rhm, on Oct 6 2009, 10:42 AM, said:
Most Bridge players would open this hand 1NT without second thought.
I believe the true mistake is in opening this hand 1NT and the fact that you consider raising to 7NT more or less proves this.
The hand should be upgraded to a balanced 18-19 and opened 1♦ with the intention to jump rebid in notrump.
This is at worst a slight overbid for notrump game evaluation but is certainly correct for suit evaluation and for slam purposes.
Rainer Herrmann
Trinidad, on Oct 6 2009, 10:53 AM, said:
In my view you need to evaluate hads differently based on where you are going.
Well they pay bonuses for game and slam.
Of course you do not know where you are going when you pick up a hand, but you should immediately evaluate how suitable your hand is for a high level contract.
If I downgrade a hand and make a trick more in a low level part-score, who cares? Precision at the game and slam level is what matters
Trinidad, on Oct 6 2009, 10:53 AM, said:
If you make a decision whether to bid game or not good old HCPs, with some adjusting for distribution, degree of fit, etc. works just fine.
This is just too simplistic:
HCP works reasonable in low level notrump contracts. For game decisions, particular suit contracts HCP is a poor guide and even you indirectly admit this by speaking about numerous "adjustments".
Trinidad, on Oct 6 2009, 10:53 AM, said:
Suppose you hold a hand like:
♠ QJxx
♥ KQJ
♦ Kxx
♣ KQJ
You have 18 HCPs, but you decide to downgrade to 16 because of the 4333 and the "quackiness" of the hand. So you open a 15-17 1NT. If partner passes, and puts 3HCPs in dummy, you expect to make 1NT, despite the fact that you called this a 16 point hand. In other words, at the part score level, the hand is actually worth about 17.5 points.
I am not so sure you would make one notrump, but yes HCP works well at the one-notrump-level (BIG DEAL!)
Trinidad, on Oct 6 2009, 10:53 AM, said:
Now, partner invites game by bidding 2NT. You need to be fairly pessimistic to pass that. So, at the game level, the hand is worth about 16 points.
That's why I downgraded to 16 points
Trinidad, on Oct 6 2009, 10:53 AM, said:
Now take the same hand, again you open 1NT. Partner bids Stayman, you respond 2♠ and -for lack of methods and for the sake of this argument- he jumps to 5♠ as a quantitative invitation to 6♠. Should you accept? In my opinion you shouldn't. If partner has what you need, he wouldn't have bid just 5♠. He would have decided to bid 6♠ himself. Therefore, at the slam level, the hand is worth 14-15 points.
Differently to you I would be quite worried to go down in 5 spades!
Trinidad, on Oct 6 2009, 10:53 AM, said:
Now, take the other extreme: 4 aces and spaces. You consider it a good 17 HCP hand and open 1NT. If partner passes and puts down 3 HCPs, you now that you are in trouble. So at the part score level, your hand isn't worth that "good 17 HCPs", it may actually be worth less than 15.
I open 1 Diamond and I am not in trouble
Trinidad, on Oct 6 2009, 10:53 AM, said:
If your partner invites game, you will accept, since, for game evalution it is a good 17.
I would be worried that partner will consider his hand not worth an invite (7-8 HCP with few controls) and we end up in 1NT and 3 overtricks
Trinidad, on Oct 6 2009, 10:53 AM, said:
And if your partner invites a slam, you will have a hand that falls outside your 15-17 NT range. Now you have about 19.
So, when you are evaluating at the slem level, quacks are less valuable and controls are more valuable, not only for the purpose of control, but also for the possibility to develop tricks.
So, your method of hand evaluation needs to depend on the level (and denomination) that you want to bid for. At low levels at NT, quacks have relatively high value. At high level in suits, quacks become less important and aces rule.
Now this is nothing new. We all know this. But it means that at the time that you pick up a balanced hand with 4 aces, and you have to make an opening bid, you don't know whether your 4 aces are worth less than 15 or as much as 19. Blaming opener for opening a 15-17 1NT with 4 aces is therefore a bit unfair.
BTW: Would those that consider this an 18 point hand open the hand a 20-21 2NT if I would add two points by changing the lowest spade into the ♠Q? What would they say if partner puts 3 HCPs in the dummy?
Rik
Of course I would