[kenrexford]

Jlall, on Sep 16 2009, 08:47 PM, said:

Too pessimistic Ken. Even Axx KTxxx xx Qxx is a good slam (as long as you play it well), and not even kenrexford himself would last train over this.

QJx KQxxx xx Qxx also will not last train though it is tricky to play (and much better with the HT but in all likelihood if you ruff the club lead and play the SK from dummy they will win it).

Actually, whereas I probably would not with the second, I would with the first. The fifth trump, headed by the Ace or King, a side Ace, and a doubleton diamond? Looks like LTTC for me.

Responder is able to visualize hands, too. If Opener has a stiff club, such that we lose that trick, he needs about KQx-AJxx-AKxxx-x to make the slam percentage. Or, Kxx-AQxx-AKJxx-x is good too. If Opener could have less than this for the splinter, Opener could reject my LTTC call. If Opener could accept the move with a tweener hand, we could stop at 5. So, why would I not move below game?

[jmcw]

The_Hog, on Sep 16 2009, 07:44 PM, said:

jmcw, on Sep 17 2009, 01:14 AM, said:

ONEferBRID, on Sep 16 2009, 10:12 AM, said:

And, most importantly, the 4C! splinter shows support ( at least 4 cards ) whereas 3C does not guarantee support-- it is just forcing and ostensibly asks for a stop as a first priority.  You later can show support, but it will be at the 4-level, which actually wastes space and doesn't guarantee at least 4 cards.

If you Splinter as you suggest. Partner will be bidding 4♥ at his next turn and you have learned nothing about his hand (wasting tons of space). If you commit to the 5 level on these cards a ♠ lead could easily have you down off the top

Are you serious? Partner has learned A LOT about YOUR hand. If she bids 4H it shows there are wasted C hons and slam is probably a bad bet.

Very! Given your holding it seems unlikely partner will bid anything other than 4♥! in response to your splinter. Now what?.
Bidding 3♣ now gets YOU information at a lower level. For instance if he calls 3NT you will know he has wasted value in ♣. He may even call 3♦, or3♠ don't you think this is helpful?
Splinters by definition largely pass control over to partner. I don't think this is the right think to do on these cards.

[jmcw]

aguahombre, on Sep 16 2009, 03:27 PM, said:

therefore, 4C and then pass if he signs off (XXX KQXXX XX KQX for instance).

Would you also sign off with Qxx Kxxxxx Qx Kx? or Axx Qxxxx Qx Qxx? or Qx Kxxxxx Qx Kxx?

[kenrexford]

jmcw, on Sep 17 2009, 01:27 PM, said:

aguahombre, on Sep 16 2009, 03:27 PM, said:

therefore, 4C and then pass if he signs off (XXX KQXXX XX KQX for instance).

Would you also sign off with Qxx Kxxxxx Qx Kx? or Axx Qxxxx Qx Qxx? or Qx Kxxxxx Qx Kxx?

Wouldn't you bid 4♦ Last Train with all of those hands?

[Jlall]

kenrexford, on Sep 17 2009, 06:54 AM, said:

Responder is able to visualize hands, too. If Opener has a stiff club, such that we lose that trick, he needs about KQx-AJxx-AKxxx-x to make the slam percentage. Or, Kxx-AQxx-AKJxx-x is good too. If Opener could have less than this for the splinter, Opener could reject my LTTC call. If Opener could accept the move with a tweener hand, we could stop at 5. So, why would I not move below game?

Guess I don't agree with you, partner has already shown 10+ with 5+ hearts, all of openers proposed hands can drive to the 5 level at least (or even just bid keycard).

If you are expecting partner to splinter and sign off with KQx AJxx AKxxx x then you are really overloading the last train. I would consider it normal to splinter with just about any hand with 4 trumps and a stiff club and reasonable prime values like Axx Axxx ATxxx x. So if that hand splinters and signs off as well as the first hand, everything is just too overloaded. Responder can't drive to the 5 level that aggressively (could have my hand), and also can't sign off very much (could have your first hand), so he is stuck bidding last train 90 % of the time which will make it ineffective.

Perhaps we have differing opinions based on widely different expectations of the splinter. If my partner bid last train I would CERTAINLY move with KQx AJxx AQJxx x (I mean honestly who wouldn't? It's a full 5 points better than my suggested minimum splinter).

[OleBerg]

If I have 5♣ = Voidwood available, I will not hesitate to use it.

Even pessimisticly expecting to face:

♠ = Qxx
♥ = Kxxxx
♦ = xx
♣ = Wastage

slam is not unreasonable. And just add a little, and we are fine.

Of course I can get to high, but +510 with 13 pedestrian tricks looks silly too.

[kenrexford]

Jlall, on Sep 17 2009, 03:24 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Sep 17 2009, 06:54 AM, said:

Responder is able to visualize hands, too.  If Opener has a stiff club, such that we lose that trick, he needs about KQx-AJxx-AKxxx-x to make the slam percentage.  Or, Kxx-AQxx-AKJxx-x is good too. If Opener could have less than this for the splinter, Opener could reject my LTTC call.  If Opener could accept the move with a tweener hand, we could stop at 5.  So, why would I not move below game?

Guess I don't agree with you, partner has already shown 10+ with 5+ hearts, all of openers proposed hands can drive to the 5 level at least (or even just bid keycard).

If you are expecting partner to splinter and sign off with KQx AJxx AKxxx x then you are really overloading the last train. I would consider it normal to splinter with just about any hand with 4 trumps and a stiff club and reasonable prime values like Axx Axxx ATxxx x. So if that hand splinters and signs off as well as the first hand, everything is just too overloaded. Responder can't drive to the 5 level that aggressively (could have my hand), and also can't sign off very much (could have your first hand), so he is stuck bidding last train 90 % of the time which will make it ineffective.

Perhaps we have differing opinions based on widely different expectations of the splinter. If my partner bid last train I would CERTAINLY move with KQx AJxx AQJxx x (I mean honestly who wouldn't? It's a full 5 points better than my suggested minimum splinter).

Justin, I think you are still caught in an all-or-nothing analysis. Opener also has more options other than a signoff and 4NT RKCB after Last Train.

Your example of Axx-Axxx-ATxxx-x is not a minimum splinter opposite the proposed hand of Axx-K10xxx-xx-Qxx. Both partners have the spade Ace. This is not an irrelevant omission, as Kxx-Axxx-A10xxx-x is far less impressive, as you know.

But, consider your example of KQx-AJxx-AKxxx-x. Opposite the proposed hand, slam makes when hearts split 2-2 and diamonds no worse than 4-2. Or, slam makes when hearts split 3-1 with the stiff Queen falling and diamonds split 3-3. Or, slam makes when hearts split 4-0 with RHO having the fourth heart, diamonds split 3-3, and we have spots. So, that's not a bad hand for a slam. Why would Opener sign off with that?

Plus, Opener can make a move in response to Last Train, like a 4♠ cue. Responder then rejects any such nonsense and bids 5♥ to show a really bad LTTC bid. Or, whatever.

So, I don't think anyopne signs off with that hand.

Now to the second hand. You had KQx-AJxx-AQJxx-x. This is a much lesser hand. You need partner to have at least one black Ace, for starters. You also need the heart King or Queen, obviously. With only the club Ace, not spade Ace, you need something also working in spades.

Plus, you want another red card, as you do not have great transportation to take two finesses and do all the work. So, you need something like Axx-KQxx-xx-xxxx to make the slam a matter of a hook.

Granted, the fibe-level is not safe, meaning that you about have to tank this one after a Last Train call. But, if partner has a hand with the desired keys (spade Ace, heart K-Q, diamond K), he'd be an idiot to not accept, whether by simply asking for Aces or perhaps cues above game.

I mean, am I reading you right, about the "five points" nonsense? (LOL)

[Jlall]

kenrexford, on Sep 17 2009, 04:07 PM, said:

But, consider your example of KQx-AJxx-AKxxx-x. Opposite the proposed hand, slam makes when hearts split 2-2 and diamonds no worse than 4-2. Or, slam makes when hearts split 3-1 with the stiff Queen falling and diamonds split 3-3. Or, slam makes when hearts split 4-0 with RHO having the fourth heart, diamonds split 3-3, and we have spots. So, that's not a bad hand for a slam. Why would Opener sign off with that?

This was not my example, it was YOUR example lol, of a hand that would splinter and pass a sign off (you did not explicitly say this, but you said that responder must LTC with Axx Kxxxx xx Qxx to cater to this hand). I was saying that this hand is far too good to splinter and pass a sign off imo. Even if opener does have this hand, slam is not that great, and you will probably play at the 5 level after a keycard auction anyways.

So I think that last training with Axx Kxxxx xx Qxx is very bad, because even opposite one of your example hands I think partner should move opposite a signoff, and slam is not that great opposite your example hand. Hope that clears up my point.

Quote

Now to the second hand. You had KQx-AJxx-AQJxx-x. This is a much lesser hand.

Yes I know it is a much lesser hand, that is why I brought it up. With YOUR hand it is so good that it can drive to the 5 level itself. With MY hand it is a true inbetween hand, a good hand for a splinter but not a 5 level drive. These are the hands that last train will help you with. If partner signs off you can pass. If partner last trains you can move.

Quote

Granted, the fibe-level is not safe, meaning that you about have to tank this one after a Last Train call.

Glad you understand my point. If you bid last train with a hand as weak as Axx Kxxxx xx Qxx you will get to the 5 level very often when it is not safe. This is the consequence of bidding last train so often. The alternative is to miss some good slams because you sign off over last train when it's wrong because partners range is so wide.

Speaking theoretically, of hands not willing to drive past game you wouldn't you agree you'd like to bid last train 50 % of the time, and sign off 50 % of the time? That much is obvious. My point is that you seem to be bidding last train too often, and signing off to infrequently. This will cause you to have too wide of a range for bidding last train, and consequently cause you to bid less accurately.

The splinter already covers a wide range. 2H covers a wide range. Last train is a great tool to narrow your range before deciding if you're willing to go past the 4 level or not.

I will suggest that either:

A) You are overevaluating Axx Kxxxx xx Qxx or
Your splinters have a much stronger (and narrower) range than mine, so that you can drive to the 5 level with many more hands than I can as responder after the splinter, so that in fact you are not bidding last train too often.

Of course I'm sure you think I'm wrong also, hopefully you are able to see where I am coming from.

[kenrexford]

Actually, I do understand what you are saying. I suppose this makes sense, as a stylistic thing. If it wasn't for the 2♣ overcall, I'd probably be on the same page. I guess I would tend toward differet action with the lower-end splinters because I have options enabled by the overcall (like the cuebid followed by a shortness-based club call later if partner seems interested).

So, I suppose with the Axx-Axxx-Axxxx-x hand I would bid 3♣ and then cue if partner showed slam interest.

I guess I agree that your style works, but I maintain that I would actually make a last train move with a nice minimum because I would expect partner (incorrectty perhaps) to not commit to the splinter on the light hands when he has a simple cue available.

Interesting.

[jmcw]

kenrexford, on Sep 17 2009, 02:43 PM, said:

jmcw, on Sep 17 2009, 01:27 PM, said:

aguahombre, on Sep 16 2009, 03:27 PM, said:

therefore, 4C and then pass if he signs off (XXX KQXXX XX KQX for instance).

Would you also sign off with Qxx Kxxxxx Qx Kx? or Axx Qxxxx Qx Qxx? or Qx Kxxxxx Qx Kxx?

Wouldn't you bid 4♦ Last Train with all of those hands?

Its not in my toolbox.