[dburn]

A "Butler" tournament is a pairs tournament with IMP scoring (the scores on each board are averaged to produce a datum, and each pair IMPs its own score against the datum).

Assume the field passes the hand out (a rash assumption that almost never comes to pass, but it will suffice for the moment). Now: if we open and partner has nothing much, we will lose 100 or (rarely) 200 - 3 or 5 IMPs. If we open and it is our hand, we will win 3 or (rarely) 4 IMPs. The question thus boils down to: how likely is this to be our hand? And the answer to that depends to a very large extent on partner's and the opponents' attitude to opening the bidding. If our side opens a significant proportion of 11-point hands, vulnerable in second seat, we should probably pass. If their side opens a significant proportion of 11-point hands, not vulnerable in first or third seat, we should probably bid.

Since I don't know what Hanoi's partner's style is, nor what his opponents' style was, I don't know what he should have done. Myself, I would bid, since one of my partners has had considerable success with the policy of always opening the bidding in fourth position. "If", he says, "the opponents can make anything, one of them should have opened the bidding."

[junyi_zhu]

jdonn, on Oct 27 2009, 05:17 PM, said:

junyi_zhu, on Oct 27 2009, 12:14 PM, said:

Hanoi5, on Oct 27 2009, 02:30 AM, said:

Red vs White, after three passes you're looking at:

♠QJx
♥Jxx
♦Kx
♣KQxxx

What's your call? It's a butler tournament if you need to know...

I pass, too many Qs and Js for a 4th seat opening. facing an average 7-8 HCP, this hand doesn't play very well. If I have one more spade, I'd open for sure.

You are missing 28, so partner's average is 9.33. In addition RHO passed in 3rd seat, so partner's average is probably pretty close to 10.

I am not saying partner's average HCP is 7-8. I am saying facing a normal "average" 7-8 HCP with one ace or two kings, this hand doesn't play very well. Especially because your main suit is club, which can be killed by diamonds, hearts and spades, and you may not be able to show your 5 card club suit when your opp find their major suit.
Also, if both sides have 9 card fit, you will be most likely in clubs and you actually don't have much defensive value against 3S/H/D, cause you have CKQ in your 9 card fit. So basically if both sides have a 8 card fit, you can be out bid by them, if both sides have a 9 card fit, you don't have much defense. Even changing the club suit to diamond may improve your situation significantly.

[jdonn]

You are right if partner's hand is worse than usual, we will do worse than expected. But that is why we look at the average, to decide how we will do in the most common cases, not in the worst possible cases.

[dellache]

1NT... weak.

[Jlall]

dellache, on Oct 27 2009, 02:41 PM, said:

1NT... weak.

One of the downsides of weak NT in 4th seat seems to be that you can't play 1M anymore. You also are opening 1N less frequently.

Of course on the plus side sometimes you will get to play 1N when they could have found a making 2 level partscore otherwise.

[dellache]

Jlall, on Oct 27 2009, 07:42 PM, said:

dellache, on Oct 27 2009, 02:41 PM, said:

1NT... weak.

One of the downsides of weak NT in 4th seat seems to be that you can't play 1M anymore. You also are opening 1N less frequently.

Of course on the plus side sometimes you will get to play 1N when they could have found a making 2 level partscore otherwise.

I don't really open 1NT less frequently. In 4th the probabilities of the different BAL ranges (it of course depends on oppos style in 3rd -- this is probably not true against Meckwell for instance) :
12-14 : 31%
13-15 : 32%
14-16 : 31%
15-17 : 28%

So if you consider frequency only, it doesn't matter.
I'm not going to advocate for weak notrump in 4th (we play it any vul, any pos). We are happy with this style. You get ups and downs. 1NT is difficult to defend, and you have lot of inferences from the P-P-P sequence when you declare. Also when you play 2M in the 5cM of responder, you often make. Also sometimes 1NT is a good sac against their 2M contract (even at this vul).

OTOH, yes, sometimes we would love to bid 1m (P) 1M end. You cannot have your cake and eat it

[skjaeran]

I'm passing more often in 4th seat than most I know, and my impression is that I'm winning on those decisions.

But this is an opener for me. 1♣ is clear.

[fred]

Suppose you open 1C (I would) and partner responds 1S.

Would you Pass or bid 1NT? Why?

If you said you would Pass a 1S response, would you also Pass a 1H response?

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[jdonn]

fred, on Oct 27 2009, 04:35 PM, said:

Suppose you open 1C (I would) and partner responds 1S.

Would you Pass or bid 1NT? Why?

If you said you would Pass a 1S response, would you also Pass a 1H response?

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

I would pass either, because I fear partner inviting game if I take another call. The main reason to bid again is it makes it more likely you can keep the opponents out for the entire auction, but I have no especially strong desire to do that since I still think we have the most strength and after I pass our hands are better described than theirs.

[Jlall]

fred, on Oct 27 2009, 04:35 PM, said:

Suppose you open 1C (I would) and partner responds 1S.

Would you Pass or bid 1NT? Why?

If you said you would Pass a 1S response, would you also Pass a 1H response?

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

Definitely pass 1S imo, you have good spades so a 4-3 should be fine, and there is less of a need to bid 1N in order to shut them out (compared to if we had hearts, and they might find a spade fit and be able to compete to 2S).

Bidding has a lot more merit over 1H since a 4-3 heart fit might suck compared to 1N, and we might let them find spades by passing, but I would still pass just to keep it low.

[gnasher]

fred, on Oct 27 2009, 10:35 PM, said:

Suppose you open 1C (I would) and partner responds 1S.

Would you Pass or bid 1NT? Why?

If you said you would Pass a 1S response, would you also Pass a 1H response?

I almost never pass partner's response with a hand that I'd have opened in first seat. I don't see why I should make it easy for them to compete, and I don't see why I should unilaterally decide what strain we're playing in. The risk of partner moving isn't that great, and if he does it doesn't have to be bad.

[fred]

Jlall, on Oct 27 2009, 09:41 PM, said:

fred, on Oct 27 2009, 04:35 PM, said:

Suppose you open 1C (I would) and partner responds 1S.

Would you Pass or bid 1NT? Why?

If you said you would Pass a 1S response, would you also Pass a 1H response?

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

Definitely pass 1S imo, you have good spades so a 4-3 should be fine, and there is less of a need to bid 1N in order to shut them out (compared to if we had hearts, and they might find a spade fit and be able to compete to 2S).

Bidding has a lot more merit over 1H since a 4-3 heart fit might suck compared to 1N, and we might let them find spades by passing, but I would still pass just to keep it low.

Totally reasonable answer IMO. My feelings are close to the same, but I mildly prefer to rebid 1NT over a 1H response.

I thought these were interesting questions to ask, because it seems weird to me that rebid considerations in an unobstructed auction when you hold a balanced 12-count should factor into the decision as to whether or not you open in 4th position.

But with this particular balanced 12-count I would feel rather sick about both of the only two choices in the (rather favorable) circumstance of the auction continuing 1C-P-1H-P-?.

A 1S response wouldn't exactly make me feel warm all over either. While passing clearly seems right on the basis of 1S rating to be a better contract than 1NT and also because Pass lets partner in on the fact that I have a crappy hand that rates to play reasonably in spades, passing could be really awful from a tactical point of view, especially at this vulnerability.

All of this has given me some cause to think that the decision as to whether or not to open 1C is closer than I originally thought.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[aguahombre]

I have made my opinion about passing 1/1 fairly clear on at least two other threads, so even though I might have found the hand I would consider passing a 1S response, it would be too painful to do it. Die with policy, in my twilight years.

[dburn]

fred, on Oct 27 2009, 04:35 PM, said:

Suppose you open 1C (I would) and partner responds 1S.

Would you Pass or bid 1NT? Why?

If you said you would Pass a 1S response, would you also Pass a 1H response?

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

Would pass a response in either major. True, passing 1♥ may not work so well if the opponents [a] have and [b] find an eight-card spade fit, or if 1♥ turns out to be a worse contract than 1NT would have done. But sometimes partner has five cards in his major (and sometimes he may suppress a weak four-card major to respond 1NT, because I might open a decent four-card major myself in fourth position).

Would never (well, hardly ever) rebid 1NT with a singleton in partner's major having opened 1m in fourth, so with five of his major, partner can correct to two of it if he would have transferred over a weak no trump. Moreover, passing one of his major almost always shows precisely three or an awful hand with four, so if he has five hearts he does not have to pass if dealer reopens with 1♠.

Have monitored my results at both IMPs and matchpoints from passing out hands in fourth position: currently running at about 40% and -2.5 IMPs per board over a number of years. Indeed, only a couple of days ago I threw in ♠Q ♥Jxxx ♦AKx ♣1097xx for almost a complete bottom (partner had some junky balanced 11 with ♣KJx, the cards lay well for us and badly for them, and we could make 110 in clubs or 120 in notrump while they could make 1♠ with double-dummy play).

To add to my remark that a lot depends on your opponents' style, I would say that in much of Europe, dealer will not have a shapely hand with a five-card major, because he would have opened two of that major to show a weakish 5-4 or 5-5 hand type. Hence he is less likely to overcall immediately than he would be in, say, the United States.

[gnasher]

fred, on Oct 28 2009, 12:46 AM, said:

I thought these were interesting questions to ask, because it seems weird to me that rebid considerations in an unobstructed auction when you hold a balanced 12-count should factor into the decision as to whether or not you open in 4th position.

But with this particular balanced 12-count I would feel rather sick about both of the only two choices in the (rather favorable) circumstance of the auction continuing 1C-P-1H-P-?.

A 1S response wouldn't exactly make me feel warm all over either. While passing clearly seems right on the basis of 1S rating to be a better contract than 1NT and also because Pass lets partner in on the fact that I have a crappy hand that rates to play reasonably in spades, passing could be really awful from a tactical point of view, especially at this vulnerability.

All of this has given me some cause to think that the decision as to whether or not to open 1C is closer than I originally thought.

Do you have your cart and your horse in the right order?

As I understand it, your reasoning is:
- 1♣-1♥-1NT shows a better hand than this
- 1♣-1♥-pass lets the opponents in cheaply
- Either of those is bad, so maybe I shouldn't open.

Instead, how about this:
- I want to open this hand, because it's more likely to be our hand than not
- I don't want to bid 1♣-1♥-pass
- Therefore 1♣-1♥-1NT includes this hand, and partner should bid accordingly.

[P_Marlowe]

Why not?

Passing is ok, but this would be a very unusual style,but as long as it is your partnership agreement, it would be ok, but if you have to ask, it is certainly
not an agreement.

And I plan to make a 1NT rebid.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[rhm]

Jlall, on Oct 27 2009, 11:28 AM, said:

TBH I think everyone goes through that phase where they start downgrading too often, especially with regards to opening with soft 12s and game forcing opposite an opener with a 12 count. You can always find negatives about a hand and focus on them.

When it comes down to it, you aren't going to win by downgrading often. Look for reasons not to downgrade. If you can find none, and then find many reasons to downgrade, it's probably reasonable to do so.

So what about this hand? We have a GOOD 5 card suit that we are going to get to open. Kx and QJx while not great are fine, the Q and J are worth more when together. A king is a good defensive value if partner starts doubling, and is a prime card. Those are lots of reasons not to downgrade.

Sure we have no aces, and we have a stranded jack, but in my experience winning players are not downgrading much. They're getting in there, they're getting to close contracts, and they're winning.

So don't downgrade this 12 count with 3 spades!

Frankly I am not impressed by these arguments and I find them circular

For the sake of the argument let us assume we can categorize 12 HCP hands into

-average,
- (significantly) below average and
- (significantly) above average.

Now your argument goes

"When it comes down to it, you aren't going to win by downgrading often"

Why? Essentially you treat below average hands the same as average hands, but presumable you will upgrade above average hands.
What it boils down to is that you either overbid below averages or underbid average hands.
Of course you can get lucky by doing so but the odds are not with you.

Note, that this has nothing to do with the question whether an aggressive or conservative style is more successful or whether the hand in question should be opened or not.
It has to do whether hand evaluation is a sensible practice in the first place and whether you should correct point count or not. But if not, why upgrade then?
Something is illogical here

For me the above hand is clearly below average not worth its 12HCP.
The reason is simple: No first round controls and no intermediates.

Nevertheless I would open the bidding in 4th position, but only just and because I am aggressive in fourth position. I would not open in first or second position.

"Kx and QJx while not great are fine, the Q and J are worth more when together"

Well let us assume you have 12 HCP

If you give one player 3 aces and an opponent 4 kings and deal the remainder randomly, the player with the 4 Kings will not have much of a chance in the long run against the player with 3 aces .
If you give him instead of 4 kings 4 quacks (qj) it gets even worse for him.
But if you distribute 12 HCP over quacks they necessarily have to be all together.
So this "togetherness" argument tends to apply whenever you have lower honors and since you need more of them to get to the same point count people claim
He my hand is not so bad, the queens and jack work together.
Another circular argument.

Rainer Herrmann

[Hanoi5]

Scoring: IMP

---

This is the complete hand. My partner didn't want to open his 12-count either so we got 0 instead of the 600 that everyone got in 3NT. How would you divide the fault here?

[nick_s]

K&R hand evaluator gives 10.3 for the N hand.

(http://www.jeffgolds...Jx+Jxx+Kx+KQxxx)

Personally, I'm still on the fence about whether it's a good idea to open the hand, and have enjoyed reading the comments.

The S hand is a clear 1NT (12-14) opener for me though.

[dellache]

Hanoi5, on Oct 28 2009, 01:52 PM, said:

Dealer: East Vul: N/S Scoring: IMP

♠ QJ3 ♥ J75 ♦ K2 ♣ KQ754 ♠ AT54 ♥ AK9 ♦ T83 ♣ 932 ♠ 976 ♥ 632 ♦ A9764 ♣ J8 ♠ K82 ♥ QT84 ♦ QJ5 ♣ AT6

This is the complete hand. My partner didn't want to open his 12-count either so we got 0 instead of the 600 that everyone got in 3NT. How would you divide the fault here?

I usually hate opening 12-HCP 4333 hands with 1♣, bud I would certainly have made an exception here, because of the 2 Tens and useful quacks. Even if North opens in 4th position, I don't see how you reach 3NT now, unless south goes crazy and bids 3NT himself (not really consistent with original Pass).

So I would give 75% blame to south, and 25% to bad luck (hand fit perfectly).

I would have bid 1NT(south, 12-14) 3NT.
If playing strong NT, 1♣ 2♣(F1), 2NT (nat NF) 3NT.