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worst lead decision I've seen in many time ok, just my opinion

Poll: your lead (38 member(s) have cast votes)

your lead

  1. spade (23 votes [60.53%])

    Percentage of vote: 60.53%

  2. heart (6 votes [15.79%])

    Percentage of vote: 15.79%

  3. diamond (5 votes [13.16%])

    Percentage of vote: 13.16%

  4. club (4 votes [10.53%])

    Percentage of vote: 10.53%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2009-December-09, 18:30

♠8xx
♥6xxx
♦KJx
♣AJ10


1NT-2♣
2♥-2NT*(promises 4 spades)
3NT-ps

This was MPs, but fel free to coment if IMPs would change your decision.
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#2 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2009-December-09, 19:04

This feels like a poll after MI about the promise of 4S. So, I will be the one who leads the spade 8 regardless of the information given.
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#3 User is offline   Jlall 

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Posted 2009-December-09, 19:07

Yeah you have to lead the S8, what else could you even consider?
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#4 User is offline   655321 

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Posted 2009-December-09, 19:07

I would lead a heart, hoping that this gives nothing away.
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
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#5 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2009-December-09, 19:09

Jlall, on Dec 9 2009, 06:07 PM, said:

Yeah you have to lead the S8, what else could you even consider?

Well, you do give up the second bite of the apple :rolleyes:
"Bidding Spades to show spades can work well." (Kenberg)
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#6 User is offline   Jlall 

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Posted 2009-December-09, 19:10

655321, on Dec 9 2009, 08:07 PM, said:

I would lead a heart, hoping that this gives nothing away.

A heart has no chance of setting anything up either even though it is less likely to blow a trick than a spade. Meh I don't like it but I guess it's not that bad.
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#7 User is offline   akhare 

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Posted 2009-December-09, 19:14

♠8 -- hopefully declarer will infer ♥ length in my hand and take a two way ♥Q finesse into pard's hand :rolleyes:..
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#8 User is offline   suokko 

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Posted 2009-December-09, 22:40

vs mini NT ♦ J would be sexy lead. Assuming strong I just lead a ♠.
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#9 User is offline   jonottawa 

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Posted 2009-December-09, 22:44

I led a ♠.
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#10 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2009-December-09, 22:49

I'd lead a spade. They are pushing for a game and the wrong minor could be fatal.

A heart doesn't feel very productive as it gives declarer an additional entry to lead up to his four card holding.
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#11 User is offline   Codo 

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Posted 2009-December-10, 01:56

If they all have their bids, they have around 8-9 HCPS opposite 16-17, so partner has around 6 HCPs. IT seems to be that the suits are breaking well for declarer, so I would go for an active lead and try the jack of club.
If partner really has "good" spades, I will be there to lead them later.
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#12 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2009-December-10, 03:57

I'd lead a ♥ in MP's, trying not to give anything away.

In imps it's not as easy because leading a ♥ probably won't defeat the contract. I might try a suicidal ♦K, or the more obvious ♠, depending on the state of the match.
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#13 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2009-December-10, 04:09

I'd lead a heart at any form of scoring. That isn't entirely passive: maybe the suit is distributed
109
   QJ7
AK85

A spade lead may butcher partner's holding in the suit, and I don't see how it is supposed to gain. Partner is unlikely to have both sufficient spade strength and sufficient entries to set up a long card in the suit. My minor-suit holdings mean I'll be in again several times, so if it's just a matter of setting up high-card winners in spades there's no hurry.
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#14 User is offline   Codo 

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Posted 2009-December-10, 04:59

gnasher, on Dec 10 2009, 07:09 PM, said:

My minor-suit holdings mean I'll be in again several times, so if it's just a matter of setting up high-card winners in spades there's no hurry.

Obviously I am the only one who disagrees with this.

If they have a lot of their points in their long suits, they will run 8 major tricks before they try any minor at all.
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#15 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2009-December-10, 14:22

Anyone who thinks they have nailed this lead is either using IM with a Kib watching declarer or is just delusional. The ♥ leaders have uniformly not realized they might be leading into a declarer's 5 card suit and given your spots that really rates to suck. On the other hand there is nothing that doesn't say partner can't hold ♥KQJTx. The spade leaders might be setting up declarer's ♠ suit for 4 tricks but on the other hand he might hold KJT9 over dummy's AQxx. If you want a guarantee on the opening lead I suggest you call Lloyd's of London for an insurance policy. However the premiums may not be cheap relatively speaking :lol:
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#16 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2009-December-10, 17:26

yes, Pool, but we did embarass ourselves with a lead choice, for whatever dumb reason we could come up with.
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#17 User is offline   655321 

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Posted 2009-December-10, 18:15

pooltuna, on Dec 10 2009, 03:22 PM, said:

Anyone who thinks they have nailed this lead is either using IM with a Kib watching declarer or is just delusional. The ♥ leaders have uniformly not realized they might be leading into a declarer's 5 card suit and given your spots that really rates to suck. On the other hand there is nothing that doesn't say partner can't hold ♥KQJTx. The spade leaders might be setting up declarer's ♠ suit for 4 tricks but on the other hand he might hold KJT9 over dummy's AQxx. If you want a guarantee on the opening lead I suggest you call Lloyd's of London for an insurance policy. However the premiums may not be cheap relatively speaking  :(

Yes Mr Fish, I have carefully read your post twice and still can't quite find your recommended lead!

But even though you don't give an answer you have made an erroneous statement ("The ♥ leaders have uniformly not realized they might be leading into a declarer's 5 card suit ") and a dubious claim ("On the other hand there is nothing that doesn't say partner can't hold ♥KQJTx."). Not sure that many LHOs would bid this way with a void in hearts.
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
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#18 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2009-December-10, 18:56

Hope not many expectations, but the lead didn't matter at all, I think a minor lead was blowing an overtrick but don't remember wich.
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#19 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2009-December-10, 20:34

655321, on Dec 10 2009, 07:15 PM, said:

pooltuna, on Dec 10 2009, 03:22 PM, said:

Anyone who thinks they have nailed this lead is either using IM with a Kib watching declarer or is just delusional. The ♥ leaders have uniformly not realized they might be leading into a declarer's 5 card suit and given your spots that really rates to suck. On the other hand there is nothing that doesn't say partner can't hold ♥KQJTx. The spade leaders might be setting up declarer's ♠ suit for 4 tricks but on the other hand he might hold KJT9 over dummy's AQxx. If you want a guarantee on the opening lead I suggest you call Lloyd's of London for an insurance policy. However the premiums may not be cheap relatively speaking  :lol:

Yes Mr Fish, I have carefully read your post twice and still can't quite find your recommended lead!

But even though you don't give an answer you have made an erroneous statement ("The ♥ leaders have uniformly not realized they might be leading into a declarer's 5 card suit ") and a dubious claim ("On the other hand there is nothing that doesn't say partner can't hold ♥KQJTx."). Not sure that many LHOs would bid this way with a void in hearts.

well I voted for a ♠ but without any great hope
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#20 User is offline   jonottawa 

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Posted 2009-December-10, 22:23

Fluffy, on Dec 11 2009, 12:56 AM, said:

Hope not many expectations, but the lead didn't matter at all, I think a minor lead was blowing an overtrick but don't remember wich.

This was the worst lead of all time!

What was the lead?

Damned if I can remember.
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