[andrei]

all red, IMP, you hold:

♠Q9
♥9872
♦AT3
♣8643

biding goes:

p - 1♦ - p - 1♥
p - 2N - p - ??

[655321]

3NT

[andy_h]

Jdonn said:

They pay bonuses for games

[jdonn]

3nt wtp

[Siegmund]

pass wtp and be pleasantly surprised if p makes it.

"TP" for 3NT is that this is just about the worst hand I could possibly have had for my 1H bid - only 6HCP, not where my partner expects them to be, 2 of them possibly worth nothing at all. I would not have minded passing 1D here.

[Jlall]

Siegmund, on Dec 21 2009, 08:53 PM, said:

pass wtp and be pleasantly surprised if p makes it.

"TP" for 3NT is that this is just about the worst hand I could possibly have had for my 1H bid - only 6HCP, not where my partner expects them to be, 2 of them possibly worth nothing at all. I would not have minded passing 1D here.

Since you are the one making the final decision, and partner has defined his hand very tightly while you have not, you should be thinking of what he has shown not what you have shown.

He has shown 18-19 balanced without 4 hearts and at least 4 diamonds.

So you have 24-25 HCP. To many, that is already game vulnerable at imps. I don't think you'd do too badly doing all 24 HCP games red at imps when the alternative is two NT (note it's a big difference than the alternative being 1NT, because you are only costing your side 3 imps some of the time that you go down rather than 7), and I think you would be doing TERRIBLY to be playing 2N with 25.

But on top of that, you have ATx of partner's long suit which is very positive. Your honors being in diamonds rather than hearts is a GOOD thing, not a bad one, you fit partner well and if a heart lead is the killer they're unlikely to find it. You also have the possibly useful 987 of hearts, and possibly useful S9.

Against that, you are not really all 24-25, because partner will probably upgrade the top 10 % of his 17s and 19s, and never downgrade, but whatever... as jdonn said they pay a game bonus

[nigel_k]

Prefer 1NT the first time and bid 3NT now. It probably won't make though. This would be harder nonvul I think.

[pooltuna]

nigel_k, on Dec 21 2009, 09:09 PM, said:

Prefer 1NT the first time and bid 3NT now. It probably won't make though. This would be harder nonvul I think.

I agree with you so you'll need to put on your flak jacket not because I agreed but because you bypassed a crappy 4 card major suit.

[655321]

pooltuna, on Dec 21 2009, 10:35 PM, said:

I agree with you so you'll need to put on your flak jacket not because I agreed but because you bypassed a crappy 4 card major suit.

This is a mama papa hand, and I don't see any need to grab the notrumps from the strong hand. Just bid your suits naturally.

[jdonn]

Pleasantly surprised if partner makes? I feel like he makes 5 or 6 on lucky breaks every time I pass the 2NT rebid.

[chasetb]

Jlall, on Dec 21 2009, 09:08 PM, said:

Since you are the one making the final decision, and partner has defined his hand very tightly while you have not, you should be thinking of what he has shown not what you have shown.

He has shown 18-19 balanced without 4 hearts and at least 4 diamonds.

So you have 24-25 HCP. To many, that is already game vulnerable at imps. I don't think you'd do too badly doing all 24 HCP games red at imps when the alternative is two NT (note it's a big difference than the alternative being 1NT, because you are only costing your side 3 imps some of the time that you go down rather than 7), and I think you would be doing TERRIBLY to be playing 2N with 25.

But on top of that, you have ATx of partner's long suit which is very positive. Your honors being in diamonds rather than hearts is a GOOD thing, not a bad one, you fit partner well and if a heart lead is the killer they're unlikely to find it. You also have the possibly useful 987 of hearts, and possibly useful S9.

Against that, you are not really all 24-25, because partner will probably upgrade the top 10 % of his 17s and 19s, and never downgrade, but whatever... as jdonn said they pay a game bonus

I agree with you, Red at IMPs, I am hands down going to game. The price is too much for not bidding 3NT but making it. As I like to hide the stronger hand in NT, I'll ALWAYS bid 1♥ as long as the top card is an 8 or higher. While you only have 6 HCP, they are in partner's suits; I also believe there's an 8 card ♦ suit that will suit you well for that extra trick needed. So even non-vulnerable at MPs I am going for game.

[Siegmund]

Without addressing specific spots on this hand (having a sure entry with the DA is nice), my impression has been that 19-opposite-6 is a LOT less likely to make game than 13-opposite-12 or 15-opposite-10 is. Without simulating it, I'd guess that with 19 it's close to the breakeven point for a red imp game.

I could well be wrong - I stick to matchpoints unless someone puts a gun to my head - but I must say I was surprised to even see this question asked let alone 3NT getting so much support.

Do any of y'all who like going on play the 2NT jump as forcing, the way it was in the 50s, or do you all respond on so many 4-pointers you want to still bail out?

[Jlall]

Siegmund, on Dec 22 2009, 12:47 AM, said:

Without addressing specific spots on this hand (having a sure entry with the DA is nice), my impression has been that 19-opposite-6 is a LOT less likely to make game than 13-opposite-12 or 15-opposite-10 is.

I think a LOT is a definitely overstatement, but surely it is true that the more evenly distributed the high cards the better so you have entries etc.

As far as simulating it, I'm not sure what would happen, but I find it hard to believe that even double dummy game is not >40 % opposite a bal 19 count with 4-5 diamonds and 2-3 hearts. Even if it was less, they will frequently make the wrong lead in real life and that will often be the decider on a thin game. This combined with the possibility that they will later misdefend is much more likely than you going down when you could have made it double dummy.

Also, even if it is slightly less, it could be ok because you don't have the option of playing 1N. I mean to take a very extreme scenario, if game was 25 % to make, and 75% to go down 2, and they never doubled you should bid 3N in this case. Obviously that is completely artificial, but you see my point that you gain some extra edge in bidding from that fact (and also, sometimes misdefenses/wrong leads cost 2 or 3 tricks rather than just 1, so this factor plays in, etc).

Basically, you don't really need that high of a double dummy percentage to go from 2N to 3N red at imps, and in close situations I would always err on that side.

Admittedly against my argument is the fact that LHO MAY double given that our hearts are so weak, he might have strong hearts and want to ask for that lead, which means we need a higher percentage to bid 3N than normal.

But IMO 24-25 highs, some useful spots, and our values reasonably well placed is definitely enough of an excuse to go.

Quote

Do any of y'all who like going on play the 2NT jump as forcing, the way it was in the 50s, or do you all respond on so many 4-pointers you want to still bail out?

There is a regular poster here, Fluffy, who likes to play 2N as forcing, and could contain some hand types other than 18-19 balanced. However that is a very uncommon treatment, at least in USA (can't speak for other countries).

I think the modern trend, and especially for some of those that have already posted, is to respond with less than 6 quite often. On this forum I am known for taking that possibly to an extreme, but generally I do not pass if a game is possible, meaning a hand with a 5 card major and 4 or 5 points is pretty much always a response, a hand with an ace is a response, etc. I also try very hard to respond with a stiff in partner's minor.

Again, I am on the extreme side, but there has definitely been a trend to respond light. If you don't include other hand types in 2N other than 18-19 balanced, there's not really any reason to play it as forcing given that that is a very tight range, and you are well placed to bid accordingly. However, if you never respond with less than 6, it might be smart to add in some other hand types to unload your jumpshifts.

[Mbodell]

Jlall, on Dec 21 2009, 10:06 PM, said:

Basically, you don't really need that high of a double dummy percentage to go from 2N to 3N red at imps, and in close situations I would always err on that side.

How would it change if you were playing a different system such that you could play 1nt?

I realize it is a bit of a different problem but my partner and I would bid this hand 1♣-1♦-1nt with partner showing 18-19 balanced and us showing 0-7 or 8+ with at most 1 control. At this point we don't know about the suit usefulness. Red at IMPs would you pass, invite, or blast? And assuming you answer invite, if you had to choose pass 1nt or blast 3nt which would you pick?

[TylerE]

Red at IMPs? Why am I still thinking? I don't really expect this to make, but on a good day it will at we're certainly getting sufficient pot odds with the punt.

[gwnn]

3NT, defenders always help a little

[whereagles]

TylerE, on Dec 22 2009, 02:17 PM, said:

Red at IMPs? Why am I still thinking?

I would say a similar thing, namely

Red at IMPs? Why is this a problem?

[Fluffy]

2NT is forcing right?

[bid_em_up]

Siegmund, on Dec 22 2009, 12:47 AM, said:

I could well be wrong - I stick to matchpoints unless someone puts a gun to my head -

I think this is where your problem lies.

At matchpoints, passing 2N isn't that bad, and I suspect if the problem was posed as a matchpoint question, you would find a lot more support for passing 2N.

In IMP play, you cannot afford to miss a vulnerable game that will have any play whatsoever (some say greater than 40%). While you may not have nine legitimate tricks, you will make nine either via the opening lead or through misdefense often enough to make raising to three profitable in the long run.

Like most everyone else, this is an automatic raise to 3N for me.

[Jlall]

Mbodell, on Dec 22 2009, 02:19 AM, said:

Jlall, on Dec 21 2009, 10:06 PM, said:

Basically, you don't really need that high of a double dummy percentage to go from 2N to 3N red at imps, and in close situations I would always err on that side.

How would it change if you were playing a different system such that you could play 1nt?

I realize it is a bit of a different problem but my partner and I would bid this hand 1♣-1♦-1nt with partner showing 18-19 balanced and us showing 0-7 or 8+ with at most 1 control. At this point we don't know about the suit usefulness. Red at IMPs would you pass, invite, or blast? And assuming you answer invite, if you had to choose pass 1nt or blast 3nt which would you pick?

If I could I would invite to 2N, I would expect partner accept pretty aggressively (again, he is going from 2N to 3N, so he should be accepting usually) and if he passed with 18 and no 5 bagger or 17 and a 5 bagger I don't think we're missing game too often.

If I had to pass 1N or bid 3N I would choose 3N.