[Old York]

Scoring: MP

Play 4♥ by North

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Contract 4♥ by North
East leads ♣AK then third Club, ruffed and over-ruffed
Trumps were originally 2-2
4♥= scores 26.47%
4♥+1 scores 71.81%

[nick_s]

How did the bidding go? I'm guessing N opened a strong NT. Does E have a natural 2♣ overcall available?

Based on having seen AK♣ from E, I'm playing W for the K♦.

[Old York]

There is no hidden trap here. There was no overcall at most tables and North opened a normal 1NT, South transfering and then bidding game. West did not double the 2♦ bid.
Edit: West signalled hi-lo and East continued with ♣2. West did not hesitate when ♦10 was led from dummy

I am only interested in the Diamond suit and the various reasoning behind placing ♦King in either hand
I am also interested in anyone's opinion of the huge difference in scores

Tony

p.s. Many declarers were given an undeserved overtrick when East switched to a Diamond

[Phil]

What was the ♣ spot that East played?

PS I find declarer play problems much easier to read when South plays it.

[nick_s]

One more thing...
After drawing trumps, I know E had 5 clubs and 2 hearts, and W had 2 clubs and 2 hearts. So the odds are 9 to 6 in favor of W having the K♦.

[hanp]

North declarer? This is too complicated. I would finesse west almost surely.

[kfay]

East has ♣s... W probably has ♦s

[Old York]

I obviously overanalyzed this at the table, but it occurred to me that many declarers would receive a Spade switch at trick 3. This would drastically reduce declarers options as a wrong guess in Diamonds would result in 1 down unless declarer played East for the ♦King

Not wanting to go against the field, I overtook ♦10 with Ace and ran the Queen, discarding the Spade loser... losing to the King for a bad result

The theory of vacant places does not give an overwhelming reason for running the Ten. At the moment of truth, after West follows suit on ♦10 at trick 6, West has 6 unknown cards and East has 5

I do not believe that the game of bridge should be distilled into a giant list of probabilities, many other factors should be taken into consideration (like what is likely to occur at other tables)

On the traveller, 102 players made (or were given) an overtrick
and 79 players made exactly 10 tricks (from 205 tables)
the remainder were typically insane results like 6♥x-2 and 3NTx+2

Tony