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But ultimately it's a lot easier to get to hearts after 2♦ than diamonds after 2♥.
and you say later:
"...(guess)whether to bid 3♥ after 1♥ 1NT 2♦ 3♦"
You state yourself it is a guess. You imply that 3♥ will frequently be an overbid if partner raises to 3♦ on many hands, and I agree.
I can get to diamonds easily enough when partner rebids 2N. This will be the time that it matters, since 2N is the main rebid partner can make that shows values.
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One last point is I don't see how the guess of whether to bid 3♥ after 1♥ 1NT 2♦ 3♦ is any different than the 'guess' of whether to bid 3♦ after 1♥ 1NT 2♥ 2NT or something. In neither case are we guaranteed a fit (granted it's very likely in the second case when partner bids 1NT instead of 1♠). I just don't see how you can claim a diamond raise leaves us poorly placed. With a very minimum hand you pass the 3♦ bid, otherwise you stretch to bid 3♥ at least secure in the knowledge you have a fit to fall back on.
After 1♥ - 1N - 2♥ - 2N, 3♦ isn't a 'guess', its bidding out my hand! Why would we ever pass 2N with a 6-4, especially when partner is marked with 8 and usually 9 cards in the minors? By the way, this seems like a meaningless sequence to those that are rebidding 2♦ on most minimum and maximum 6-4's, since we assuredly are denying 4 diamonds. This is very similar to the 1♠ - 1N - 2♥ - 2N thread we were discussing a few weeks ago where you thought 3♥ was forcing and I thought it was NF.
It is the "minimum" hand that passes (your) 3♦ raise that should be your concern. Just like you can build these 18 and 21 perfectos that are producing slams, I can produce many more 20-23 point non-perfectos that are producing 4♥ that you will be languishing in 3♦. Game in hearts has to take priority over finding game in diamonds.

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