[Fluffy]

♠2
♥9842
♦AK754
♣1083

Vul N-S, dealer east

(pass)-pass-(2♠)-pass
(pass)-???

[aguahombre]

if i don't, who will? Haven't had much success passing here, but this one is just about the bottom. I double.

[effervesce]

A queen more and I would reopen. But I pass with this hand.

[kfay]

Must double

[Cascade]

kfay, on Jul 13 2009, 06:53 AM, said:

Must double

Otherwise we will miss game when partner has a balanced 14 count.

[jdonn]

I double because I think the most likely hand for partner is a penalty pass, and it is probably one with good values so I think we will get a penalty.

[mtvesuvius]

Thin, but yes.

[Fluffy]

Thx for the replies, double was not the winner today, because it put a weak partner again into play, who made the wrong decision :/.


♠KJ9x
♥AKxx
♦-
♣KJ9xx

I think passing then bidding 4♥ is inconsistent, if you pass oyu have to pass the double, or maybe I am being biased. 4♥ down 1, 3 clubs makes, spades makes 5 or 6 tricks.

[Cascade]

jdonn, on Jul 13 2009, 09:19 AM, said:

I double because I think the most likely hand for partner is a penalty pass, and it is probably one with good values so I think we will get a penalty.

I think this will depend on how often the particular opponent raises and on what sort of hands and the style of their weak twos.

Nevertheless I would think that "most likely" is what you would call an "overbid".

[jdonn]

Cascade, on Jul 12 2009, 07:22 PM, said:

Nevertheless I would think that "most likely" is what you would call an "overbid".

Strongly disagree.

[mike777]

Fluffy, on Jul 11 2009, 05:49 PM, said:

♠2
♥9842
♦AK754
♣1083

Vul N-S, dealer east

(pass)-pass-(2♠)-pass
(pass)-???

Pass

Now I will read the posts and see why my wtp was wrong

[Cascade]

Don't you think vulnerable against not that there will be a strong incentive for partner to bid 3NT with 13-14 balanced.

[TimG]

Cascade, on Jul 12 2009, 09:59 PM, said:

Don't you think vulnerable against not that there will be a strong incentive for partner to bid 3NT with 13-14 balanced.

Opposite a passed partner?

[jdonn]

Cascade, on Jul 12 2009, 09:59 PM, said:

Don't you think vulnerable against not that there will be a strong incentive for partner to bid 3NT with 13-14 balanced.

Maybe but all I said is I believe partner's most likely hand type is a penalty pass.

[Cascade]

jdonn, on Jul 13 2009, 02:33 PM, said:

Cascade, on Jul 12 2009, 07:22 PM, said:

Nevertheless I would think that "most likely" is what you would call an "overbid".

Strongly disagree.

I have been doing some simulations and partner normally has three or four spades without a clear pass. And this is after RHO raises with some hands with three trumps. Only passes with weakish hands with some 4-3-3-3 or 4-4-3-2 or maybe 5-3-3-2.

[Cascade]

... and some of the hands where partner has a penalty pass we are only getting 100 or the opponents can run to a safer haven.

[jdonn]

What is wrong with getting 100? It's nothing special, but it's certainly not an argument against doubling since it works better than passing on those hands.

[Cascade]

jdonn, on Jul 13 2009, 03:41 PM, said:

What is wrong with getting 100? It's nothing special, but it's certainly not an argument against doubling since it works better than passing on those hands.

Nothing except you need a lot of them to make up for the -470s.

[jdonn]

All I'm saying is in that case your argument should have been "and some of the hands where partner has a penalty pass we are going -470" instead of "and some of the hands where partner has a penalty pass we are only getting 100". You made an argument in favor of doubling.

[Cascade]

The first ten hands off my simulation with a bit of eyeballing.

Take from it whatever you will ...

♠ A108xx ♥ KQx ♦ Jx ♣ xxx -470 (unless you don't pass with this)

♠ QJ98 ♥ AJ76 ♦ 86 ♣ AJ7 +100 if you pass -100/200/500 if you bid 4♥ (+140/-100 for 3♥)

♠ AQ108 ♥ QJx ♦ 9x ♣ Kxxx -470 or -100 or more if you bid 3♣

♠ K108x ♥ AKx ♦ Q9xx ♣ Jx -470 (if this is a pass) -200 at least in 3NT, +110 in 3♦

♠ AT976 ♥ KT ♦ 6 ♣ KJ964 -470 unless somehow you can get four trump tricks. Maybe make 3♣

♠ A764 ♥ AKJx ♦ 1098 ♣ Jx 9 tricks in spades, 8 tricks in hearts

♠ 10973 ♥ AKx ♦ Qx ♣ AJxx 2♠ is down one and 3♣ is five tricks + however many trumps you can get -they are Qx opposite Kxxx

♠ K87x ♥ Ax ♦ JTx ♣ AQ9x maybe +300 (but are you really passing with this stack) maybe only +100 I think 3♣ will make

♠ KJ763 ♥ Tx ♦ x ♣ AJ762 -470/+100 (we need three trump tricks to beat it) 3♣ probably makes