[suokko]

Scoring: IMP

2NT-6NT

♠3 lead

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How would you play it?

If you play ♠J to frist trick it might hold or might not ... That means you need to plan the play without this info.

Edit: Changed the declarer to be south.

[gwnn]

Hi Pauli could you please make declarer South, I hope you don't mind me saying this. The readability of a problem is more important than geographical faithfulness.

[dellache]

With xxx, xxxx, xxxxx, which card do they lead against slam ? Please do not answer 3rd/5th...
(just kidding )

[suokko]

dellache, on Nov 7 2009, 10:31 PM, said:

With xxx, xxxx, xxxxx, which card do they lead against slam ? Please do not answer 3rd/5th...
(just kidding )

random

I was the opener leader. I'm known to underlead honors vs slams pretty often. Also I do randomize the card which I lead but rarely the highest spot to protect partner from possible squeeze position.
xX xXX xXXX xXXXX are most likely leads. If it really matters to your line of play.

[dellache]

At the table, I'd just take in hand, play Club to Queen, Diamond to Jack :
1. It holds. I claim 12/13 tricks depending on the ♦Split (if they don't split I'll give them a Heart).
2. West takes her Queen. I check Diamonds. If they split I claim. If East discards, I'll hope for a stiff ♥K . If West had the stiff ♦Q, I'll take the remote chance of a Red squeeze against East.

[Winstonm]

Low from dummy and win in hand. Low heart toward the J. Assuming the jack wins, I lead a second heart and duck all around. Eventually, I will cash the heart Ace to try to fell the Kxx on the left before I try the diamond finesse.

My plan is to win 4 clubs, 3 spades, 3 hearts, and 2 diamonds or to win 4 clubs, 3 spades, 2 hearts, and 3 diamonds.

[jdonn]

Winstonm, on Nov 7 2009, 10:06 PM, said:

Low from dummy and win in hand.  Low heart toward the J.  Assuming the jack wins, I lead a second heart and duck all around.  Eventually, I will cash the heart Ace to try to fell the Kxx on the left before I try the diamond finesse.

My plan is to win 4 clubs, 3 spades, 3 hearts, and 2 diamonds or to win 4 clubs, 3 spades, 2 hearts, and 3 diamonds.

It seemed obvious to me to just play on diamonds and your line hadn't occured to me, so let me think about it.

Essentially, you're gaining (versus just going to dummy and playing on diamonds right away) when diamonds don't break, the diamond is offside, and K or Kx or Kxx of hearts is on your left (in other words that's the scenario when you make and I go down). You're losing when the diamond is offside, the diamonds do break, and either the king of hearts is on your right or Kxxx(x)(x)(x) is on your left.

The diamond being offside is a wash in both cases so ignore that. So you are weighing:
- Short heart K on left + stiff Q or Qxxx of diamonds on left
- Long heart king on left or K of hearts on right + Qx or Qxx of diamonds on left.

The hoped-for heart scenario in your line is less likely (by a lot) than in the line of playing on diamonds. And the hoped-for diamond scenario in your line is less likely (by a lot) than in the line of playing on diamonds. Your line is far inferior to just playing a club to dummy (if the jack of spades is covered at trick 1) and taking a diamond finesse.

In fact it's even worse than it looks. I calculate the layout you gain over playing on diamonds (hearts in the shorter holding on your left + diamonds not breaking with queen on your left) as 4.53%. I calculate the layout you lose to playing on diamonds (hearts in the longer holding on your left or in any holding on your right + diamonds breaking 3-2 with queen off) as 24.36%. In all other cases (such as diamond onside in any holding) playing on either red suit first either both make or both go down, so you are giving up 20% to the obvious line.

It's also worse for the overtrick for obvious reasons although that really doesn't matter.

[suokko]

dellache, on Nov 7 2009, 10:53 PM, said:

At the table, I'd just take in hand, play Club to Queen, Diamond to Jack :
1. It holds. I claim 12/13 tricks depending on the ♦Split (if they don't split I'll give them a Heart).
2. West takes her Queen. I check Diamonds. If they split I claim. If East discards, I'll hope for a stiff ♥K . If West had the stiff ♦Q, I'll take the remote chance of a Red squeeze against East.

Same line that I tough about after defending and that I now counted to be the best line with priori odds (84.9%).

But there is one line that may sometimes be superior if you know something about black suit distributions (priori 82.3%, but a lot worse chance for overtrick ~30%). So for example someone might discard one first club or spade. Too bad I didn't analyze entries for counting so counting the hand is not possible with these cards because of missing entries.

So counting is not possible but lets assume that east or west opened weak 2♠ and lead is still same. This will make choosing line very interesting.

Then because there is combined 33 HCP it is very likely that your opponents are in 6NT too which means over should influence line a bit too in teams. If you gain over trick 30% time more and go 1% time down. you will get (-17*1+1*30)/100=+0.13 IMPs gains for going after overtrick. (ok. You have to subtract the psychological negative effect for going down in slam) So overtricks do matter but not enough in practice to influence line in slam. Over tricks are really useless if there is chance that opponents don't bid the slam

[dellache]

suokko, on Nov 8 2009, 02:32 PM, said:

So counting is not possible but lets assume that east or west opened weak 2♠ and lead is still same. This will make choosing line very interesting.

What would be even more interesting is the following : East opens 4♠, and West's lead is still the same.

Question : how many Clubs does West hold in average ? And what is the probability that West is lefthanded now ?

I think that gives you excellent clues to solve your original problem especially when nothing like this really happens (unless it is full moon of course, in which case other rules will apply).

[Winstonm]

jdonn, on Nov 8 2009, 03:27 AM, said:

Winstonm, on Nov 7 2009, 10:06 PM, said:

Low from dummy and win in hand.  Low heart toward the J.  Assuming the jack wins, I lead a second heart and duck all around.  Eventually, I will cash the heart Ace to try to fell the Kxx on the left before I try the diamond finesse.

My plan is to win 4 clubs, 3 spades, 3 hearts, and 2 diamonds or to win 4 clubs, 3 spades, 2 hearts, and 3 diamonds.

It seemed obvious to me to just play on diamonds and your line hadn't occured to me, so let me think about it.

Essentially, you're gaining (versus just going to dummy and playing on diamonds right away) when diamonds don't break, the diamond is offside, and K or Kx or Kxx of hearts is on your left (in other words that's the scenario when you make and I go down). You're losing when the diamond is offside, the diamonds do break, and either the king of hearts is on your right or Kxxx(x)(x)(x) is on your left.

The diamond being offside is a wash in both cases so ignore that. So you are weighing:
- Short heart K on left + stiff Q or Qxxx of diamonds on left
- Long heart king on left or K of hearts on right + Qx or Qxx of diamonds on left.

The hoped-for heart scenario in your line is less likely (by a lot) than in the line of playing on diamonds. And the hoped-for diamond scenario in your line is less likely (by a lot) than in the line of playing on diamonds. Your line is far inferior to just playing a club to dummy (if the jack of spades is covered at trick 1) and taking a diamond finesse.

In fact it's even worse than it looks. I calculate the layout you gain over playing on diamonds (hearts in the shorter holding on your left + diamonds not breaking with queen on your left) as 4.53%. I calculate the layout you lose to playing on diamonds (hearts in the longer holding on your left or in any holding on your right + diamonds breaking 3-2 with queen off) as 24.36%. In all other cases (such as diamond onside in any holding) playing on either red suit first either both make or both go down, so you are giving up 20% to the obvious line.

It's also worse for the overtrick for obvious reasons although that really doesn't matter.

Agree with your assessment. But there is a third alternative.

Another point about trying hearts first is that IF LHO holds the heart king and any length, he or she must duck, giving you the tempo, at which point you can revert back to diamonds.

On the other hand, if you take the diamond finesse first and it loses, and then the diamonds are 4-1, you cannot go back and try to pick up hearts for three tricks. (Granted, this only is important if LHO holds precisely K, or Kx and the diamonds are 4-1 on the left. Still it is enough extra edge to build a casino around I think. ) Of course this loses if the diamonds are breaking with the Q offside and the heart king to the right.

Granted, the diamonds are only offside 4-1 about 12.5% of the time.

I don't know what the percentages would be for K, Kx, or Kxx of hearts in LHO's hand. I would think that whatever that percentage is plus 50% would be the total for the first line I proposed versus simply attacking diamonds - which looks to me to be around 87.5%.

I was originally thinking about how to combine chances to the greatest effect but on further review believe you are right that simply starting on diamonds is superior.

[dellache]

Winstonm, on Nov 8 2009, 05:30 PM, said:

Another point about trying hearts first is that IF LHO holds the heart king and any length, he or she must duck, giving you the tempo, at which point you can revert back to diamonds.

On the other hand, if you take the diamond finesse first and it loses, and then the diamonds are 4-1, you cannot go back and try to pick up hearts for three tricks.  (Granted, this only is important if LHO holds precisely K, or Kx and the diamonds are 4-1 on the left.  Still it is enough extra edge to build a casino around I think.   )  Of course this loses if the diamonds are breaking with the Q offside and the heart king to the right. 

Granted, the diamonds are only offside 4-1 about 12.5% of the time. 

I don't know what the percentages would be for K, Kx, or Kxx of hearts in LHO's hand.  I would think that whatever that percentage is plus 50% would be the total for the first line I proposed versus simply attacking diamonds - which looks to me to be around 87.5%.

I was originally thinking about how to combine chances to the greatest effect but on further review believe you are right that simply starting on diamonds is superior.

There is no need to compute exact percentages to see that the "diamond line" is better than the "heart line" :
1. The diamond line MAKES at least when Diamonds break 3-2, or East has the Diamond Queen. That's at least 68+1/2(32) = 84%. We don't count extra chances.
2. The heart line FAILS at least when East takes the Heart Trick and the Diamond Queen is off. That's at least 25%. That means the Heart line is LESS than 75%.

Diamond line > 84% >> 75% > Heart line.

[jdonn]

Winstonm, on Nov 8 2009, 12:30 PM, said:

Another point about trying hearts first is that IF LHO holds the heart king and any length, he or she must duck, giving you the tempo, at which point you can revert back to diamonds.

On the other hand, if you take the diamond finesse first and it loses, and then the diamonds are 4-1, you cannot go back and try to pick up hearts for three tricks.  (Granted, this only is important if LHO holds precisely K, or Kx and the diamonds are 4-1 on the left.  Still it is enough extra edge to build a casino around I think.  )  Of course this loses if the diamonds are breaking with the Q offside and the heart king to the right. 

Granted, the diamonds are only offside 4-1 about 12.5% of the time. 

I don't know what the percentages would be for K, Kx, or Kxx of hearts in LHO's hand.  I would think that whatever that percentage is plus 50% would be the total for the first line I proposed versus simply attacking diamonds - which looks to me to be around 87.5%.

I was originally thinking about how to combine chances to the greatest effect but on further review believe you are right that simply starting on diamonds is superior.

That's easier to compare. The heart is on your left 50% of the time. Diamonds break 68% of the time. So it's obviously better to choose a line that gains when diamonds break than one that gains when the heart is on your left.

Also to correct some of your percentages. LHO has either Qxxx of diamonds or stiff Q of diamonds 14.13% of the time. Also the odds west has the heart king with no more than 3 hearts are about 28.16%. To be honest I don't know what your 50% represents, but even giving you that your 87.5% estimate is too high by almost 10%. Whereas diamonds breaking or 4-1 with queen on the right or stiff queen combines to over 84%, clearly better.

I think you are grasping at straws when the obvious answer is staring you in the face. Sounds like the conspiracy-theorist's line.

[Winstonm]

Quote

To be honest I don't know what your 50% represents

Diamond queen onside.

Quote

Also the odds west has the heart king with no more than 3 hearts are about 28.16%.

So the total odds would be about 78%. 28% for hearts plus 50% that diamond Q is onside. (If the heart J loses to the king, then the hand still makes if the diamond queen is onside.)

Clearly it is better to play on diamonds.

Quote

I think you are grasping at straws when the obvious answer is staring you in the face. Sounds like the conspiracy-theorist's line. smile.gif

I just hate to put all my eggs in one basket even if the other basket is broken.