[pooltuna]

jdonn, on Nov 23 2009, 02:17 PM, said:

pooltuna, on Nov 23 2009, 02:05 PM, said:

jdonn, on Nov 23 2009, 01:56 PM, said:

pooltuna, on Nov 23 2009, 01:53 PM, said:

jdonn, on Nov 23 2009, 01:47 PM, said:

Lol yes if you always give partner a doubleton in our doubleton, the hands will fit badly! Do you have a system on the first hand that avoids slam on your example but gets there if one of his spades is a diamond (which it's more likely to be)? Do that to either of your 'bad slam' examples and slam is fine.

you said you had the tools to handle these. Do you or don't you? If you end up just guessing then you have to argue the number of hands that lead to a makeable slam exceed those that don't and I think that is far from certain.

Are you just trolling now?

Depends on your definition, Frankly, I didn't believe you when you said you had the tools to make looking for slam a percentage choice. But if you did I was interested in seeing what you had. What I got was a ♣ transfer and then play it by ear. Maybe we need to see a simul by Han that shows how many club tricks you take for a 16 point balanced opening hand opposite this

What you call "play it be ear" is actually called "quantitative bidding". This is like me suggesting 1NT p 4NT on a balanced 16 count and you pointing out a bunch of hands for opener that would bid 6NT but don't make slam. So what? Mention that you think inviting slam is against the odds and leave it at that. What makes you think I have to have proof for something because you think it's "far from certain"?

But no, you just love persisting. Would you rather I took each of your examples and pointed out that opener knows AK doubleton is overvalued, that you gave very unlikely and specific shapes, that if partner has Jxxxx of clubs he knows the jack is wasted? Should I mention that it's right to try for slam even if far fewer than half of opener's hands make slam, since you should only be worried about what percentage make slam out of the ones where he accepts an invitation?

Or would you think it's more fun for me to point out that you have some strange obsession with me, proven by you quoting my posts more often than all other forums posters combined? Check if you don't believe it, I'd put money that it's true. I'm flattered but a little creeped out and annoyed by it.

First let me apologize for probably teasing a little too hard and after this response I will cease and desist any response to your posts ...go in peace.

As for quantitative bidding I suspect most of us are aware of how it works. In this particular case you have somewhere between 27 and 29 HCP in total partnership assets. As I am sure you well know 33 is the target because you cannot be missing 2 cashing aces. Nevertheless you are probably using an addendum to this since the 6 card club suit is not enough to compensate for the missing 4 to 6 HCP. Consequently you rate to be counting tricks and controls which is why the slam is odds on opposite ♥/♦ AK and AKQ. My problem is I don't see how partner is to know you need 5 immediately cashable tricks and why

---

is not adequate.

Live long and prosper

[kenrexford]

[quote name='pooltuna' date='Nov 23 2009, 02:57 PM'] [quotes]

[apology]

As for quantitative bidding I suspect most of us are aware of how it works. In this particular case you have somewhere between 27 and 29 HCP in total partnership assets. As I am sure you well know 33 is the target because you cannot be missing 2 cashing aces. Nevertheless you are probably using an addendum to this since the 6 card club suit is not enough to compensate for the missing 4 to 6 HCP. Consequently you rate to be counting tricks and controls which is why the slam is odds on opposite [he]/[di] AK and AKQ. My problem is I don't see how partner is to know you need 5 immediately cashable tricks and why

---

is not adequate.

Live long and prosper [/quote]
Wow. You found a hand where slam can be set on a diamond lead but makes on any other lead. Sometimes that happens.

Or, you don't get a diamond lead and make the slam.

Or, you do what I suggested and bid 4[cl]. Take the actual hand and your hand:

1NT-P-2[sp](clubs)-P-
2NT(likes clubs)-P-4[cl](slam interest, no stiffs)-P-
4[di](RKCB)-P-4[he](3)-P-
4[sp](Q?)-P-4NT(yes, but no Kings)-P-
???

Opener can now visualize a clear loser somewhere (one missing key card). Opener also knows that Responder has 2-3 diamonds without the King. So, he could sign off for fear of a diamond lead, if he wants.

Or, maybe Opener simply cues. If he senses concern over the diamond lead early on, he could cue 4[he], expecting a signoff if Responder doesn't have the diamond King.

[mikeh]

pooltuna: I understand the points you are making (at least, I think I do) but I also think that you are badly mistaken.

Firstly, nothing Josh wrote (and his proposed approach was exactly the same as mine, so any criticism of him should also be addressed to me) suggested that he had the tools to bid slam whenever it made and not when it didn't. He suggested, and I agree, that it is possible, within the given methods, to reach many of the good slams and avoid most of the bad ones...but I am sure he'd agree that we will miss some good ones and fail in some bad ones that we reach.

There are two scenarios in which we try for slam.

Firstly, he likes clubs and we bid 4N.

This is a slam try denying a side stiff or void. He has ALREADY announced a good hand for clubs and we are not driving to slam. Instead, we are asking 'in the context that we already know you like your hand....is it really good for clubs or just good'.

I have a hard time constructing a hand for opener on which he will think that he has a 'good' good hand lacking any club cards above the jack and only one Ace.

Your example, altho close, doesn't cut it....opener has already shown those values when he announced he liked clubs....if he didn't announce he liked clubs, he has NO reason to pull 3N)

Second scenario: he made a non-encouraging call over our transfer, and we bid 3N. Presumably he correctly saw this as a mild slam try. We have severely limited our hand: we lack the hand on which to jump to 4N, a stronger but still non-forcing, try.

He surely needs a phenomenal hand to move now.... and I cannot imagine such a hand containing only one Ace....and the vast majority of hands I can imagine offer at least a play for slam.

[hanp]

So it's back to the main question... How many HCP for 6 clubs?