1NT-3M continuations
#1
Posted 2009-August-01, 03:52
The probabilty of a 5431 distribution is 12.9%. So the probability of 3154, 3145, 1354 or 1345 is 2.15%. I do not have to hand the probabilities of having this distribution as a game going hand opposite a 1NT opening bid, but my estimation is that if you play 50 serious hands of bridge per week the 1NT-3M with this distribution and the required strength will come up about once per year.
So with this rarity the convention has to be pretty good over its rivals. I have yet to find the continuations and foresee problems over the uncertainty of which way round the 54. Questions: After say 1NT-3♥
1. When do you rebid 4♥?
2. When do you rebid 4♣?
3. When do you rebid 4♦?
4. How do you settle for a 4-3 major suit game? Presumably a rebid of 3♠ would be showing a 5 card suit.
Oct 2006: Mission impossible
Soon: Mission illegal
#2
Posted 2009-August-01, 07:21
the Freman, Chani from the move "Dune"
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw
#3
Posted 2009-August-01, 07:28
Wackojack, on Aug 1 2009, 04:52 AM, said:
1. When do you rebid 4♥?
2. When do you rebid 4♣?
3. When do you rebid 4♦?
4. How do you settle for a 4-3 major suit game? Presumably a rebid of 3♠ would be showing a 5 card suit.
I wold play sth. like:
3♠ = searching for best game offering 4-3 spades, partner bids 4s with 3 good spades, 4m with the longer and good minor and maybe 3nt with stiff Q or J in hearts to offer partner to play there
3NT finishes he auction
4m shows a good fit and invites cuebids or a 5m signoff
4H shows a great hand with at least one fit
4♠ asks for dummy
4NT asks for better minor
5m sign off too
#4
Posted 2009-August-01, 07:31
The "frequency" problem is, IMO, illusory, especially if the rest of the system is really good as to pattern development. As suggested, it is not a matter of how frequently this precise pattern emerges. Rather, it is a comparison of how frequently it emerges as compared with any other unresolved patterns. If you can just about handle any hand pattern, but this one happens to be unresolved, and if 3M is not needed to handle any of the other patterns, then this seems like a useful tool.
-P.J. Painter.
#5
Posted 2009-August-01, 10:18
kenrexford, on Aug 1 2009, 08:31 AM, said:
The "frequency" problem is, IMO, illusory, especially if the rest of the system is really good as to pattern development. As suggested, it is not a matter of how frequently this precise pattern emerges. Rather, it is a comparison of how frequently it emerges as compared with any other unresolved patterns. If you can just about handle any hand pattern, but this one happens to be unresolved, and if 3M is not needed to handle any of the other patterns, then this seems like a useful tool.
I was focussing on the very low frequency just to emphasise that this method should be very much superior to other older methods in order for it to be well worth while.
Thinking aloud:
Lets say as suggested that 4NT = pick better minor. This takes care of 3-3 in minors. 4H can take care of 4-4. What about 4-3? Does it go into the 4NT or the 4H bag? Next 4-2. Presumably you have no choice but to bid your 4 card minor guaranteeing the fit. Now for 3-2. This looks like dangerous territory. Here it is odds on that you wont find an 8 card minor fit, so you are under pressure to play in 3NT if you have a double stop in hearts, or play in the moysian if you have 4 spades. Does this mean that if you are 4432 or 4423 and do not have a double stop in hearts that you are obliged to bid 3S to enable you to play in the Quote "strain that makes sense"? Maybe a 5-2 minor fit at the 5 level will play better than a 4-3 fit at the 4 level. Of couse you might have opened 1NT with a 5 card spade suit. Does that mean that you always jump to 4S to show this?
Also after 1NT-3S, does that mean you are under pressure to bid 4H with 4423 and not a double stop in spades?
Oct 2006: Mission impossible
Soon: Mission illegal
#6
Posted 2009-August-01, 11:57
George Carlin
#7
Posted 2009-August-01, 12:47
Wackojack, on Aug 1 2009, 11:18 AM, said:
kenrexford, on Aug 1 2009, 08:31 AM, said:
... this seems like a useful tool.
...Thinking aloud:
Lets say as suggested that 4NT = pick better minor. This takes care of 3-3 in minors. 4H can take care of 4-4. What about 4-3? Does it go into the 4NT or the 4H bag? Next 4-2. Presumably you have no choice but to bid your 4 card minor guaranteeing the fit. Now for 3-2. This looks like dangerous territory. Here it is odds on that you wont find an 8 card minor fit, so you are under pressure to play in 3NT if you have a double stop in hearts, or play in the moysian if you have 4 spades. Does this mean that if you are 4432 or 4423 and do not have a double stop in hearts that you are obliged to bid 3S to enable you to play in the Quote "strain that makes sense"? Maybe a 5-2 minor fit at the 5 level will play better than a 4-3 fit at the 4 level. Of couse you might have opened 1NT with a 5 card spade suit. Does that mean that you always jump to 4S to show this?
Also after 1NT-3S, does that mean you are under pressure to bid 4H with 4423 and not a double stop in spades?
Lets say as suggested that 4NT = pick better minor. This takes care of 3-3 in minors.
This also takes care of 4-4 in the minors. What difference does Opener's shape make to Responder, other than a gee-whiz factor?
4H can take care of 4-4.
No -- 4♥ either raises a heart fragment with no slam interest or is a general cue in support of a spade fragment with slam interest. Again, 4-4 can be shown via 4NT.
What about 4-3? Does it go into the 4NT or the 4H bag?
Support with four. Even if in theory the 4-4 might on some days not be ideal, it usually is, and system integrity is just fine living with that assumption.
Next 4-2. Presumably you have no choice but to bid your 4 card minor guaranteeing the fit.
That's such a horrible choice. WHAT?!?!? Of course you support with four-card support rather than with a doubleton. I don't even understand how this is a problem.
Now for 3-2. This looks like dangerous territory. Here it is odds on that you wont find an 8 card minor fit, so you are under pressure to play in 3NT if you have a double stop in hearts, or play in the moysian if you have 4 spades.
How is this "pressure?" This seems really easy. If we have all four suits stopped, with no major fit and no slam interest in a minor (let alone even a minor-suit fit for sure), we play 3NT. I mean, if the idea is that perhaps Opener with a maximum might want to make a quantitative invite somehow, he has one available. He bids 3NT, to show 15-17 HCP, quantitatively. Now, if RESPONDER is still interested in slam, 4♣ or 4♦ by him might tell the tale well. If Opener opts to bid a moysian major game in this situation, then Responder could make one last stab by bidding 5♣ or 5♦.
Does this mean that if you are 4432 or 4423 and do not have a double stop in hearts that you are obliged to bid 3S to enable you to play in the Quote "strain that makes sense"? Maybe a 5-2 minor fit at the 5 level will play better than a 4-3 fit at the 4 level.
Every so often in bridge life, you have to use judgment, and both partners might have to use judgment, and you might guess wrong anyway. Better to guess wrong with more information than with less information, I say.
Something about 5-card, 4-card...
No. It means that Opener bids whatever makes sense, expecting Responder to do likewise. If the fit is Moysian, that decision was likely made intelligently.
That said, Opener actually would tend to bid 4M more often with the Moysian and 3-other-major more often with a full five because you are less likely to be slammish when in the Moysian.
-P.J. Painter.
#8
Posted 2009-August-01, 18:56
If you play 5-4 in the minors, singleton in the mentioned Major and 3 cards in the other (Values for game only) the developments should be fairly easy:
Over 3♥:
3♠: 4♠'s offers to play there.
3NT: to play, at least 2 stoppers in ♥'s.
4♣: 3♣+
4♦: 3♦+ & 2♣
4♥: 4-4 in the minors (slam interest)
4♠: 5 cards
4NT: 4-4 in the minors just to play at the 5 level
5m: 5 card minor
Over 3♠ it'll be mostly the same but 4♥ could be 4 or 5.
After 4♣, responder would bid ♦ with 5♦ and 4♣ and over 4♦ with 4♦ and 5♣ 4 of the long Major. Then I guess opener will choose the best contract.
There might be some problems if the bidding 1NT-3M shows at least 9 cards in the minors (so it could be 6-3 or even 7-2!) and sing. or void in the mentioned Major and 2-3 in the other Major. This makes it a little more awkward but of course more frequent.
wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:
rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:
My YouTube Channel
#9
Posted 2009-August-01, 19:43
How do you bid 31(54) without playing this convention after a 1N opener? It seems every problem hand you've given, ie 4432 no double stop, is at least just as bad or not worse off without using this convention. Ken's right. Sometimes there are problem hands and no perfect solution, but at least this tool allows you the best opportunity to judge the correct spot. You've lost nothing on the problem hands and you've gained a huge advantage on hands where you have an easy decision.
You can certainly survive without playing 3M shortness, but it does fill in a few holes.
bed
#10
Posted 2009-August-01, 22:23
I think some people are using 3D to show short hearts and 3H to show short spades and expand the possibilities to include (41)44 hands (and maybe also (41)(53)).
#11
Posted 2009-August-01, 22:35
I played this for some time, and when it came up you got a great result. We bid numerous making 4-3 Major suit fits, where 3NT had no chance at all.
#12
Posted 2009-August-02, 01:11
The_Hog, on Aug 2 2009, 04:35 AM, said:
I played this for some time, and when it came up you got a great result. We bid numerous making 4-3 Major suit fits, where 3NT had no chance at all.
This reads as if you have stopped playing it. If that is the case, why?
#13
Posted 2009-August-02, 02:34
#14
Posted 2009-August-02, 03:07
TimG, on Aug 1 2009, 11:23 PM, said:
I think some people are using 3D to show short hearts and 3H to show short spades and expand the possibilities to include (41)44 hands (and maybe also (41)(53)).
With one partner I play 3♣ as Puppet Stayman and 3♦ as 55+ ♥+♠ and slam interest. (1NT-4♣ is: "Choose between 4♥ and 4♠.".)
With another partner I play 1NT-3m as (34)(15).
Rik
The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds the new discoveries, is not “Eureka!” (I found it!), but “That’s funny…” – Isaac Asimov
The only reason God did not put "Thou shalt mind thine own business" in the Ten Commandments was that He thought that it was too obvious to need stating. - Kenberg
#15
Posted 2009-August-02, 03:13
EricK, on Aug 2 2009, 02:11 PM, said:
The_Hog, on Aug 2 2009, 04:35 AM, said:
I played this for some time, and when it came up you got a great result. We bid numerous making 4-3 Major suit fits, where 3NT had no chance at all.
This reads as if you have stopped playing it. If that is the case, why?
I think it is an excellent structure and would continue to play it if I were still playing Bridge. I live in Laos and I doubt there are 3 other players in the country; if there were we would try to get a team together for the PABF.
#16
Posted 2009-August-02, 03:15
Trinidad, on Aug 2 2009, 04:07 PM, said:
TimG, on Aug 1 2009, 11:23 PM, said:
I think some people are using 3D to show short hearts and 3H to show short spades and expand the possibilities to include (41)44 hands (and maybe also (41)(53)).
With one partner I play 3♣ as Puppet Stayman and 3♦ as 55+ ♥+♠ and slam interest. (1NT-4♣ is: "Choose between 4♥ and 4♠.".)
With another partner I play 1NT-3m as (34)(15).
Rik
Rik, your 3D and 4C bid could easily be compressed into one bid, freeing up a bid for something else. 5/5 minors?
#17
Posted 2009-August-02, 05:31
So to focus on Hanoi's schedule - thanks for that.
Over 3H: 3S, 3NT, 4H, 4Nt and 5m seem to fit logically and intuitively. That's important as (sobering thought) I probably won't ever use all these responses in my lifetime, even if I play this convention with a few partners. The responses of 4C and 4D seem to make sense and have implications.
Taking 4D first listed as showing 3+ diamonds and exactly 2 clubs. Is responder now obliged to bid 4S if 3145 in case opener has 3 diamonds only? Conversely if 3154 and max, would responder next cue 4H telling partner he has 5 card support?
Next 4C listed as showing 3+ clubs. If 3154 would responder bid 4S for the same reasons? OTOH would opener with 4423 EVER with risk a bid of 4C in case there is only a 7 card fit in clubs? If this be so, then 4C would also show at least 3 diamonds. Then responder with say 4333, could show a 5 card diamond suit by next bidding 4D.
So if in say 2 years time it comes up that i have a game hand with 5134 opposite a 1NT opening and the bidding goes 1NT-3H-4D i will remember that this shows exactly 2 clubs and possibly only 3 diamonds.
Oct 2006: Mission impossible
Soon: Mission illegal
#18
Posted 2009-August-02, 06:37
The_Hog, on Aug 2 2009, 04:15 AM, said:
Trinidad, on Aug 2 2009, 04:07 PM, said:
TimG, on Aug 1 2009, 11:23 PM, said:
I think some people are using 3D to show short hearts and 3H to show short spades and expand the possibilities to include (41)44 hands (and maybe also (41)(53)).
With one partner I play 3♣ as Puppet Stayman and 3♦ as 55+ ♥+♠ and slam interest. (1NT-4♣ is: "Choose between 4♥ and 4♠.".)
With another partner I play 1NT-3m as (34)(15).
Rik
Rik, your 3D and 4C bid could easily be compressed into one bid, freeing up a bid for something else. 5/5 minors?
Sure, it could, but we don't want to.
From a useful space principle point of view, there is certainly enough room to put the 55+ Majors "to play game" hands in the 3♦ bid. But you don't want that.
The idea is similar to a Texas transfer with distributional hands that are essentially preemptive openings (weak 2 or 3M). One of the reasons to use Texas transfers is to bid immediately to the level that you want to play at (if you know that). If you would use a Jacoby transfer with such a hand, you give the opponents the room to find a save or even a making contract.
Our 4♣ response to 1NT is something similar, but now with both majors. Think of a hand like ♠KJxxx ♥KJxxx ♦x ♣xx or even ♠Qxxxxx ♥Qxxxxx ♦x ♣-. I know that it won't happen often, but when it comes up, it invariably scores. The question should therefore be: would there be an alternative, better use for the bid.
There is a convention that comes to mind immediately, but I don't think it is better.
Both minors would be a good idea, but we already have a good way to show 55+ minors (sign off, GF and "to play 5m").
Rik
The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds the new discoveries, is not “Eureka!” (I found it!), but “That’s funny…” – Isaac Asimov
The only reason God did not put "Thou shalt mind thine own business" in the Ten Commandments was that He thought that it was too obvious to need stating. - Kenberg
#19
Posted 2009-August-02, 12:12
TimG, on Aug 1 2009, 11:23 PM, said:
I think some people are using 3D to show short hearts and 3H to show short spades and expand the possibilities to include (41)44 hands (and maybe also (41)(53)).
3♣ Puppet (or Muppet)
3♦ 5-5 majors, invitational+
-P.J. Painter.
#20
Posted 2009-August-02, 12:25
George Carlin

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