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theoretical NT lead question

#1 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2010-January-08, 05:47

Hi all,

I would be interested in hear opinions on what would theoretically be the best lead in the following case:

You hold Qxxx in a major and Axxx in a minor. The bidding is:

1. Opps open 1 or 2NT and end up there.
2. Opps bid 1/2NT-3NT
3. Opps bid 1/2NT-2/3♣-x-3NT, where x = no 4 or 5 card major

What would you think is, in theory, a better lead in each sequence and why? Thx.
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#2 User is offline   Jlall 

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Posted 2010-January-08, 05:54

Always Qxxx of the major. Axxx is never a good lead, and should be avoided at all costs.

If I had Qxxx of a minor and Axxx of a major, I wold lead from Qxxx of the minor on 1N p p p.
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#3 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2010-January-08, 07:25

The Qxxx in all cases, because it's more likely that the ace will provide an entry to the queen-suit than vice versa.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#4 User is offline   Jlall 

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Posted 2010-January-08, 07:29

gnasher, on Jan 8 2010, 08:25 AM, said:

The Qxxx in all cases, because it's more likely that the ace will provide an entry to the queen-suit than vice versa.

meh I think if it's 1N 3N Qxxx of a minor just sucks too much to be considered. If I had xxx in the other major I would lead that over Axxx though... otherwise I'd go with Axxx I guess (yuck)
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#5 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2010-January-08, 08:27

Jlall, on Jan 8 2010, 06:54 AM, said:

Always Qxxx of the major. Axxx is never a good lead, and should be avoided at all costs.

If I had Qxxx of a minor and Axxx of a major, I wold lead from Qxxx of the minor on 1N p p p.

BINGO! especially if the xxx in Axxx is actually 234. You are leading away from your most probable entry and before you do that you really need to hold spots that justify that kind of risk. AT98 vs Q432 is much more tempting.
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#6 User is offline   dellache 

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Posted 2010-January-08, 15:13

Qxx(x) always because Axx(x) is an awful lead at any rate (Aces are meant to take declarer's King/Queens, or provide entries). Qxxx is also often a poor lead.

I would prefer an xxxx, or xxx in a side suit though.
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#7 User is offline   dake50 

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Posted 2010-January-09, 07:47

Those three aren't comparable by card-to-choose as the 1st is passive -give nothing away. Whereas 2nd,3rd are much more attack hoping to hit our suit.
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#8 User is offline   kgr 

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Posted 2010-January-09, 07:54

I wonder if it is the same MP's or is the risk of giving a trick away with Qxxx too big?
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#9 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2010-January-10, 16:04

thx all.

I actually lean towards the Axxx lead because there seem to be more cases were you can make a length trick, and besides the ace is a sure entry. The Qxxx is good if pard has KJ or JT, but may be kind of sucky otherwise. Better if a major, but still......
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#10 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2010-January-10, 16:10

kgr you blow more tricks from Axxx than Qxxx.
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#11 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2010-January-10, 16:12

yes in a trump contract, but not so much in NT, mostly because the ace is in itself an entry for the length trick(s)
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