[Phil]

West opens 3H and you arrive in 7S.

LHO leads the KH and RHO plays the 2 (odd #).

---

Here's a hand from a book I purchased last week (I'll tell you later which one if you don't recognize it).

1. ♥K, A, 2 (odd#), 3
2. ♠K, x, x, x
3. ♠x, ♥x, A, x

How do you continue?

(I normally don't post such hands, but I thought this was interesting, and I thought the author made a mistake).

[Jlall]

If LHO has 4 clubs we need to squeeze him in the rounds. If LHO has less clubs than that, we need to ruff a club.

How do you we know how many clubs he has? We don't but we know his count in 2 suits, so if we get a count in the third suit, we'll know the club count. Accordingly, cash 2 diamonds. If LHO shows out, play for the squeeze. If LHO follows, ruff a club, pull trumps, claim.

If LHO is 1741 you will go down playing this way, but obviously that is a lot less likely than 1714 given that we're missing 5 diamonds and 6 clubs.

[shevek]

I don't get it.
If West is 7-1-1-4, there's no club ruff but I guess you can squeeze West.
However, that means running everything and going down to East with a stiff diamond.
So I just ruff a club, expecting to make. I figure that 7411s would have opened 4H.

[Fluffy]

I read the answer before I could think of the problem again

[Jlall]

shevek, on Dec 24 2009, 06:43 PM, said:

I don't get it.
If West is 7-1-1-4, there's no club ruff but I guess you can squeeze West.
However, that means running everything and going down to East with a stiff diamond.
So I just ruff a club, expecting to make. I figure that 7411s would have opened 4H.

If you think that west can never have 7411, then it does not hurt to cash 2 diamonds (west never has 4 right?).

Ergo, you should think in terms of west having 7411. If west is 7411 with 4 clubs, cashing 2 diamonds will show you this, and you can squeeze them. If west is 7411 with 4 diamonds, cashing 2 diamonds will give the defense a ruff. So which is the more likely of the 2?

[shevek]

Jlall, on Dec 24 2009, 10:00 PM, said:

shevek, on Dec 24 2009, 06:43 PM, said:

I don't get it.
If West is 7-1-1-4, there's no club ruff but I guess you can squeeze West.
However, that means running everything and going down to East with a stiff diamond.
So I just ruff a club, expecting to make. I figure that 7411s would have opened 4H.

If you think that west can never have 7411, then it does not hurt to cash 2 diamonds (west never has 4 right?).

Ergo, you should think in terms of west having 7411. If west is 7411 with 4 clubs, cashing 2 diamonds will show you this, and you can squeeze them. If west is 7411 with 4 diamonds, cashing 2 diamonds will give the defense a ruff. So which is the more likely of the 2?

Then my West is 1-6-4-2. That is at least plausbile. Don't care what card East played.
Who opens 3♥ on x, KQTxxxx, x, xxxx?
Unknown vul assumed not to EW!

[Jlall]

shevek, on Dec 24 2009, 11:20 PM, said:

Jlall, on Dec 24 2009, 10:00 PM, said:

shevek, on Dec 24 2009, 06:43 PM, said:

I don't get it.
If West is 7-1-1-4, there's no club ruff but I guess you can squeeze West.
However, that means running everything and going down to East with a stiff diamond.
So I just ruff a club, expecting to make. I figure that 7411s would have opened 4H.

If you think that west can never have 7411, then it does not hurt to cash 2 diamonds (west never has 4 right?).

Ergo, you should think in terms of west having 7411. If west is 7411 with 4 clubs, cashing 2 diamonds will show you this, and you can squeeze them. If west is 7411 with 4 diamonds, cashing 2 diamonds will give the defense a ruff. So which is the more likely of the 2?

Then my West is 1-6-4-2. That is at least plausbile. Don't care what card East played.
Who opens 3♥ on x, KQTxxxx, x, xxxx?
Unknown vul assumed not to EW!

I think almost everyone opens that 3H unless w/r. I also think everyone raise a 3H opener when they have 4 hearts and a stiff diamond, after 3H-X-?, so RHOs failure to bid 4H strongly suggests that he is not 4414.

[shevek]

Justin, what makes you think the actual East did not bid 4H?
There was no further info on the auction.

Still, agree that east being 4-3-4-2 more likely that 4-3-1-5.

[Jlall]

shevek, on Dec 25 2009, 06:25 AM, said:

Justin, what makes you think the actual East did not bid 4H?

Quote

There was no further info on the auction.

Seems like you answered your own question. If no other bids are given, obviously they passed. It is possible north bid 7D and south corrected to 7S and east didn't have a chance to bid, so I am assuming a little bit, but certainly we know that they passed throughout after opening 3H.

[Little Kid]

We are told West opened 3H and East gave odd count, seems safe to assume they are 7-3. Spades are 1-4. You need to figure out if ruffing a club is safe, if not you can squeeze West. The contract is pretty much 100% once you know the club position.

A count on diamonds will tell you which line to take by getting a count on West's hand. 0-1 diamonds and it is safe to ruff a club as East will have 3+. 2+ diamonds and you can squeeze him LHO in clubs and hearts.

Furthermore, it seems pretty unlikely that East has only 0-1 diamonds because that would give West a 7-6/7-5. The bidding would have probably been more agressive than a mere 3H. Diamonds seems like a good way to increase ur odds of making even more.

[gnasher]

I recognise this hand. It's from Tim Bourke's excellent Maastricht Challenge, isn't it?

Whilst 1741-4315 is a priori less likely than 1714-4342, is it relevant that when LHO has four clubs he will usually have some club honours? x KQxxxxx x QJxx looks even more like a 4♥ opener than x KQxxxxx xxxx x.

[Phil]

gnasher, on Dec 27 2009, 06:55 PM, said:

I recognise this hand. It's from Tim Bourke's excellent Maastricht Challenge, isn't it?

Good memory

[dellache]

Little Kid, on Dec 27 2009, 11:18 PM, said:

Furthermore, it seems pretty unlikely that East has only 0-1 diamonds because that would give West a 7-6/7-5. The bidding would have probably been more agressive than a mere 3H. Diamonds seems like a good way to increase ur odds of making even more.

Even if West being 1=7=5=0 is very very unlikely, you will of course have catered for this by cashing the ♣A before the ♦A . Just kidding.

[Phil]

dellache, on Dec 28 2009, 02:49 AM, said:

Little Kid, on Dec 27 2009, 11:18 PM, said:

Furthermore, it seems pretty unlikely that East has only 0-1 diamonds because that would give West a 7-6/7-5. The bidding would have probably been more agressive than a mere 3H. Diamonds seems like a good way to increase ur odds of making even more.

Even if West being 1=7=5=0 is very very unlikely, you will of course have catered for this by cashing the ♣A before the ♦A . Just kidding.

That's exactly what you should do.

[Jlall]

Phil, on Dec 28 2009, 11:33 AM, said:

dellache, on Dec 28 2009, 02:49 AM, said:

Little Kid, on Dec 27 2009, 11:18 PM, said:

Furthermore, it seems pretty unlikely that East has only 0-1 diamonds because that would give West a 7-6/7-5. The bidding would have probably been more agressive than a mere 3H. Diamonds seems like a good way to increase ur odds of making even more.

Even if West being 1=7=5=0 is very very unlikely, you will of course have catered for this by cashing the ♣A before the ♦A . Just kidding.

That's exactly what you should do.

lol

[Phil]

[quote name='Jlall' date='Dec 28 2009, 12:35 PM'] That's exactly what you should do. [/QUOTE]
lol [/quote]
"?"

[gnasher]

If LHO is 1750, RHO would probably have made a Lightner double (unless they play that as showing a heart void). Cashing ♣A does also cater for 1840. It costs only if LHO is 1606 (again with RHO failing to double), which is less likely than 1750.

I've run out of unlikely distributions to consider, so now I'm wondering about this:

Phil said:

I thought the author made a mistake

In my copy of the book, Bourke does recommend cashing ♣A followed by two diamonds. So what did he get wrong?

[Phil]

gnasher, on Dec 28 2009, 07:30 PM, said:

If LHO is 1750, RHO would probably have made a Lightner double (unless they play that as showing a heart void). Cashing ♣A does also cater for 1840. It costs only if LHO is 1606 (again with RHO failing to double), which is less likely than 1750.

I've run out of unlikely distributions to consider, so now I'm wondering about this:

Phil said:

I thought the author made a mistake

In my copy of the book, Bourke does recommend cashing ♣A followed by two diamonds. So what did he get wrong?

When I first read this hand, I thought the proper theme was to start by cashing the ♣A (safe, since LHO can't have 6 clubs), followed by the ♦A (now safe, since LHO cannot have 5 diamonds), followed by the ♣K (continuing safety - LHO cannot have four clubs), followed by the ♦K...

While this is a surefire way to make sure a club can be ruffed safety, it detracts from the general idea that you need a club entry to one of the hands to efect a round squeeze against LHO.

So I agree with the author, and agree with a high club followed by two diamonds.