the 2 of hearts
#1
Posted 2009-December-28, 18:03
3 players remaining, blinds are 2.5/5k
I was SB and have about 40k
BB has about 30k
dealer has about 60k and folds.
I picked up ♠8♥5 but when BB looks at his cards he accidentally turns over the 2 of hearts. I saw it but dealer didn't.
I wasn't sure what to do so I announced that I saw a card and asked what should we do, they said play continues.
So LHO knows I know about his ♥2.
He was pretty tight even at this stage, he gave up his small blinds quite a few times, etc.
What should I do?
George Carlin
#2
Posted 2009-December-28, 18:27
If you go all in I think he 'should' call with any hand (or maybe almost-any) given the pot odds he would have (25k to call a pot of 45k) and his dire situation if he folds. but you say he is too tight for this stage so I assume he doesn't realize how urgent it is for him to call. Let's say he will only call with A, K, Q or 2 since all other hands of his look very awful. So if you go allin then 69.4% of the time you will have 45,000. 6.1% of the time you are approximately 50-50. 24.5% of the time you are, I think, about 35%. Doing the math based on my approximations:
(.694 * 45,000) + ([.061+.1225] * 70,000)/2 + ([.061 + .1225] * 10,000)/2 = 31,230 + 6,422.5 +917.5 = 38,570.
So your expected stack size with an allin is over 38,500. If you fold you have 37,500. So by my estimations the expected value is on your side. A couple other factors in favor of moving in:
- You have his suit beaten.
- Picking up the blinds is huge right now. A stack of 45,000 is much more threatening to the big stack if you move all in next hand (he would have to call 83% of his stack) than a stack of 37,500 (he would have to call 68% of his stack).
- It will be much harder in general to pick on the other player, with his big stack, than this player, who is too tight and has a small stack.
All in!
#3
Posted 2009-December-28, 22:00
George Carlin
#5
Posted 2009-December-28, 22:33
Jlall, on Dec 28 2009, 11:08 PM, said:
FMP
#6
Posted 2009-December-29, 03:36
Then I f. up 10 minutes later and lost almost all my stack and finished third. But I thought this was an interesting hand.
George Carlin
#7
Posted 2009-December-29, 11:07
#8
Posted 2009-December-29, 12:49
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#9
Posted 2009-December-29, 12:54
luke warm, on Dec 29 2009, 12:07 PM, said:
lol????
#10
Posted 2009-December-29, 13:16
In watching some Poker on tv this past month it really came across that many of these top players are not really playing Poker as a job or career.
The best description would be they are gamblers and they really come across as addicted to gambling in every sense of the word, addicts.
#11
Posted 2009-December-29, 13:19
Phil, on Dec 29 2009, 01:49 PM, said:
i thought it was an accident?
#12
Posted 2009-December-29, 13:44
More important is the decision to announce the authorized information you had, that seems really dumb.
#13
Posted 2009-December-29, 15:03
George Carlin
#14
Posted 2009-December-29, 15:39
gwnn, on Dec 29 2009, 04:03 PM, said:
Playing too much bridge?
#15
Posted 2009-December-29, 21:48
There are no ethics in Poker.
and
You CAN'T play too much bridge....
#16
Posted 2009-December-30, 02:04
Quote
Yes there are, they are just different.
Typical case:
Two players still in the hand, flop is QQ4. First player bets, then a third players (who is already out of the hand) says: Darn I would have had a Full House. This of course changes the odds by quite a margin, and is not acceptable behaviour.
In this actual case, you don't have to say anything, not even that you saw the card.