts and something like AKx ATxxxx x AKx I think Xing again would be better. Couldn't 3H now sound like 2614, or at least better hearts/more offense/less defense? If you think partner usually bids 2H with 4-2 in the majors, then partner will usually have 5 spades or a stiff heart, and if hes 4144 you can get a big number Xing again, and if hes 4135 4C will be better than 4H in a bad 6-1 (partner might correct to 4C but I think he might try to play a 6-1, especially with stiff honor).

3505 seems really unlikely given our hand just because the opponents do not sound like they have 10 diamonds. They are w/r and passed 2D. If RHO had 7 diamonds he might have bid 3D over the X, and if LHO had 4 diamonds he would probably bid over 2D, especially given how weak we are (meaning we know he has some values).

But yeah I think if you think you beat 3D X a trick even 2/3rds of the time you will gain a lot by passing (sometimes you are going -300 if you bid, sometimes they can X and you go -500/800 anyways), since going plus is very valuable compared to going minus in vul undertricks, and -470 is not as horrible as it sounds.

I think given how strong partner's hand rates to be, we definitely rate to beat 3D enough of the time to go for it.

Side question, if you do pass, what do you lead?

[mikegill]

A few points

1) I don't think there's a need to bid 4♣ with this shape. I think partner expects us to pass with just about any hand with 4 diamonds here, so he should be able to infer our shape from the 3♥ bid and bid 4♣ if that's the right contract.

2) I'm not so sure that I would completely rule out a diamond void in partner's hand. If their diamonds are 4-6, LHO shouldn't be freely raising 2♦ to 3 at IMPs with like a 4 count and 4 trumps. 2-4-20-14 seems like a perfectly reasonable distribution of the high cards to me. Now I agree a void in partner's hand still isn't very likely, but I think it's likely enough to matter in the decision.

3)

Quote

Even if we don't get doubled, surely we rate to go down 2 in 3H or 4C. If our expectation is -200, then -470 is not such a huge disaster in hopes of getting +100 (we risk 270 points to gain 300).

I agree that if we expect -200 then passing and hoping for +100 is fine, but why should we necessarily expect that? If they have 9 diamonds (or occasionally 10) and we have 8 clubs (or hearts if you allow for partner to be 3613) then 17 total tricks means if we're 2 down in 4♣ then they're making 3♦X a lot of the time, so this is actually a win if they don't double. Of bigger concern is that frequently we will end up -100 (or sometimes -200 when one fewer total trick) instead of +100, but even that changes the IMP odds more in favor of bidding. Certainly pulling will be right if partner is void, and I suspect it's very likely to be right if he has a 6th heart, or if the law is underestimating the # of tricks on this particular deal. It seems like not pulling will be a big loss on these deals, but I dunno if this is enough to cancel out all of the -5 and -7s when we go - instead of +. Either way it's a good problem.

4) If I were going to pass I would lead a heart hoping for a ruff if they are 3-3 and partner's aren't solid. I don't think I will be getting in enough times to lead trumps to advantage. There's an outside shot I can get a promotion too if partner has a stiff honor.

[gnasher]

Jlall, on Jan 26 2010, 05:12 PM, said:

Side question, if you do pass, what do you lead?

A heart. There's not much point in a trump lead, because I'm not going to get a chance to lead another one.

[Jlall]

gnasher, on Jan 26 2010, 03:51 PM, said:

Jlall, on Jan 26 2010, 05:12 PM, said:

Side question, if you do pass, what do you lead?

A heart. There's not much point in a trump lead, because I'm not going to get a chance to lead another one

I passed and insta led a heart...a spade was the winning lead (beats it 2) and one of my friends said he would lead a spade (without knowing results) so I was just curious heh.

[Jlall]

On the first one partner has Jx KTxx A98x KTx, RHO was 7222 with AK of spades and 3 jacks, so passing got 300 instead of a minus... that one is definitely a scary pass though because if partner is 544 it could be that 3S makes and 4H makes.

[Apollo81]

I would have bid 4♥ on the first one and passed/led a heart on the second one. I find passing pretty scary on the first one, as I think 0(445) is pretty likely.

[gwnn]

I was torn between a spade and a diamond but now nobody will believe me

[flytoox]

Jlall, on Jan 26 2010, 08:55 PM, said:

On the first one partner has Jx KTxx A98x KTx, RHO was 7222 with AK of spades and 3 jacks, so passing got 300 instead of a minus... that one is definitely a scary pass though because if partner is 544 it could be that 3S makes and 4H makes.

Pd's balancing dbl is definitely too aggressive.