[Phil]

hanp, on Nov 19 2009, 07:19 PM, said:

Csaba, when I use 10-12 HCP I get the following numbers:

with 6 hearts 3NT makes 19% of the time and 4H makes 32% of the time.

with 6 spades 3NT makes 14% of the time and 4S makes 27% of the time.

Way to go Phil!

Vindicated! hehe

[jdonn]

Ok now I'm really interested since I don't believe it. Sorry to put you to work han but if you would be so kind, what are the results (I don't much care about 3NT personally) when partner has 6 hearts/spades and each individual hcp amount from 5 to 12?

Also just for full information, did you make any allowance to have at least a fair suit? (I don't actually know whether that would be better or worse for what I believe)

[dake50]

Whichever Major partner has, he chose to make the other Major harder to come into this auction. So I want 6xS, as partner's 6xH preempting opponents Spades(as he assumes) means 0-1xSpade and wasted SQ.
Why didn't partner start 1H or 1S? Esp in late seat?

[Jlall]

If partner has 6 spades they probably make 4H lol

[hanp]

jdonn, on Nov 19 2009, 07:58 PM, said:

Ok now I'm really interested since I don't believe it. Sorry to put you to work han but if you would be so kind, what are the results (I don't much care about 3NT personally) when partner has 6 hearts/spades and each individual hcp amount from 5 to 12?

I pass

Quote

Also just for full information, did you make any allowance to have at least a fair suit? (I don't actually know whether that would be better or worse for what I believe)

No, I wrote down my speficiations. These last results were again for 4000 hands each.

[kgr]

hanp, on Nov 20 2009, 02:19 AM, said:

Csaba, when I use 10-12 HCP I get the following numbers:

with 6 hearts 3NT makes 19% of the time and 4H makes 32% of the time.

with 6 spades 3NT makes 14% of the time and 4S makes 27% of the time.

Way to go Phil!

Han,

Thanks a lot for the simulation:
..to be sure...Was this opposite the example hand?:
AQxx=xxx=Axx=xxx
..and so: If partner is weak you are better off if he has Hearts; If he has 11 pts you are better of if he has Spades?

[hanp]

kgr, on Nov 20 2009, 05:37 PM, said:

..and so: If partner is weak you are better off if he has Hearts; If he has 11 pts you are better of if he has Spades?

Yes exactly.

In other words, no exactly the other way around.

[kgr]

hanp, on Nov 22 2009, 12:00 AM, said:

kgr, on Nov 20 2009, 05:37 PM, said:

..and so: If partner is weak you are better off if he has Hearts; If he has 11 pts you are better of if he has Spades?

Yes exactly.

In other words, no exactly the other way around.

yes exactly: the other way around.

....there is some logic in it (increased change of ducplication), but still surprising.
If you expect that partner always has at least 2 honnours in his 6-card, then H is probably always better?