Posted 2009-November-16, 14:41
Hi Eugene !
For a start, I think it would be much better to post this kind of problem with important extraneous facts like :
- the full sequence (how do we interpret the lead ?) ;
- the strength of oppos (is LHO a LOL or LOM who would lead a very dangerous Jack from JTx in spite of dummy's known spades ?)
- the speed of the lead : did West lead a very quick ♠J, or did he consider another lead ?
Let's suppose that North just bid spades on 1♥, then gave fit in Clubs, and they went on a quick slam. I would expect a trump or a Diamond lead then, and never a ♠J lead from JTx+.
If West led it quickly, it's odds on that he has J or JT bare, and I would play accordingly.
We can make even if both suits are 4-1, if we play like this :
[1] Take ♠K, [2] Ruff a Heart, [3] Cash ♦A, [4] ruff a diamond.
It looks like you have shortened both hands now, but it doesn't really matter.
[5] Play a spade toward dummy.
Case a. West discards a diamond.
We have to hope that he had at least 4 diamonds. We cash [6] ♦K discarding a spade, and if we have survived, we can cross-ruff the reminder and make 12 tricks.
Case b. West plays the Spade Ten.
We take [6]♠Ace, and [7] Cash the ♦K discarding a spade. Then we finish on cross-ruff lines. We don't care about trumps being also 4-1.
Case c. West plays a small Spade.
What a JOKE !
We have no choice but to play [6] the Ace, and if East ruffs this, too bad.
If we make the trick, we can still manage 12 tricks if Trumps are 4-1. We continue with [7] ♦K, and discard a Spade. Now we play [8] ♠Q. If East has 4 trumps we don't care if he ruffs this : we overruff and finish the hand on cross ruff. If he discards a Heart, threatening an Overruf, we do the same, and we always make 12 tricks.
(If West has led the ♠J in Jx, we also finish on a cross ruff).
Actually, there seems to be NO line at the start which allows you to cater for both 4-1 splits, both ways. The above line succeeds almost always when West has short spades. Even with 3-2 spades, it seems to succeed most of the time.
What did I miss ?
FD