[Fluffy]

IMPs, Vulnerable none, dealer east

Scoring: IMP

1♣-1♦
3♣-3♦
3♥-3NT
4♣-4♦
4♥-4♠
6♣-pass

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Bid these 2 better than us, and also play(guess) the board when west who is an expert (World master) auto-leads ♠5.

[MFA]

The bidding is fine. Perhaps the final 6♣ is a bit fresh (instead of just 5♣).

I play low and pay off to the genius. If he got me then ok. I would never play for an underlead in such a situation.

[Codo]

I think a spade lead is so auto after this auction, that it is close to 50 % who has the ace. But it is just close to 50% , so I would play low too.

[Jlall]

Codo, on Dec 12 2009, 05:52 AM, said:

I think a spade lead is so auto after this auction, that it is close to 50 % who has the ace. But it is just close to 50% , so  I would play low too.

except if you pop king and you're right you have way more extra chances to make 6 than if you play small you're right. If it's actually 50/50 or close definitely go up with the king.

[Jlall]

As far as popping king vs ducking at trick 1, I would need a huge reason to believe that LHO is capable of routinely underleading his ace to even consider it. World master is not enough. I need a long history vs him, or he needs to be very well known with a reputation with someone like zia/brogeland.

[gnasher]

Can we infer anything from RHO's failure to double 4♠?

With ♠A and a heart honour, perhaps he wouldn't double because the right defence might be to set up a heart trick whilst he still has spade control. With ♠Q, maybe he would double to try to get a lead from ♠K, both to set up a trick and to attack dummy's entry to the diamond suit. That suggests playing low.

By the way, I think the auction suggests a heart lead. I don't think this helps with the decision at trick one, though - I can't think of a hand where I'd lead a low spade.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2009-December-12, 06:49

[Codo]

gnasher, on Dec 12 2009, 09:43 PM, said:

By the way, I think the auction suggests a heart lead. I don't think this helps with the decision at trick one, though - I can't think of a hand where I'd lead a low spade.

Why do you want to lead into declarers stopper instead of dummies stopper?

[shevek]

Think I'd play it in 20 seconds. ♠K, top clubs, diamond finesse.
"Alternatives obscure"

[Jlall]

Personally I could totally see a spade lead from the queen- you might cash 2 tricks, and they have some chance of running the minors on you if you don't lead it.

You could use the same kind of desperation rationale for underleading the SA- it's the most likely way to take 2 tricks. However, it is also a really big lead, especially if his clubs were not exactly xx or xxx, he would see no reason for such heroics. He would either cash his ace hoping to get a trick somewhere, or would decide a heart lead is necessary before the SA is dislodged for pitches (this seems quite unlikely though, I disagree that he should always lead a heart, but I definitely think he would not underlead the SA if he had some reason to think he might get a minor suit trick somewhere.)

Personally I think the fact that a huge range of his SA hands would cash it rather than underlead it is by far a big enough clue to outweigh your natural advantage if it was 50/50 in that the king would leave you much better placed. I mean if he underled the SA with Qx or Qxx of clubs, or even a stiff club...wow, more power to him!

Also I do not place much of an inference from RHO not doubling a cuebid, doubling tells them the SA is off, and is not even guaranteed to get us off to the best lead, and it gives them more room to operate when space is running out. Not to mention that a heart lead might be right, obviously RHO has a heart honor or LHO would have been happy to lead from KQJ, or even KQ. Given that he has a heart honor, I think doubling with either the SA or the SQ would be extremely poor. Let them bid whatever, and let partner figure out the winning lead. People really don't give partner enough credit here. He can listen to the auction and evaluate the winning lead far more accurately than us making a unilateral decision that a spade is a MUST.

However, I do think that if RHO had the SA and a potential club trick, he would have gone ahead and doubled 4S, so that slightly implies that LHO has underled, but only very slightly.

[Jlall]

Your auction seems pretty reasonable to me also fwiw. Could definitely see myself duplicating that auction playing with myself on a bad day

[gnasher]

Codo, on Dec 12 2009, 01:52 PM, said:

Why do you want to lead into declarers stopper instead of dummies stopper?

Because partner didn't double 4♠, but he didn't have a chance to double a heart cue-bid. Maybe such an inference isn't available when Justin's defending, but personally I find that my partners and I need all the help they can get with their slam leads.

Justin said:

Also I do not place much of an inference from RHO not doubling a cuebid, doubling tells them the SA is off

Not necessarily. I'd be at least as likely to double 4♠ with the queen as with the ace.

[Jlall]

gnasher, on Dec 12 2009, 08:17 AM, said:

Codo, on Dec 12 2009, 01:52 PM, said:

Why do you want to lead into declarers stopper instead of dummies stopper?

Because partner didn't double 4♠, but he didn't have a chance to double a heart cue-bid. Maybe such an inference isn't available when Justin's defending, but personally I find that my partners and I need all the help they can get with their slam leads.

Justin said:

Also I do not place much of an inference from RHO not doubling a cuebid, doubling tells them the SA is off

Not necessarily. I'd be at least as likely to double 4♠ with the queen as with the ace.

Doubling with the spade queen and a heart honor just seems really terrible to me. To each their own, but I'd rather partner make the decision about which honor he wants to hit, rather than just making some double on the queen and out. Let partner do his thing, he has a ton of information to work with, he doesn't need me confusing the issue on something really speculative.

And yes, I strongly suspect RHO having a heart honor based on LHOs failure to lead a heart honor. I could see RHO doubling on the queen and out with no heart honor (I wouldn't but I can see it), but that is not the case here.

[Jlall]

gnasher, on Dec 12 2009, 08:17 AM, said:

Codo, on Dec 12 2009, 01:52 PM, said:

Why do you want to lead into declarers stopper instead of dummies stopper?

Because partner didn't double 4♠, but he didn't have a chance to double a heart cue-bid. Maybe such an inference isn't available when Justin's defending, but personally I find that my partners and I need all the help they can get with their slam leads.

Heh you should play with my dad, we are completely opposite on this issue and it just infuriates me when my normal lead would have set them but instead I lead the suit he doubled and it's a disaster.

I always wanna say "I'm not your 8 year old kid anymore, I'm a big boy now and can make good decisions!"

Maybe I should adjust to these super aggro doubles and make the normal lead anyways, but then his doubles are pointless and not helping at all, and it is hurting when he actually DOES have a hand that NEEDs a spade lead.

[Jlall]

And admittedly they miss their chance for the brilliancy prize with RHO doubling 4S with the queen and out and LHO underleading his ace

[MFA]

While a spade lead might be automatic, an underlead is not. This slam is not bid with full control, and underleading runs the huge risk of giving away a silly, doomed slam.

[Jlall]

MFA, on Dec 12 2009, 08:42 AM, said:

While a spade lead might be automatic, an underlead is not. This slam is not bid with full control, and underleading runs the huge risk of giving away a silly, doomed slam.

Short, sweet, and simple. All of the words I was using before was basically in the hopes of communicating what you summed up very well.

MFA's post is the crux of the hand.

[Fluffy]

LHO had the 3 queens that matter, I played the King because it would give me extra chances if it held, what I didn't yet suspect is that it also gave me chances when it losed!. RHO won ♠A and switched to ♥K

We losed one imp as the other table played in 6♦ on a similar auction, but rectifying the final contract. I think 6♦ is a better contract and partner might had rectified.

[shevek]

Fluffy, on Dec 12 2009, 05:24 PM, said:

LHO had the 3 queens that matter, I played the King because it would give me extra chances if it held, what I didn't yet suspect is that it also gave me chances when it losed!. RHO won ♠A and switched to ♥K

We losed one imp as the other table played in 6♦ on a similar auction, but rectifying the final contract. I think 6♦ is a better contract and partner might had rectified.

Looks like East thought you had ♠Q and wanted to kill the diamond suit. That could be right if declarer had something like
Qx, xxx, x, AKQJxxx
Admittedly, declarer may have played low from dummy with that but that's not quite clear.
Just another reason for flying ♠K