[Jlall]

MP

Txx x AKxx QT98x.

Partner opens 1N 14-16. You can bid 3H showing 31(54) gf, but choose to invite in NT, which systemically starts with 2C. Partner bids 2S. Your bid? Partner CAN have a 5 card major routinely and open 1N.

[xcurt]

My gut reaction is to bid 3♠ invitational. I'm not particularly thrilled with this hand for spades if partner has only 4 of them, and I imagine if he has 5 of them he is going to go anyway.

The game theory here is pretty complex. It's about 50:50 whether partner has 14 or 15/16. If the latter, the field is getting to game, and 3♠ will get us to game too. If the former, and partner has 5 spades, the field is still getting to game. So facing these hands 3S will produce one of

4♠ facing 5 of them, with the opponents having slightly different information about the closed hand than the field auction 1S-1N; 2m-3S (they know more about his strength, and they know he is balanced, but they don't know his relative minor suit lengths)

4♠ facing 4 decent or better spades and this could be a plus position for us (AK, Q, Q, AJ I'd rather be in spades, AK, K, Q, A I'd rather be in spades, but I can construct honor textures that prefer notrump).

3NT facing 4 (or maybe 5) weak spades inferentially implying good hearts, and this could be a plus position for us (A, KQ, Q, KJ I'd rather be in NT) and I'm happy to deter a spade lead.

If partner has 14 and not 5 spades the field is going to bid 1m-? and the opponents will bid hearts identifying the heart problem and pushing us to 3m, I'm happy to play spades and compare with these pairs.

[pooltuna]

Well since you needed to act with this hand instead of playing a pedestrian 1NT and partner showing 3♥ or fewer I would invite with 3♠

[Phil]

LOL nothing pedestrian about playing 1N +4.

3♠ for me.

Hopefully partner can cater to this hand type and try 3N with tenaces and bad spades.

[nigel_k]

If partner has five spades I want to be in 4♠ and if he has only four of them, I'd guess 2♠ is enough since 3NT probably doesn't make or we could get 140 instead of 130.

3♠ is not entirely logical as a compromise because I don't really want to invite anything. But I suppose partner will often go on when he has five spades anyway just because his hand will be stronger and we may well be ok at the three level if he passes with four spades and a minimum.

I don't normally open 1NT with a five card major but if I did it would be good to have some kind of asking mechanism using 3♣ and/or allow him to 'superaccept' with a five card suit. I'm assuming here you don't do that.

[gnasher]

I'd continue with my original plan and bid 2NT. Partner should bid 3S with five if he decides to accept the game try. 3S invites a ridiculous result opposite ♠Kxxx or something similar.

[WesleyC]

Tough hand - versus strong opponents I'll lock in a +ve score and pass 2S.

Opposite weaker opponents I'll try 3S.

[rhm]

Only if opener has 5 ♠ are chances for game worth pursuing at matchpoints.
This is against the odds and even if opener has 5 ♠, where opener is likely to accept any invitation, 4♠ might fail.

Hope that no game makes and Pass.

This is somewhat inconsistent because you wanted to invite, but no continuation is safe and you are now probably in a superior part score, which may be hard to reach at other tables. If 4♠ is the only game in a 4-3 fit, 170 or 200 should be an excellent score.
If you continue, I think 2NT is better than 3♠ since opener is likely to rebid a 5 card major and 4♠ on a 4-3 fit, if you raise to 3 ♠ looks against the odds.

A simulation (1000 deals) supports this assessment:

Opener balanced, 14-16 with 4 or 5 spades and spades longer than hearts:

3NT made double dummy only in 303 out of 1000 deals
4♠ made in 450 out of 1000 deals

Average number of tricks in notrump was 7.8 and 2NT made only in 606 deals.
Average number of tricks in ♠ was 9.35 and 2♠ made on 964 deals and 3♠ on 780 deals
2♠ was safer than 1NT, which made only in 832 deals

It is the same old story: At matchpoints protect your plus score.

This would be tougher vulnerable at IMPs

Rainer Herrmann

[Hanoi5]

3♠ or 4♠. I really regret not bidding 3♥. If partner's hearts are not good then he might have bid the spade game and if they were good enough (double stopper or better) then we'd be in 3NT which I wouldn't mind that much.

Anyway, my hand is better playing in a suit than in NT specially since my HCP don't cover for a game in NT unless partner has a maximum. At MP's 3♠ looks better now, I guess.

[Gerben42]

I will bid 3♠. I am no longer thrilled with NT since opss have 9 ♥

[hrothgar]

Gerben42, on Aug 1 2009, 02:17 PM, said:

I will bid 3♠. I am no longer thrilled with NT since opss have 9 ♥

This is an annoying hand

I can picture a lot of 14 point "perfect hands" where game is lay down. (And that's with me playing it rather than Justin"). Alternatively, there are a lot of ugly 16 counts where we won't have a prayer.

From my perspective, the key information that I'd want to know is how much strength is wasted opposite my stiff. (I'm much more interested in this than spade length)

Sadly, I doubt that I have any way to ask for the right information.

Don't suppose I could have a bit more information about followups?

[dake50]

Does H-xx count as a 2nd flaw when 5xS opens 1NT? Thus putting 1NT if 5xS has H-KJx or similar? Pass then seems best with expected H-waste.
Or would any 5332 with 5xS in 14-16hcp open 1NT? Now pure ambiguity.

[Apollo81]

Pass. I expect to beat anyone who's in a non-spade partscore, and anyone who's going down in game. Hopefully partner doesn't have a max with 5 spades.

[neilkaz]

Pass..also for me. I don't want to push towards what is quite possibly a thin game at MP.

[nigel_k]

Apollo81, on Aug 3 2009, 02:56 PM, said:

Pass. I expect to beat anyone who's in a non-spade partscore, and anyone who's going down in game. Hopefully partner doesn't have a max with 5 spades.

The problem is that most of the field will be opening one spade with a five card suit and their auction will go 1♠-1NT-2♣/♦-3♠-4♠. This will probably make even if partner has 14. So passing consigns you to a near bottom in that case.

When partner has only four spades, 2♠ will usually be the best spot. However, even when the raise gets you to a subpar contract (defeatable 3♠ when field is in 3♦ making 3-4, or defeatable 4♠ when field is making 3NT) there is still a decent chance for partner to save the board through superior card play.

That's why I like the raise.

[Fluffy]

pass 2 spades.

[Apollo81]

nigel_k, on Aug 3 2009, 10:16 PM, said:

When partner has only four spades, 2♠ will usually be the best spot.

...which will be true far more often than the case where partner has five spades.

[kfay]

I already really lucked out doing anything with this hand. Initially it looked like a guess between passing and trying to play in a minor, if my methods allowed that.

Pass seems really obvious now. Like you said, it is matchpoints.

Edit: I'm with Noble. I'm going over starts that they'll have at the other tables and if others are in game and make... well too bad. It's not our day. We beat probably everything else playing in 2♠.

[Jlall]

I passed. 3N was the best spot, partner had 16 with the perfect hand so we got a zero.

[WesleyC]

Crushed by your own NT range....

I think the fact that you passed 2S is a good sign that your original 2C bid was a poor choice.

I'd rather pass 1NT (hoping to balance with a double over 2H) or just punt an immediate 3NT (which might play well on a passive lead).