[Jlall]

imps

AKxx xxxx JT9x x

Starting on left, your side doesn't bid:

1C 1S
2D 3C
5C 6C

3C GF, 5C fast arrival. Do you X? What % of the time do you expect to beat them?

[Apollo81]

I wouldn't double, I'd expect to beat them less than half the time.

edit: thought this was the hardest of your set of 5

This post has been edited by Apollo81: 2009-August-10, 14:48

[nigel_k]

There aren't many hands where opener will consume all that space to prevent slam investigation while also ruling out 3NT. I think he has a distributional hand with sub-minimum reversing values, probably will 11 minor cards, e.g. ? ? KQxxx AKJxxx.

I wouldn't jump to 5♣ with that hand and a heart void because I'd want to keep slam in the picture. Some players would though and there are other hand types. I would expect to beat it less than 20% of the time, maybe more like 10%. Not enough, especially if they redouble.

[karlson]

I double for sure. They have heart tricks, so it's extremely likely that the spades, if they were cashing, are going away. And if we don't have two spade tricks, maybe my minor suit holdings will still cause them a problem occasionally.

I would expect to beat it maybe 10-20% of the time without a spade lead, and at least 40-50% with one. That's barely enough for double white, but clearly enough red.

[Echognome]

I would double. I really want the spade lead and the double is not likely to cost a lot extra. I expect to beat them maybe half the time with a spade lead.

[OleBerg]

Double.

Doesn't really speculate how often I'll beat it. I simply sacrifice a few points to get what is probably the right lead.

[Cascade]

If we are beating it we need a spade lead almost certainly.

Double

[Hanoi5]

I don't double.

[Phil]

I double. There is a good chance opener is 2-2 in the majors and will be able to pitch away a spade on the 3rd heart.

[655321]

Double for the lead, hard to see a non-spade lead being best for the defense.

Double might be a bit safer on this auction - if Opener has no spades he will redouble and make 12 or 13 tricks, but would he really jump to 5♣ with a void?

[Jlall]

Phil, on Aug 10 2009, 05:42 PM, said:

I double. There is a good chance opener is 2-2 in the majors and will be able to pitch away a spade on the 3rd heart.

You think declarer bid 5C on 2245, bypassing 3N?

[dake50]

Won't partner lead a heart almost always costing a trick? Risk 120 +50 (freakily rare 240 +100 if redouble) for a spade lead.

[Phil]

Jlall, on Aug 10 2009, 06:10 PM, said:

Phil, on Aug 10 2009, 05:42 PM, said:

I double. There is a good chance opener is 2-2 in the majors and will be able to pitch away a spade on the 3rd heart.

You think declarer bid 5C on 2245, bypassing 3N?

Then make it 2146; IDC.

[peachy]

Jlall, on Aug 10 2009, 02:57 PM, said:

imps

AKxx xxxx JT9x x

Starting on left, your side doesn't bid:

1C 1S
2D 3C
5C 6C

3C GF, 5C fast arrival. Do you X? What % of the time do you expect to beat them?

Dbl. It is only a small loss if 6C is cold on any lead AND teammates are also in slam but undoubled. If teammates are in 5C, nothing matters except when spade lead is needed to set six. They didn't use any science in the auction - distant chance that my partner has four clubs and my diamond holding could be a big enough nuisance. With a spade lead, I'd expect we set it half the time.

[WesleyC]

I wouldn't have found it at the table, but in hindsight I really like the double here. Even cashing one spade might be enough if declarer is 1246 with a trump loser (and can discard the spade on a heart).

I'd expect a spade lead to set the contact an extra 25% of the time, plus 10% more when its going off on any lead. Some of the time teammates won't be in slam, in which case double hardly costs at all.

[Fluffy]

double, you aren't probably risking more than 1 IMP.

[xcurt]

I would not double. I've learned that when good opponents conduct blunt auctions like this it's usually because opener has a void in responder's suit so he can't splinter or bid exclusion.

A spade lead might even let them make it if declarer has void, Ax, whatever, we have some other deep trick, and they can ruff out the ♠AK to pitch the heart loser.

[pooltuna]

Jlall, on Aug 10 2009, 02:57 PM, said:

imps

AKxx xxxx JT9x x

Starting on left, your side doesn't bid:

1C 1S
2D 3C
5C 6C

3C GF, 5C fast arrival. Do you X? What % of the time do you expect to beat them?

yes I X and isn't a 25% rate worth the shot. Just a gut feeling on the actual numbers.

[skjaeran]

It's not like doubling isn't dangerous, you have to weigh in the possibility that LHO might redouble. He's probably short in spades too, for this sequence.

I'm going to pass, but it's close.

[Jlall]

I thought 2146 was more likely than 1246 because with the latter LHO would try to get to 3N. A spade void is possible, but with 0346 LHO would also try to get to 3N.

Anyways, I didn't love my chances to beat it (because LHO could have some bad 56 as someone said, or 74 or whatever), but I thought they were significantly better on a spade lead. Even though I thought they'd usually make I think X is right, especially since some percentage of the time your teammates don't bid slam.

As usual I run good and we cashed 2 spades and got an uppercut. It makes on a heart lead.