[mtvesuvius]

KT6
J5
AQJ87
KQ8

What is this worth in terms of "points"?

Playing a 14-16 NT, would you open 1NT?

Also, please do not hesitate to use "wtp" or potentially "LOL" since I thought this was simple, but Lynn Deas and a few others thought otherwise.

Edit: Lynn and at least 5 others thought that this was worth 17.

[kenrexford]

4(3.33)=13.33. 13.33-16=-2.33. -2.33:-1.

16-1=15.

+1 for AQJxx = 16.

So, 16.

Answer: yes. Open 1NT. WTP, Lynn Deass and others notwithstanding?

What, they want +1 for the five-card suit but want to ignore the control-poor nature of the hand, and the stranded Jack for that matter?

I mean, the one 10 with the King is nice. I like that a lot. I could be persuded that this is 16.25.

[Lobowolf]

Most of the points are in aces and kings, and it's a got a good 5-card suit, so I can see thinking twice about upgrading it. However, on the downside, you have the doubleton jack, and no tens (or even nines). I'd call it a good 16, but I wouldn't upgrade it out of a 14-16 NT opener.

[mtvesuvius]

I also just checked this on the K&R Hand Evaluator and it said 15.75... Interesting.

[mikeh]

I am a big fan of upgrading into or beyond various notrump ranges, but this is not one on which I would upgrade. As others have stated, that jx is a negative feature for an upgrade. In addition, we have only 4 controls, which is about average for a 14-16 1N opener, so this is another 'non-upgrade' factor.

I don't have any rule about 'factors'... my decisions to upgrade or not are subconscious, in that I decide whether I 'like' the hand too much to open in the notrump range in question, but if I were to adopt a conscious analysis, I think that having an equal number of flaws and positives would mean don't upgrade. Here, the strong 5 card suit is a positive, the 10 in the K10x is a positive, but the Jx and the lack of 'extra' controls constitute offsetting negatives.

In other words, to upgrade requires on balance a compelling reason. This hand doesn't measure up imo.

A10x xx AQJ87 KQx is an upgrade for me.

[jdonn]

I don't upgrade as often as many, although I invite and bid game both on the light side. To me I wouldn't really consider upgrading this hand beyond a 16.

[rogerclee]

I've had a lot of bad experiences upgrading hands like this.

[Echognome]

Can't add much to the discussion. I would upgrade the nice diamond suit and downgrade the Jx. I would consider the hand 16 and open accordingly.

One other point is that when playing a 14-16 NT, we are then forced to rebid 2NT on 17-19, so I normally prefer to include good 16 counts in 1NT.

[gwnn]

16 wtp?

[gwnn]

amateur Woolsey imitation:

you have two flaws of calling this a 17-19 (or w/e):
1. it's 16!
2. Jx!

[Mbodell]

I think this is worth more than 16; however, I think it is much closer to 16 than 17. I'd be putting it at 16.25 or so. So I'd be opening it 1nt in a 14-16 nt system.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

16.

I would open 1NT.

It is a max. for this opening (and I would also sell
it as a max. playing 15-17).
The question is, if you dont open 1NT, what is the
alternative? Selling it as 17-18?

If yes, than this is find, if 17-19, I think the band with
is too high, you may find yourself begging partner
to stop bidding, sometimes one happens to have super
max.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[EricK]

16
1NT

[bill1157]

exact valuation aside, would you really want to open 1 and rebid 2NT over a 1 level response with this hand?

Bill

[mtvesuvius]

Thanks everybody for confirming that I hadn't lost my mind

[ArtK78]

mtvesuvius, on May 2 2009, 06:55 AM, said:

Thanks everybody for confirming that I hadn't lost my mind

No one said that - they just said that this hand was worth about 16 HCP.

[hanp]

It's a nice 16, definitely open 1NT.

[Winstonm]

Without looking at other answers I decided 16.

The negatives: Jx is worth next to nothing. Ths 5332 shape is so-so. It doesn't have good spot cards.

Positives: Good 5-card suit. Most of the secondary cards have support cards.

Positives and negatives pretty much wash out - I'd say 16 with a slight + but not enough to be 16 1/2.

[Cascade]

Lobowolf, on May 2 2009, 05:01 AM, said:

Most of the points are in aces and kings, and it's a got a good 5-card suit, so I can see thinking twice about upgrading it. However, on the downside, you have the doubleton jack, and no tens (or even nines). I'd call it a good 16, but I wouldn't upgrade it out of a 14-16 NT opener.

16 HCP has an average of around about 5.4 Controls. So while 10/16 HCP are aces or kings this is a below average number of aces and kings in a 16 HCP hand.

These functions are approximations (fairly good) to the numbers or aces, kings, queens, jacks in a hand with given HCP.

ACES = 0.15 * HCP - 0.5 e.g. with 16 HCP we expect 1.9 ACES

KINGS = 0.1 * HCP e.g. with 16 HCP we expect 1.6 KINGS

QUEENS = 0.05 * HCP + 0.5 e.g. with 16 HCP we expect 1.3 Queens

JACKS = 1 HCP. Yes independent of the number of HCP. e.g. with 16 HCP we expect 1 Jack.

The actual hand has

1 ACE which is 0.9 ACEs fewer than average

2 KINGs which is 0.4 KINGs more than average

2 QUEENs which is 0.7 QUEENs more than average

2 JACKs which is 1 JACK more than average

I also keep in my mind the approximation for CONTROLS (A=2 K=1) which you can obtain from the approximations above for ACEs and KINGs.

CONTROLs = 0.4 * HCP - 1 e.g. with 16 HCP we expect 5.4 CONTROLs as stated at the beginning of this post.

[mike777]

mtvesuvius, on May 1 2009, 11:56 AM, said:

KT6
J5
AQJ87
KQ8

What is this worth in terms of "points"?

Playing a 14-16 NT, would you open 1NT?

1) 16
2)YES
3) IF YOU want to value this at 17 ok...next hand.