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What's your style?

Poll: What's your call? (42 member(s) have cast votes)

What's your call?

  1. 2C (23 votes [54.76%])

    Percentage of vote: 54.76%

  2. 2S (18 votes [42.86%])

    Percentage of vote: 42.86%

  3. Monkey/Other (1 votes [2.38%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.38%

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#1 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2009-November-16, 11:56

Scoring: IMP

1 - 1;
?


2 or 2?
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#2 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2009-November-16, 12:07

Pretty sure I know how this is going to go around here.

I'm a 2 bidder.
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#3 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2009-November-16, 12:15

2 always :rolleyes:
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#4 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2009-November-16, 12:16

2
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#5 User is offline   manudude03 

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Posted 2009-November-16, 12:17

2 assuming we have a way to check back for support.
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#6 User is offline   neilkaz 

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Posted 2009-November-16, 12:25

2 with a good 6 card suit and only 3

Most of my partners prefer it when I don't give them 3 card support initially. That being said, if I had only 5 or my 6 card suit were really trashy, I'd bid 2 here.
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#7 User is online   awm 

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Posted 2009-November-16, 12:34

No big surprise that I bid 2 on this.

While this is somewhat of an oversimplification, it seems like raising is often good when partner has exactly five spades (reaches a better partial when partner's passing, sets the suit in a non-awkward way, etc) whereas rebidding clubs is often good when partner has only four spades (better partial, more room to negotiate for 3NT, etc). Assuming we have this shape and partner has a 1 response, I ran a simulation to find out how many spades partner should hold. The results:

(1) Assuming a style where a 1 response can contain much longer diamonds (i.e. 1 response shows 4+ and not exactly 4-4 in the majors) partner will have exactly five spades about 45.4% of the time, six or more spades about 16.8% of the time, and exactly four spades about 37.8% of the time.

(2) Assuming a style where a 1 response denies holding five diamonds with only four spades (i.e. 1 shows 4+ but not exactly 4-4 in the majors and not 4 and 5+) then partner will have exactly five spades about 50.4% of the time, six or more spades about 18.8% of the time, and exactly four spades about 30.8% of the time.

Again, there's obviously more to it than this. What works best for you will depend on your methods after the single raise, your methods after the 2 rebid, exactly when you respond 1 versus 1 (versus raising clubs?) and so forth. The tradeoffs are not exactly clear, nor are the relative sizes of gains and losses. But it does seem that partner is more likely to have exactly 5 than exactly 4 by a fairly substantial margin.
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#8 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2009-November-16, 12:37

I bid 2 because with a suit this good I think it's way safer. This may be a change from an answer I would have given in the past.

Adam I think you are missing something. Let's agree that it only matters if partner is less than invitational, since if he takes another bid we can go to spades. In that case the opponents often balance, or maybe LHO doubles 2 with the red suits, and then we can bid 2 freely next round and really get our hand across. Obviously then we not only recover when partner has 5 spades but we don't risk him having 4 spades, we are way ahead of someone who raised directly and might even have been invited to the 3 level based on a fit.

Also it's imps. If 2 makes then 2 probably makes given how good our clubs are, but I think the opposite is true far less often. In other words the cost of 2 when partner has 5 spades is a lot lower than the cost of 2 when partner has 4 spades imo.
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#9 User is offline   maggieb 

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Posted 2009-November-16, 12:58

I would bid 2 on this hand, but I would bid 2 if you made the hand a little stronger. I am much more concerned about missing 4 with something like Axx x QJx AKT9xx if I bid 2. Also if we are playing a partial, my club suit is so good that I think 2 will often fare fine.

I also want to add that it's not like bidding 2 is a magic ticket to bidding every making game when partner has spade length. You will often not get there anyway.

Good comments by jdonn and awm.
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#10 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2009-November-16, 12:59

2 may win when p has 9-10 points and 5 spades and bids game over 2 but passes 2. But then he will probably have some wasted values in hearts so maybe we shouldn't be too keen on a thin 4. If he has 5 spades with a strong hand it is probably better to bid 2 as it leaves more space. If he has a weak hand it probably doesn't matter at IMPs although 2 may be more attractive at MPs. If he has 8-9 points with 6 spades he won't pass 2 anyway.

T-Walsh is cool when you want to show 3-card support without bypassing 1NT or 2, but with this particular hand I see no serious downside to just bidding 2.

I don't like raising on 3 too often. If p tries for game over it, 2NT, 3 or even 3 could be the last making contract. It is even worse when people raise 1, bypassing a 4-card spades. Then all five denominations are still open.
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#11 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2009-November-16, 13:14

I've tried 2 on 6-3 hands like this a couple of times and wasn't too happy about the outcomes... lol.

Still, with a singleton I think I can survive this one. 2 it is. Had it been a 3226 I think 2 is preferrable.
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#12 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2009-November-16, 13:28

jdonn, on Nov 16 2009, 06:37 PM, said:

Let's agree that it only matters if partner is less than invitational, since if he takes another bid we can go to spades. In that case the opponents often balance, or maybe LHO doubles 2 with the red suits

isn't "often" a significant overbid?
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#13 User is offline   Gerben42 

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Posted 2009-November-16, 13:33

I have 6 good Clubs, seems 2 is obvious. This might look like an oversimplification but 2 here is masterminding.
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#14 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2009-November-16, 13:37

Echognome, on Nov 16 2009, 12:56 PM, said:

Scoring: IMP

1 - 1;
?


2 or 2?

This is a close decision if the Q were the K I would probably, I didn't look so assume IMPS, bid 2 to goad partner to a close game.
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#15 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2009-November-16, 14:06

jdonn, on Nov 16 2009, 10:37 AM, said:

Adam I think you are missing something. Let's agree that it only matters if partner is less than invitational, since if he takes another bid we can go to spades. In that case the opponents often balance, or maybe LHO doubles 2 with the red suits, and then we can bid 2 freely next round and really get our hand across. Obviously then we not only recover when partner has 5 spades but we don't risk him having 4 spades, we are way ahead of someone who raised directly and might even have been invited to the 3 level based on a fit.

The flip side of this is that maybe it's more difficult for the opponents to compete if they have to commit to the 3-level.
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#16 User is online   awm 

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Posted 2009-November-16, 14:29

I agree with Gnome and Gwynn's points about the frequency of opponents competing not being as high as Josh seems to believe, and the fact that bidding only 2 allows them to sneak in a call at the two-level which they then raise to the three-level, whereas 2 might shut them out.

Another point is that there's a correlation between opponents balancing and the size of the club fit. When you rebid 2 into a 6-1 fit, opponents are much more likely to pass you out than when you rebid 2 into a 6-3 fit. This makes using the balance to push you from a poor club fit to a better spade fit more dubious.
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#17 User is offline   EricK 

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Posted 2009-November-16, 14:37

Why isn't there an option for "I bid 2 on hands like this but want my partner to bid 2 when he holds hands like this"?
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#18 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2009-November-16, 14:59

I have clubs. Really good ones.

I don't have a known spade fit.

Seems easy. 2.
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#19 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2009-November-16, 15:10

For clarification when I said "often" I didn't mean most of the time. I meant something like a significant minority.
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#20 User is offline   Jlall 

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Posted 2009-November-16, 15:11

awm, on Nov 16 2009, 03:29 PM, said:

Gwynn's

I guess you are more sympathetic than you used to be wrt people who spell names incorrectly despite it being right in front of their faces :)

Anyways I would bid 2S with this hand, I don't want him to pass 2C when we make 4S.
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