[bftboy]

Scoring: IMP

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4♥ with no opp bidding. Opening lead is ♣ 10. What is the best % line for this one? would be very interested to see briefly how you arrive at your % for various lines. thx,

[billw55]

I'll take it in dummy and play a diamond to the jack, trying to help east play low. If west takes it, he can't profitably return a trump, so I should get to ruff both diamond losers. Losing two diamonds and a heart. No idea on the percentage unfortunately.

[dellache]

Take lead in hand, ♠ to Ace, let the ♠Q run.
Too many variants to compute %age.

[bftboy]

Can't sleep, so... anyway, playing to ruff two ♦ per billw55 is line 1, and works whenever both ♣ and ♦ are 4-3 or 3-4. You can survive 2-5 in ♣ if ♦ are 4-3 and you can also pick up ♥ K. You can probably always survive 5-2 ♦ as long as trumps don't break crazy, since you can ruff both ♦ high.

Line 2 is to win in hand and finesse ♠ K. If wins, pitch ♦ on ♠ A, and finesse ♥ K. If that wins, you can repeat and pick up K 4th, but if it loses on the 2d round (good defense) you are in danger of an overruff after the defense cashes 2 ♦. If the ♠ finesse loses, you need 4-3 ♦ and no worse then K third of ♥ onside.

Line 3, as Dellache says, is to win in hand then take the ruffing finesse in ♠. If not covered, probably best to pitch a ♦ and assuming LHO wins, you again need 4-3 ♦ plus pick up ♥ K. If the ♠ is covered, however, you are in great shape, needing pretty much only 3-2 trumps. Ruff and play low ♥ to Q. If someone wins, ruff 3d ♦ high in dummy, draw trumps, cross to dummy in ♣, and pitch losing ♦ on good ♠. If no one wins ♥ Q, cross to ♥ A, then to dummy in ♣, and pitch 2 or maybe 3 ♦ on good ♠.

All 3 lines look very sensible to me, and would be grateful for any help figuring out which is most likely to succeed. thx

[dellache]

bftboy, on Jan 23 2010, 10:11 AM, said:

Can't sleep, so...  anyway, playing to ruff two ♦ per billw55 is line 1, and works whenever both ♣ and ♦ are 4-3 or 3-4.  You can survive 2-5 in ♣ if ♦ are 4-3 and you can also pick up ♥ K. You can probably always survive 5-2 ♦ as long as trumps don't break crazy, since you can ruff both ♦ high.   

The defense can usually play trump twice, even when West takes the first Diamond trick. This line seems unrealistic.

[billw55]

dellache, on Jan 23 2010, 06:17 AM, said:

bftboy, on Jan 23 2010, 10:11 AM, said:

Can't sleep, so...  anyway, playing to ruff two ♦ per billw55 is line 1, and works whenever both ♣ and ♦ are 4-3 or 3-4.  You can survive 2-5 in ♣ if ♦ are 4-3 and you can also pick up ♥ K. You can probably always survive 5-2 ♦ as long as trumps don't break crazy, since you can ruff both ♦ high.   

The defense can usually play trump twice, even when West takes the first Diamond trick. This line seems unrealistic.

True, west can lead a trump. But doing so might remove the potential trump loser. And if it doesn't, declarer still has chances in spades.

[Apollo81]

I'll win the ♣A and lead a diamond out of hand. This allows me to switch from the ruffing line to the establishing spades line (retaining ♣K as entry) depending on what the defense does.