[EricK]

Open 1♥, rebid 2♦, and if necessary claim you had a ♦ mixed in with your ♥. That seems to solve all problems on this hand type.

[jdonn]

EricK, on Oct 17 2009, 02:31 AM, said:

Open 1♥, rebid 2♦, and if necessary claim you had a ♦ mixed in with your ♥. That seems to solve all problems on this hand type.

It solves the problem of what to bid (as does making any particular choice). It does not solve the problem of 4-2 major suit fits.

[Jlall]

I can never tell if the people who suggest 1H are joking are not. For all the possible 6 card fits you can get to (2S in the 5-1, 2D in the 5-1, 2C in the 3-3) with 1N, 2d, and 2C, you can add all those times up and it won't even come close to the amount that you land in a 4-2 heart fit by opening 1H. So it pretty much sucks for partscore bidding!

It also seems to suck for game bidding because you will get to 4H in a 4-3 when it's wrong very often because...you showed 5 of them!

It also seems to suck for competitive bidding where opening 1D is way better because you have not lied and might get to double spades for takeout or raise hearts if partner makes a neg X etc. Whereas if you start out by lying about a card in a major partner will judge badly what to do!

I mean I guess opening 1H mighta been cool 50 years ago when everyone played 4 card majors and didn't false preference to doubletons, but now that people know how to bid it's gonna backfire hard.

[Lobowolf]

655321, on Oct 15 2009, 09:46 PM, said:

1NT happily, this is not even an evil to be avoided.

A side benefit is that partner will no longer rebid his unsupported 5 card spade suits.

That's like saying (but with 3 fewer HCP) that you should open 1NT with a singleton regularly, with the benefit that partner will stop transferring into unsupported 5-card spade suits.

[fred]

If one of the new odds calculators that is part of the latest version of the web-client is to be believed (and if I didn't make any mistakes specifying constraints), the a priori odds of 1D-1S-1NT containing a singleton spade are about 30 to 1 against.

The assumptions I made:

- Only count hands with 12-14 HCP
- Only rebid 1NT with a singleton spade when 1453
- Open 1D with 4-4 in the minors
- Never raise to 2S with 3-card support

Note that the odds of a singleton spade increase once partner responds 1S. I haven't created an odds calculator that can take that into account yet

But probably it is reasonable to conclude that rebidding 1NT with most 1453 hands with 12-14 HCP should not significantly impact the set of hands with which responder should sign off in 2S over 1NT.

FWIW I am a big believer in rebidding 1NT with this pattern and I also bid 2S more often than not as responder with a weak hand and 5 spades. I basically don't get involved in worrying "partner might have a singleton spade". Sometimes when you do end up playing 5-1 spades, the result is similar (or even better) than it would have been had you passed 1NT.

And sometimes you get a bad result of course - the same will be true of any approach you take to this problem.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[aguahombre]

And do you have the same feeling about playing 4S in the 6-1 fit, when partner cannot use NMF and then bid his 6-card spade suit without showing serious slam interest?
Probably the answer to my question is that one's entire bidding structure affects whether rebidding 1NT with 1-4-5-3 is a good idea. Being a bit stodgy, I am not willing to change everything to allow for that--so will continue to show 2 or 3 spades with the 1NT rebid.

[fred]

aguahombre, on Oct 17 2009, 04:59 PM, said:

And do you have the same feeling about playing 4S in the 6-1 fit, when partner cannot use NMF and then bid his 6-card spade suit without showing serious slam interest?

Well if the methods I played over 1NT rebids were unable to reveal the singleton spade, it *might* make a difference, but I doubt it.

Remember those 30 to 1 odds, that 4S on a 6-1 fit might be the right spot, that good judgment might get you to 3NT on some hands with 6 spades (which will not infrequently be the best spot even if you have a 6-2 or 6-3 fit), and that similar questions could be asked about other approaches.

For example, if you rebid 2C (which I can understand) does your system ensure that you can never get to 5C or 6C on a 4-3 fit (to say nothing of the other bad things that might happen)?

As far as rebidding 2D is concerned, I am not even going to go there.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[aguahombre]

fred, on Oct 17 2009, 12:12 PM, said:

For example, if you rebid 2C (which I can understand) does your system ensure that you can never get to 5C or 6C on a 4-3 fit (to say nothing of the other bad things that might happen)?

Yes it (system) does, but unfortunately it doesn't ensure against a silly club contract at the two or three level on occasion

[fred]

aguahombre, on Oct 17 2009, 05:20 PM, said:

fred, on Oct 17 2009, 12:12 PM, said:

For example, if you rebid 2C (which I can understand) does your system ensure that you can never get to 5C or 6C on a 4-3 fit (to say nothing of the other bad things that might happen)?

Yes it (system) does, but unfortunately it doesn't ensure against a silly club contract at the two or three level on occasion

If you and your partner are smart enough to handle that then I strongly suggest you spend some time thinking about improving the way you play NMF (which is much more important even if you never rebid 1NT with a singleton and probably much easier than whatever you are doing to keep out of your 4-3 club fits).

If you play the popular (and good IMO) variation of NMF where 2C forces 2D for invitational hands and 2D is a game force, there are a lot of sequences with no obvious meaning that may well be idle in your system. If you use responder's 2NT rebid as artificial as well, then you have even more scope for doing some sexy things.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[Jlall]

Fred, do you like rebidding 1N with 1453 and 2C with 1444? Personally I like 1N with 1444 also for much the same reasons (finding hearts, playing 1N, avoiding silly partials).

In fact if it was just a partscore hand I would expect 2C to be worse on 1453 than 1444 because we are more likely to get to a 6 card fit (partner frequently bidding 2D with 2D, not as frequently passing 2C with 3 clubs).

I guess on other deals I would rather have 4 clubs for my 2C bid though (like if partner bids 4th suit forcing and I bid 3H 1444 seems like a much better shape to have than 1453).

Also I like raising sometimes with a small doubleton and 3 trumps.

All of this means that for me the chance of having a singleton spade on 1D-1S-1N is not insignificant, though still not that likely at all.

I will bid 2S on that auction on the "obvious" hands with 5 spades, I gave an example in another thread of KQT9x xx Qxx xxx I think. That hand will play better in the 5-1 anyways most likely. But a large majority of the time I will pass. I get the impression that Meckwell (who never bid 1N with a stiff and never raise wtih 3) go back to 2S like 90 % of the time that they have 5 spades and a weak hand. Is that closer to your style?

[fred]

Jlall, on Oct 17 2009, 05:27 PM, said:

Fred, do you like rebidding 1N with 1453 and 2C with 1444? Personally I like 1N with 1444 also for much the same reasons (finding hearts, playing 1N, avoiding silly partials).

In fact if it was just a partscore hand I would expect 2C to be worse on 1453 than 1444 because we are more likely to get to a 6 card fit (partner frequently bidding 2D with 2D, not as frequently passing 2C with 3 clubs).

I guess on other deals I would rather have 4 clubs for my 2C bid though (like if partner bids 4th suit forcing and I bid 3H 1444 seems like a much better shape to have than 1453).

Also I like raising sometimes with a small doubleton and 3 trumps.

All of this means that for me the chance of having a singleton spade on 1D-1S-1N is not insignificant, though still not that likely at all.

I will bid 2S on that auction on the "obvious" hands with 5 spades, I gave an example in another thread of KQT9x xx Qxx xxx I think. That hand will play better in the 5-1 anyways most likely. But a large majority of the time I will pass. I get the impression that Meckwell (who never bid 1N with a stiff and never raise wtih 3) go back to 2S like 90 % of the time that they have 5 spades and a weak hand. Is that closer to your style?

I generally believe in playing a system and style does not endplay me into not being able to use my judgment with common hand types. So I will sometimes:

- rebid 2C with the pattern we have been discussing (not very often at all)
- rebid 1NT with 1444 (over half the time and increasing in recent years)
- raise with 3-card support (only occasionally, but I would probably do it more except my partner doesn't like this)

I must say that I don't remember ever having rebid 2C or 2D with a 5-card suit in recent years, but I suppose I could (barely) imagine a hand with which I might do that. There is nothing really systemic about my attitude toward this and it is possible that I am unreasonably biased against this practice.

For sure how often I do these sort of things should have an impact on how often I rebid 2S over 1NT with a 5-card suit. I can't say I am consiously aware of having adjusted my style in this area as my style in other relevant areas has changed, but I like to think that good bridge players are capable of making such adjustments without really thinking about it.

I think it is closer to 100% for Meckwell.

For me, with 5332 I will usually pass 1NT unless my spades are very strong and the rest of my hand is pretty crappy (like your example hand). That is not so much out of consideration for partner having a singleton spade - the extreme example is KQJ109 and out. Obviously this hand will always take 4 tricks in a spade contract but will take only 1 trick in notrump opposite xx in spades and usually only 2 tricks in notrump opposite xxx in spades.

When I think a 5332 hand is close, I will sometimes let my holding in partner's minor be the deciding factor.

With non-5332, I would usually bid 2S.

I have no idea what the numbers work out to, but I would guess I rebid 2S about 80% of the time.

I would be surprised if I ever give the question of whether to Pass 1NT or to bid 2S on some particular hand more than a second or two of thought (and probably I do that thinking before partner even rebids 1NT). These decisions can be pretty random and are not worth losing a lot of sleep over IMO. Just doing what feels right with any given hand makes a lot of sense to me.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[eyhung]

fred, on Oct 17 2009, 09:00 AM, said:

Note that the odds of a singleton spade increase once partner responds 1S. I haven't created an odds calculator that can take that into account yet. 

Fred, I think I can provide a slightly better simulation. As you may have noticed, I've been playing with scripts that model all the hands, using Thomas Andrews's deal program. The process is not completely robust, but I think the results are still interesting.

Parameters:
* South has 12-14 HCP, a 1D opening, at most 5 diamonds, at most 3 clubs, at most 3 spades. [This is robust.]

* West does not have an overcall, preempt, or takeout double of 1D. [Not as robust -- may contain hands like 85 T94 75 KQJ943, or hands that might bid Michaels or U2N -- still haven't added support for this yet.]

* North has any hand that would respond 1S to 1D, in a Walsh style -- could contain a longer suit if North holds non-game-forcing value. [Robust -- i.e., does not contain hands that are 4-4 in the majors.]

* East does not have an overcall, preempt, or takeout double of 1S. [Same comment as applied to West's pass.]

* No hands where South holds 3 spades are thrown out -- we assume South needs 4 spades to raise. [Robust.]

-----------------

In 1000 deals that fit these parameters, South has:

1 spade 66 times
2 spades 426 times
3 spades 508 times

So, with the slightly flawed opponent passing routines, the odds have doubled from 30:1 against to approximately 15:1 against. Eliminating some 3-card holdings would increase the odds even more. Perhaps any 3-card spade holding with a stiff, or any 3-card spade holding containing a high honor and a worthless doubleton on the side? I can program that in.

[jdonn]

Obviously you at least eliminate hands where south has 3 spades and a side singleton.

[eyhung]

eyhung, on Oct 17 2009, 02:17 PM, said:

Perhaps any 3-card spade holding with a stiff, or any 3-card spade holding containing a high honor and a worthless doubleton on the side?  I can program that in.

Turns out it wasn't so hard to throw this parameter in.

Results with no South round-suit singletons or worthless doubletons containing 3 spades to a high honor, 10000 hands dealt:

1 spade : 799
2 spades : 4925
3 spades : 4276

So, the odds appear to be 11.5 : 1 against.

[Jlall]

eyhung, on Oct 17 2009, 04:31 PM, said:

eyhung, on Oct 17 2009, 02:17 PM, said:

Perhaps any 3-card spade holding with a stiff, or any 3-card spade holding containing a high honor and a worthless doubleton on the side?  I can program that in.

Turns out it wasn't so hard to throw this parameter in.

Results with no South round-suit singletons or worthless doubletons containing 3 spades to a high honor, 10000 hands dealt:

1 spade : 799
2 spades : 4925
3 spades : 4276

So, the odds appear to be 11.5 : 1 against.

Can you add in 1444 and see how that changes it?

[eyhung]

Jlall, on Oct 17 2009, 02:44 PM, said:

eyhung, on Oct 17 2009, 04:31 PM, said:

eyhung, on Oct 17 2009, 02:17 PM, said:

Perhaps any 3-card spade holding with a stiff, or any 3-card spade holding containing a high honor and a worthless doubleton on the side?  I can program that in.

Turns out it wasn't so hard to throw this parameter in.

Results with no South round-suit singletons or worthless doubletons containing 3 spades to a high honor, 10000 hands dealt:

1 spade : 799
2 spades : 4925
3 spades : 4276

So, the odds appear to be 11.5 : 1 against.

Can you add in 1444 and see how that changes it?

Good point. That was rather careless of my parameter setting to filter out 1444 hands as well as [32]44 hands which ought to rebid 1NT. South now does not have :

* 6 diamonds
* 4 spades
* 5 diamonds and 4 clubs (but could have 4 diamonds and 4 clubs)

Note that South always bids 1D with 4-4 in the minors -- I don't make any judgement calls on whether to override 4-4 in the minors to 1C.

I also added another stat, to track the average HCP of the singleton, and I increased the sample size to 100000 hands.

New results:

Average spade length = 2.22771
Average singleton spade HCP = 0.8676683039583936
0 spades = 0
1 spades = 13844 (4x1 = 8084)
2 spades = 49541
3 spades = 36615

Wow. That was quite a difference. So the majority of 1NT singleton rebids are 1444, and the odds against a singleton for the rebid are now 6.2:1 against.

[Jlall]

eyhung, on Oct 17 2009, 05:03 PM, said:

Wow. That was quite a difference. So the majority of 1NT singleton rebids are 1444, and the odds against a singleton for the rebid are now 6.2:1 against.

OK cool, this matches my experience having played this style a lot.

[Jlall]

fred, on Oct 17 2009, 12:55 PM, said:

For me, with 5332 I will usually pass 1NT unless my spades are very strong and the rest of my hand is pretty crappy (like your example hand).

With non-5332, I would usually bid 2S.

I have no idea what the numbers work out to, but I would guess I rebid 2S about 80% of the time.

Fred,

I would consider on this auction that most non 5332s would be able to bid 2H or 2D (for you probably bidding 2D via a 2C relay). Like 5-4 majors bids 2H obv, 5-4 with diamonds gets out in 2D.

So the only real non 5332s here hands with side clubs. Probably 5332s are more common than hands with side clubs (not sure?) so if you pass with most 5332s it seems like 80 % was an overbid.

Anyways I feel like you and I are pretty close in what we do actually. We seem to be the same with 5332...I guess I pass a lot with 5314 also when you wouldn't, but with 5134 I would bid very often and 5224 would depend on my suit quality (I would need good spades), and I would always bid with 5-5.

[Ant590]

Another (probably dumb question), do any of you rebid 1NT on a 4=1=4=4 after 1♦-1♥?

[eyhung]

Jlall, on Oct 17 2009, 03:19 PM, said:

fred, on Oct 17 2009, 12:55 PM, said:

For me, with 5332 I will usually pass 1NT unless my spades are very strong and the rest of my hand is pretty crappy (like your example hand).

With non-5332, I would usually bid 2S.

I have no idea what the numbers work out to, but I would guess I rebid 2S about 80% of the time.

Fred,

I would consider on this auction that most non 5332s would be able to bid 2H or 2D (for you probably bidding 2D via a 2C relay). Like 5-4 majors bids 2H obv, 5-4 with diamonds gets out in 2D.

So the only real non 5332s here hands with side clubs. Probably 5332s are more common than hands with side clubs (not sure?) so if you pass with most 5332s it seems like 80 % was an overbid.

Anyways I feel like you and I are pretty close in what we do actually. We seem to be the same with 5332...I guess I pass a lot with 5314 also when you wouldn't, but with 5134 I would bid very often and 5224 would depend on my suit quality (I would need good spades), and I would always bid with 5-5.

This is actually a good discussion for me because I just played a hand where my partner held

AQxx 432 ATxx A2

Matchpoints, both vul

Our auction went :

1D 1H
1NT [1S anti-system] 2H
?

Partner passed, I thought he should have invited to 3H given the immense power of aces in a suit contract.

Surprisingly, when I simmed the hand, if partner is guaranteed to hold 6 hearts (but never 6-4 shape) with 4-9 HCP, then game is 55%, indicating he should bid 4H!
A big factor is that the opponents are passing -- meaning we get good breaks.

After adding decent 5-card heart suits (QJTxx or better) to the mix, game is 46%, suggesting an invite is probably ok, even at matchpoints.

Now that I can see some better judgement parameters for the rebid of 2H (never 5332 unless weak outside hearts, always otherwise), I'll be happy to rerun this.