[nigel_k]

Scoring: IMP

---

Fantoni, East, played 5♦ after an uncontested auction. After drawing trumps and eliminating the black suits you have to avoid three heart losers.

By leading up to each heart honour in succession you can make 75% of the time - whenever North has the queen or South has the Ace. So I don't agree with the VuGraph commentators who suggesting leading towards the king and ducking South's nine. You would go down more than 25% doing that. So what are the extra chances over the initial 75%?

There are two I can see:

1. Play for either Ax in North or Qx in South. If the former, start the suit from West and if the latter, start it from East. They'll have to give you a ruff and discard after taking the second heart. Since South showed out on the third spade, Ax in North is more likely.

2. Play for North to have A109(x) or South failing to stick in the 9 or 10 so you can duck a heart into North.

Fantoni chose #2 and went down when #1 works. So which is better?

There may be some inferences from opponents' failure to bid but East started with 2♦ so it would be hard for them.

[655321]

nigel_k, on Sep 7 2009, 08:08 PM, said:

2. Play for North to have A109(x) or South failing to stick in the 9 or 10 so you can duck a heart into North.

Fantoni chose #2 and went down when #1 works. So which is better?

Low towards the K, planning to put in the 8, or covering the 9/10 and planning to put in the 7 when North wins the K and continues hearts wins unless South has both the 9 and the 10, and North has the Ace.

If South does 'stick in the 9 or 10' from QTx or similar it doesn't help him.

[nigel_k]

655321, on Sep 7 2009, 08:21 PM, said:

Low towards the K, planning to put in the 8, or covering the 9/10 and planning to put in the 7 when North wins the K and continues hearts wins unless South has both the 9 and the 10, and North has the Ace.

You're right. For some reason I didn't pay attention to East's spots.

[gnasher]

It's unfortunate to have opened 2♦ on this. After a 1♦ opening, you might reason that South is unlikely to have a 2416 shape with Q10xx, because of his failure to overcall 3♣ at favourable. Or you would if I were South, anyway.

[Fluffy]

The dutch overcalled 1♥ on south's hand, but USA stopped in 3NT anyway.

[655321]

gnasher, on Sep 8 2009, 04:03 AM, said:

It's unfortunate to have opened 2♦ on this.  After a 1♦ opening, you might reason that South is unlikely to have a 2416 shape with Q10xx, because of his failure to overcall 3♣ at favourable.  Or you would if I were South, anyway.

Look at the vulnerability again

[MFA]

As said, 1 fails only with ♥A in north and at the same time ♥T9 in south. 3 chances to win.

After seeing spades 5-2 it seems close to try to cater to hearts 2-5 by playing heart to the J, and then heart to the K. 2 immediate chances + wins with all 2-5 distributions in hearts.

Probably 1 is better after all.

[gnasher]

655321, on Sep 8 2009, 12:43 PM, said:

Look at the vulnerability again

Ah yes. Maybe I wouldn't.