[gwnn]

texas holdem tournament

3 players remaining, blinds are 2.5/5k

I was SB and have about 40k
BB has about 30k
dealer has about 60k and folds.

I picked up ♠8♥5 but when BB looks at his cards he accidentally turns over the 2 of hearts. I saw it but dealer didn't.

I wasn't sure what to do so I announced that I saw a card and asked what should we do, they said play continues.

So LHO knows I know about his ♥2.

He was pretty tight even at this stage, he gave up his small blinds quite a few times, etc.

What should I do?

[jdonn]

My instinct is all in but let me analyze.

If you go all in I think he 'should' call with any hand (or maybe almost-any) given the pot odds he would have (25k to call a pot of 45k) and his dire situation if he folds. but you say he is too tight for this stage so I assume he doesn't realize how urgent it is for him to call. Let's say he will only call with A, K, Q or 2 since all other hands of his look very awful. So if you go allin then 69.4% of the time you will have 45,000. 6.1% of the time you are approximately 50-50. 24.5% of the time you are, I think, about 35%. Doing the math based on my approximations:
(.694 * 45,000) + ([.061+.1225] * 70,000)/2 + ([.061 + .1225] * 10,000)/2 = 31,230 + 6,422.5 +917.5 = 38,570.

So your expected stack size with an allin is over 38,500. If you fold you have 37,500. So by my estimations the expected value is on your side. A couple other factors in favor of moving in:
- You have his suit beaten.
- Picking up the blinds is huge right now. A stack of 45,000 is much more threatening to the big stack if you move all in next hand (he would have to call 83% of his stack) than a stack of 37,500 (he would have to call 68% of his stack).
- It will be much harder in general to pick on the other player, with his big stack, than this player, who is too tight and has a small stack.

All in!

[gwnn]

i looked up now odds for H2 vs 85 and looks like it's about 42% for us, better than i would have thought.

[Jlall]

Not shoving is a huge mistake.

[Jlall]

Jlall, on Dec 28 2009, 11:08 PM, said:

Not shoving is an epicly massive mistake that costs a ridiculous amount of chips in EV!

FMP

[gwnn]

I shoved and he instafolded with a bitter smile.

Then I f. up 10 minutes later and lost almost all my stack and finished third. But I thought this was an interesting hand.

[luke warm]

if you don't push now you have only one hand before the blinds hit you again... he knows you know about the deuce, he'd probably fold even with a pair of ducks... if i were in his spot and you pushed, i'd call with an ace, king, or (maybe) another deuce... since those are unlikely, pushing seems correct... poker, as hansen says, isn't always about the math of the situation - psychology enters into it

[Phil]

Devious little technique if he exposes a 2 from 2-2

[jdonn]

luke warm, on Dec 29 2009, 12:07 PM, said:

he knows you know about the deuce, he'd probably fold even with a pair of ducks...

lol????

[mike777]

Sidenote

In watching some Poker on tv this past month it really came across that many of these top players are not really playing Poker as a job or career.

The best description would be they are gamblers and they really come across as addicted to gambling in every sense of the word, addicts.

[luke warm]

Phil, on Dec 29 2009, 01:49 PM, said:

Devious little technique if he exposes a 2 from 2-2

i thought it was an accident?

[jonottawa]

I'd probably be inclined to bet about 15k. I would expect the same result as shoving 90%+ of the time. Shoving looks weaker imo, although you both know you're both pot committed in either case.

More important is the decision to announce the authorized information you had, that seems really dumb.

[gwnn]

well I had no idea what the rules were. I have no other excuse.

[barmar]

gwnn, on Dec 29 2009, 04:03 PM, said:

well I had no idea what the rules were. I have no other excuse.

Playing too much bridge?

[Al_U_Card]

There is no crying in baseball! (Tom Hanks in "A league of their own.")

There are no ethics in Poker.

and

You CAN'T play too much bridge....

[Gerben42]

Quote

There are no ethics in Poker.

Yes there are, they are just different.

Typical case:

Two players still in the hand, flop is QQ4. First player bets, then a third players (who is already out of the hand) says: Darn I would have had a Full House. This of course changes the odds by quite a margin, and is not acceptable behaviour.

In this actual case, you don't have to say anything, not even that you saw the card.