[xcurt]

kfay, on Aug 4 2009, 12:25 PM, said:

Edit:  I'm with Noble.  I'm going over starts that they'll have at the other tables and if others are in game and make... well too bad.  It's not our day.  We beat probably everything else playing in 2♠.

But they are going to be in game whenever partner has 15 or 16 (1N-3N) OR has 5 spades (1S-1N; 2m-3S; 4S-P). It's about 50:50 if partner has 15 or 16, and when he has 14 it's something like 2:1 against (don't hold me to this number I'm too lazy to calculate it right now) he has 5 spades. So you're comparing with a game contract 2/3 of the time. I don't know the blended rate of games making, but when partner has a 4xxx minimum the field will be in 3m or defending hearts. If they're in 3m and we can't make 3♠ we're at best tying the board (and might be losing it, since 3m looks like it has a shot for 130) so this situation is the reverse of the usual situation where we Stayman over 1NT with a bad invite and catch a fit and now we're ahead of the pairs who checked 1NT. In that situation we have positive matchpoint equity so we should be taking our AVG+ to the bank. Here we're looking at AVG-- in 2S (we only win if partner has a strong NT AND we can't make game, we lose if partner has a strong NT and game makes OR partner has spades and game makes), so we should keep bidding. We also get a little vigorish that partner can go back to NT with, say, Kxxx, AQTx, Qx, KJx and we just deterred the spade lead.

[pooltuna]

WesleyC, on Aug 4 2009, 10:53 PM, said:

Crushed by your own NT range....

I think the fact that you passed 2S is a good sign that your original 2C bid was a poor choice.

I'd rather pass 1NT (hoping to balance with a double over 2H) or just punt an immediate 3NT (which might play well on a passive lead).

these are roughly my sentiments